Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
331 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Today started off active as an upper level trough associated with
the Great Lakes low helped form a complex of storms near and east
of Nashville around daybreak. That complex spread east through
the Upper Cumberland/Plateau the rest of the morning. That entire
area had at least 1.50 inches of rain (isolated totals much
greater) while early afternoon temps were suppressed down into
the upper 60s (!!) to lower 70s. Quite a deal for late June. New
storms...some causing reports of downed trees...formed in southern
KY by mid afternoon and were spreading across our northeast
counties at 20Z. These should exit our CWA by 22Z.

Looking west... a few other storms were developing by 20Z in our
northwest counties. Expect these to expand and intensify as they
move southeastward through areas that were south of this morning's
rains and therefore encounter an more unstable airmass. SPC Meso
page shows CAPEs exceeding 3000 J/Kg across the west and south
halves of the Midstate.

Should be a break in the storms this evening but additional
rounds/complexes of storms are possible late tonight into Thursday
thanks to a moist and unstable airmass along with northwesterly
upper level flow generated between the departing Great Lakes low
and the H5 ridge over the Southwest U.S. That H5 ridge will build
eastward toward TN later Thursday night and move across the state
on Friday, thus ending the northwest flow aloft. Higher heights
and thickness, rich moisture and increased insolation should make
Friday the most uncomfortable day in the short term. Heat indicies
should be mainly in the 102-105 range.

After Friday's slight decrease, POPs should trend a tad higher
Saturday and Sunday as the H5 ridge slides to our east. A warm
moist airmass will remain in place both days...with scattered
afternoon/evening storms and temps running a few degrees higher
than average.

Monday through Wednesday of next week looks a little warmer than
average with scattered afternoon and evening storms. Upper level
ridge axis will stretch from NM northeastward to PA, leaving TN on
the south side of that axis. This should produce light east or
northeasterly flow aloft. Models suggest extra moisture could be
provided by a westward-moving weakness on the south side of the
ridge...so POPs in the 30 to 50 percent range seem reasonable each
day.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Additional thunderstorms expected to develop near all airports
this afternoon with VCTS through 00Z. A break in activity is
anticipated this evening before more scattered showers or possibly
some thunderstorms affects the area tonight. VFR will be seen at
CKV/BNA/MQY through the period but CSV will have MVFR/IFR cigs/vis
at times this afternoon. Gusty southwest winds early in the TAFs
will become light after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  91  74  93  75 /  50  50  20  30  10
Clarksville    74  91  73  91  74 /  50  50  20  30  10
Crossville     70  85  70  87  70 /  60  50  20  30  20
Columbia       74  91  73  91  73 /  40  50  20  40  10
Lawrenceburg   73  91  72  91  73 /  40  50  20  40  20
Waverly        74  90  73  91  74 /  50  50  20  30  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......49
AVIATION........Shamburger

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
814 AM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-281130-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
814 AM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across
Middle Tennessee mainly this afternoon, then again late tonight.
The main concern with any strong to severe thunderstorms that do
develop will be strong to damaging winds. Minor flooding is also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
446 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2018

TNZ065-066-080-272215-
Cumberland TN-Van Buren TN-White TN-
446 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND...VAN
BUREN AND SOUTHERN WHITE COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 445 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Spencer, moving east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Spencer, Doyle, Virgin Falls State Natural Area, Indian Rock Lake and
Fall Creek Falls State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3576 8526 3575 8526 3573 8527 3572 8527
      3566 8532 3569 8560 3575 8559 3576 8561
      3577 8560 3579 8561 3579 8560 3580 8561
      3587 8561 3591 8515 3577 8515
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 270DEG 25KT 3578 8553

Rose

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
451 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2018

TNZ007-008-027-028-272215-
Robertson TN-Davidson TN-Wilson TN-Sumner TN-
451 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DAVIDSON...
SOUTHWESTERN SUMNER...NORTHWESTERN WILSON AND SOUTHEASTERN ROBERTSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 451 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Joelton, or 9 miles south of Springfield, moving east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gallatin, Springfield, Madison, Hendersonville, Mount Juliet,
Goodlettsville, White House, Millersville, Greenbrier, Coopertown,
Lakewood, Ridgetop, Old Hickory, Joelton, Whites Creek and
Cottontown.

LAT...LON 3649 8647 3622 8647 3627 8693 3632 8693
      3637 8691 3638 8691 3639 8692 3638 8693
      3645 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 270DEG 24KT 3636 8684

Rose