Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
906 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Convective trends and short term models coming more into line of
depicting best shwrs/tstm coverage continuing across eastern
portions of the mid state region, especially the Upper Cumberland,
thru tonight. Thus, will be scaling back shwr/tstm chances to the
west. However, certainly these locations also support the
continuance of tornado watch, as well as the above mentioned too,
with so much moisture and instability present across the entire
mid state region still. Taking a look at the 00Z/Sat KOHX
Sounding, it is showing a cornucopia of moisture and instability
indicies supportive of strong convective development, including LI
-11, CAPES 4,000 J/KG, BRN Shear 50 m2/s2, PW 1.84 inches, and
significant mid level lapse rates also. Furthermore, tweaked hrly
temp, dewpoint, and wind speed/direction grids. At least at this
hour, remainder of forecast continues to be on track. Thus, will
be issuing an update to the suite of forecast products shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CKV/BNA/MQY/CSV...With so much uncertainty to what actual impacts
will occur at specific terminals with potentially rounds of
shwrs/tstms, no continuous throughout period/hard to pinpoint
if they will actually develop and/or move over specific terminals.
Some of those tstms could be svr also. Thus mentioned VCTS at all
terminals 21/00Z-21/04Z, with TEMPO groups of predominate MVFR
vsbys/ceilings, and wind gusts to 30-35kts in between. Several
amendments possible thru at least the first half of valid TAF
periods because of this uncertainty. Maybe some lingering
shwrs/tstms after 21/07Z, but as of this time main impacts on
terminals look to end by that point. It looks like another round
of shwrs/tstms potentially 21/18Z-21/24Z. Will at least mention
VCTS at all terminals again as actual uncertainty continues in
actual impacts at terminal sites, but can certainly not rule out
development in vcnty.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......31
AVIATION........31

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Nashville TN
838 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-220145-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
838 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms tonight for
locations generally around and north of a Linden to Centerville
to Franklin to Carthage to Celina line. There is an enhanced
risk for severe thunderstorms for the remainder of Middle
Tennessee. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop through the evening hours across southern
Kentucky, then spread southeastward across Middle Tennessee into
this evening and overnight. With severe thunderstorms that do
develop, large hail, damaging winds, frequent cloud to ground
lightning strikes, isolated tornadoes, and brief heavy rainfall
will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms across the
southeast half of Middle Tennessee on Saturday afternoon into
Saturday evening. There is a marginal risk for the rest of the
mid state region Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.
A few strong to severe thunderstorms containing damaging winds
and or large hail will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested for tonight and might once again
be needed Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening across Middle
Tennessee.

Spotter Thunderstorm Reporting Criteria...

Tornado
Funnel Cloud
Flooding
Hail >= 1/2 inch
Wind > 50 mph (measured)
Structural Damage
Trees or power lines down

31

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
902 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             COOKEVILLE              36.16N  85.51W
07/20/2018  M1.50 INCH       PUTNAM             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT OF 1.5 INCH HAIL IN COOKEVILLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1800304

MACDONALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
925 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JAMESTOWN               36.43N  84.94W
07/20/2018                   FENTRESS           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO A HOUSE IN JAMESTOWN OFF OF HWY 52
            EAST. TREE DOWN ON STEVENS ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1800305

BW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
927 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 PM     HAIL             PLEASANT HILL           35.98N  85.20W
07/20/2018  E0.75 INCH       CUMBERLAND         TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN PLEASANT HILL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1800306

MACDONALD

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1020 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018

TNZ011-034-210400-
Fentress TN-Pickett TN-
1020 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PICKETT AND NORTHERN
FENTRESS COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

At 1020 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Byrdstown, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Byrdstown, Pall Mall and Pickett State Park.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for Middle
Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3660 8479 3653 8473 3640 8479 3654 8514
      3662 8514
TIME...MOT...LOC 0320Z 287DEG 20KT 3660 8508

Whitehead