Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
427 PM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 421 PM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

Clearing skies on southeast flank of upper low, centered in central
NE, has allowed destabilization to take place...MLCAPE 1000 J/kg...2-
6km LR 7.5 C/km. At the surface, low pressure was centered in
southeast NE with attendant cold front extending across northern
KS and warm front from southeast NE into central MO.

An unstable environment coupled with adequate shear will be on
tap for strong to severe storms through this evening along and
south of the I-80 corridor. Large hail and damaging winds are the
primary hazards. In addition to this, isolated tornadoes are
possible especially over southwest Iowa.

Expect activity to come to a close shortly after midnight.

No major changes planned in the rest of the short term periods.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 421 PM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

Extended period forecast looks in good shape so no major changes
planned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

Expect shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase over the
next few hours. Generally MVFR ceilings are expected, with
isolated instances of IFR conditions. A few stronger storms may be
possible along and east of the Missouri River this afternoon
before VFR levels return around 00Z tonight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 421 PM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

Will maintain Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM for the northern CWA
given ongoing precipitation. Conditions remain favorable for
possible flash flooding in light of the excessive rainfall received
the last several days and latest RFC FFG. At this point, accumulated
amounts are running about 300-400% of normal over large portion of
the northern CWA. As of now, it appears that precip efficiency
will remain will remain favorable into early evening...4km llvl
warm layer...PWS 150% of normal...KI 40.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ012-015-
     017-018-030>034-042>044-050.

IA...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043.

&&

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...KG
HYDROLOGY...DEE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
420 PM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

IAZ043-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-050-261130-
Monona-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Butler-
420 PM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Iowa...east central Nebraska and northeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms will push across the
area through this evening. Due to the excessive rainfall as of
late and addition rounds of heavy rainfall, a Flash Flood Watch
remains in effect until late this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Monday

A few storms may develop Wednesday night.

Additional thunderstorms are possible by Friday night and into the
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotter activation is not anticipated through Tuesday.
However, any reports of flash flooding or heavy rain amounts to
the National Weather Service will be appreciated.

IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ045-051>053-065>068-078-088>093-
261130-
Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-Page-
Washington-Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-
Saline-Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
420 PM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...east central Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

An unstable environment coupled with adequate shear will be on tap
for strong to severe storms through this evening along and south
of the I-80 corridor. Large hail and damaging winds are the
primary hazards. In addition to this, isolated tornadoes are
possible especially over southwest Iowa.

River flooding will continue along the Missouri River from
Brownville downstream to Rulo. Small stream and creek flooding is
also possible in parts of the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Monday

A few storms may develop Wednesday night.

Additional thunderstorms are possible by Friday night and into the
weekend.

Minor river flooding is forecast to continue along the Missouri
River from near Nebraska City to Brownville and Rulo much of the
week. Flooding may develop farther north along the Missouri River,
especially around Plattsmouth to Nebraska City.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and this
evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
451 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2018

NEZ065-078-088-252230-
Jefferson NE-Seward NE-Saline NE-
451 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN SEWARD...JEFFERSON AND
SALINE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 449 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 6 miles southeast of Ohiowa, or 33 miles west of
Beatrice, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms along
with heavy rain.

Locations impacted include...
Fairbury, Milford, Friend, Dorchester, Beaver Crossing, Western,
Daykin, Goehner, Cordova, Endicott, Jansen, Tobias, Swanton,
Reynolds, Steele City, Swan Creek Reservoir Number 2, Swan Creek
Wildlife Management Area, Alexandria State Recreation Area, 11 Miles
West Of Wilber and Crystal Springs Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also possible with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4088 9736 4088 9700 4001 9701 4001 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 229DEG 35KT 4034 9737

FOBERT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
527 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2018

NEZ065-078-252300-
Seward NE-Saline NE-
527 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SEWARD AND NORTHERN
SALINE COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 525 PM CDT, emergency management reported a strong thunderstorm 5
miles south of Friend, or 25 miles southeast of York, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Low
level conditions are also sufficient for the development of
isolated and short lived funnel clouds.

Locations impacted include...
Friend, Dorchester and Blue River State Recreation Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4053 9737 4070 9736 4077 9700 4053 9700
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 226DEG 13KT 4057 9731

FOBERT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
533 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2018

NEZ089-252300-
Gage NE-
533 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GAGE COUNTY UNTIL
600 PM CDT...

At 532 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southeast of Plymouth, or 8 miles west of Beatrice, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Low
level conditions are also sufficient for the development of weak and
short lived funnel clouds.

Locations impacted include...
Beatrice, Pickrell and Rockford State Recreation Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4019 9692 4035 9691 4047 9667 4020 9657
      4016 9691
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 215DEG 27KT 4023 9690

FOBERT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
556 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2018

NEZ066-089-252330-
Gage NE-Lancaster NE-
556 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LANCASTER AND
NORTHERN GAGE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 555 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Clatonia, or 10 miles northwest of Beatrice, moving northeast at 30
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Low
level conditions are also sufficient for the development of weak and
short lived funnel clouds.

Locations impacted include...
Hickman, Firth, Cortland, Clatonia, Hallam, Pickrell, Adams, Roca,
Sprague, Stagecoach State Recreation Area and Olive Creek State
Recreation Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4029 9691 4054 9691 4070 9664 4045 9647
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 214DEG 30KT 4041 9684

FOBERT

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