Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
331 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Today started off active as an upper level trough associated with
the Great Lakes low helped form a complex of storms near and east
of Nashville around daybreak. That complex spread east through
the Upper Cumberland/Plateau the rest of the morning. That entire
area had at least 1.50 inches of rain (isolated totals much
greater) while early afternoon temps were suppressed down into
the upper 60s (!!) to lower 70s. Quite a deal for late June. New
storms...some causing reports of downed trees...formed in southern
KY by mid afternoon and were spreading across our northeast
counties at 20Z. These should exit our CWA by 22Z.

Looking west... a few other storms were developing by 20Z in our
northwest counties. Expect these to expand and intensify as they
move southeastward through areas that were south of this morning's
rains and therefore encounter an more unstable airmass. SPC Meso
page shows CAPEs exceeding 3000 J/Kg across the west and south
halves of the Midstate.

Should be a break in the storms this evening but additional
rounds/complexes of storms are possible late tonight into Thursday
thanks to a moist and unstable airmass along with northwesterly
upper level flow generated between the departing Great Lakes low
and the H5 ridge over the Southwest U.S. That H5 ridge will build
eastward toward TN later Thursday night and move across the state
on Friday, thus ending the northwest flow aloft. Higher heights
and thickness, rich moisture and increased insolation should make
Friday the most uncomfortable day in the short term. Heat indicies
should be mainly in the 102-105 range.

After Friday's slight decrease, POPs should trend a tad higher
Saturday and Sunday as the H5 ridge slides to our east. A warm
moist airmass will remain in place both days...with scattered
afternoon/evening storms and temps running a few degrees higher
than average.

Monday through Wednesday of next week looks a little warmer than
average with scattered afternoon and evening storms. Upper level
ridge axis will stretch from NM northeastward to PA, leaving TN on
the south side of that axis. This should produce light east or
northeasterly flow aloft. Models suggest extra moisture could be
provided by a westward-moving weakness on the south side of the
ridge...so POPs in the 30 to 50 percent range seem reasonable each
day.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Additional thunderstorms expected to develop near all airports
this afternoon with VCTS through 00Z. A break in activity is
anticipated this evening before more scattered showers or possibly
some thunderstorms affects the area tonight. VFR will be seen at
CKV/BNA/MQY through the period but CSV will have MVFR/IFR cigs/vis
at times this afternoon. Gusty southwest winds early in the TAFs
will become light after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  91  74  93  75 /  50  50  20  30  10
Clarksville    74  91  73  91  74 /  50  50  20  30  10
Crossville     70  85  70  87  70 /  60  50  20  30  20
Columbia       74  91  73  91  73 /  40  50  20  40  10
Lawrenceburg   73  91  72  91  73 /  40  50  20  40  20
Waverly        74  90  73  91  74 /  50  50  20  30  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......49
AVIATION........Shamburger

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
814 AM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-281130-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
814 AM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across
Middle Tennessee mainly this afternoon, then again late tonight.
The main concern with any strong to severe thunderstorms that do
develop will be strong to damaging winds. Minor flooding is also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
456 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2018

TNZ028-030-064-272230-
Wilson TN-De Kalb TN-Smith TN-
456 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SMITH...NORTHWESTERN
DE KALB AND CENTRAL WILSON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 456 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lebanon, moving east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lebanon, Carthage, Watertown, Gordonsville, South Carthage,
Alexandria, Dowelltown, Liberty, Cedars Of Lebanon State Park and
Tuckers Crossroads.

LAT...LON 3604 8641 3623 8641 3627 8595 3600 8595
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 269DEG 24KT 3614 8632

Rose

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
500 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2018

TNZ027-028-062-272230-
Rutherford TN-Davidson TN-Wilson TN-
500 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DAVIDSON...
NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD AND SOUTHWESTERN WILSON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM
CDT...

At 500 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Antioch, or near Nashville, moving east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lebanon, Nashville, Smyrna, Brentwood, La Vergne, Mount Juliet, Oak
Hill, Walterhill, Rural Hill, Antioch, Belinda City, Berry Hill,
Cedars Of Lebanon State Park, Percy Priest Lake and Gladeville.

LAT...LON 3622 8630 3595 8630 3598 8666 3601 8671
      3601 8673 3603 8678 3604 8680 3617 8680
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 269DEG 28KT 3609 8671

Rose

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
506 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     N WHITE HOUSE           36.47N  86.65W
06/27/2018                   SUMNER             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN NEAR MOUNT VERNON ROAD IN WHITE HOUSE

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1800196

DAVIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
507 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     N COTTONTOWN            36.45N  86.54W
06/27/2018                   SUMNER             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES REPORTED DOWN ALONG JONES ROAD IN COTTONTOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1800197

DAVIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
514 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GAINESBORO              36.36N  85.65W
06/27/2018                   JACKSON            TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            FACEBOOK PHOTOS SHOWED NUMEROUS BUILDINGS AND ROADS
            FLOODED IN GAINESBORO

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1800198

SHAMBURGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
516 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW CASTALIAN SPRINGS 36.42N  86.32W
06/27/2018                   SUMNER             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN WITH CARS TRAPPED IN BETWEEN ON
            GREENFIELD LANE IN CASTALIAN SPRINGS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1800199

DAVIS