Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
246 AM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...

CAMs continue to have difficulty nailing down ongoing convection
overnight, but do show very little if any development west of
I-65. Would not be surprised though if the outflow from current
convection kicks off a few showers and storms as the environment
to the west still has over 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 50 knots of
0-6km shear. Ongoing convection will continue to ride the outflow
southward for areas east of I-65, and damaging winds/hail remain
the leading threats. Flooding will also be a concern as many areas
have seen training of heavy rainfall, so any additional rainfall
for those areas may cause localized flooding. For now, severe
tstorm watch is in effect until 9 am, but storms will likely be
out of the area well before then.

As the upper low over the southern Great Lakes region moves
southward today, chances for more showers and thunderstorms will
mainly impact areas along and east of I-65. Temperatures will be a
bit cooler today as the cold front moves through the area, and
will be even cooler on Sunday as the upper low is just off to the
east and helps bring in colder air aloft with strong upper
northerlies. Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms will
move in during the day Sunday with the upper low, and again
chances will be better east of I-65.

The upper low will develop into a deep trough during the early
part of the work week, which will keep chances for showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast mainly for afternoon hours. By
Thursday, another broad Great Lakes trough will move eastward, and
our stagnant trough will phase in with it. Long term models are
pretty consistent and similar with their solutions, which keeps
precip chances in through the weekend, so did not change too much
in the long term. At least for the first half of the week, with
the upper low continuing northerlies aloft with cooler air moving
in, highs will be in the mid to upper 80s. After the upper troughs
begin to phase on Thursday and Friday, highs may again creep into
the low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CKV/BNA/MQY/CSV...It looks like CSV will have the best chance of
experiencing a round of shwrs/tstms, and will break out a tempo
group to address this possibility. Will mention MVFR ceilings
and IFR vsbys with this TEMPO group. Otherwise, even with clr
skies and not much of activity noted to our northwest, still
can not rule out at least in the vcnty shwrs/tstms at the other
terminals at least thru 21/10Z. It still appears that another
round of shwrs/tstms could develop 21/18Z-22/02Z. However,
uncertainty still exist for actual location development at
terminals, but can not rule out in vcnty, and thus mentioned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      89  71  85  70  85 /  20  20  50  30  50
Clarksville    87  69  83  68  84 /  20  10  40  20  20
Crossville     81  65  75  64  77 /  50  30  70  40  60
Columbia       88  69  84  68  83 /  20  10  40  30  40
Lawrenceburg   88  68  85  67  83 /  20  10  30  20  40
Waverly        89  69  86  68  84 /  10   0  30  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........31

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Nashville TN
305 AM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018

TNZ028-030-032-062>066-075-077>080-221000-
Wilson-Smith-Putnam-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-
Bedford-Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-
305 AM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Overnight

Severe thunderstorms may be possible across a geographical
area of Middle Tennessee generally east and south of a
Lewisburg to Lebanon to Crossville line. Main concerns
with severe thunderstorms that do develop will be damaging
winds, large hail, and possibly a tornado or two.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms is expected
mainly Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening for
locations along and south of a Hohenwald to Columbia
to Celina line. With any strong to severe thunderstorms
that do develop, strong to damaging winds and large
hail will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation requested through the mid morning hours
on Saturday and possibly again Saturday afternoon and evening.

TNZ005>011-023>027-029-031-033-034-056>061-093>095-221000-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Trousdale-Jackson-Overton-
Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-Marshall-Wayne-
Lawrence-Giles-
305 AM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Overnight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms is expected
mainly Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening for
locations along and south of a Hohenwald to Columbia
to Celina line. With any strong to severe thunderstorms
that do develop, strong to damaging winds and large
hail will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Saturday afternoon into
Saturday evening.

Spotter Thunderstorm Reporting Criteria...

Tornado
Funnel Cloud
Flooding
Hail >= 1/2 inch
Wind > 50 mph (measured)
Structural Damage
Trees or power lines down

31

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