Severe Thunderstorm Warning 175, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
649 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Main forecast problems are possible severe convection and flooding
in the near term.

Complex mesoscale pattern over the Central Plains.  Large MCS moved
across OK/southern KS last night and stabilized the air mass
across much of Kansas. Main low level moisture axis extends from
along the Missouri River Valley from northwest Missouri
southeastern South Dakota. In addition a surface trough extends
from near Hastings to Sioux City. Another boundary extends from
Sioux City Southeast into central Iowa. Air mass is unstable with
ML CAPE between 1500 to 2000 J/Kg. Convection has developed on
both boundaries. Effective bulk shear is weak over eastern
Nebraska and southwest Iowa, hence we can expect pulse storms
across the area. Surface vorticity is sufficient along these
boundaries to be conducive for non-supercell tornadoes and will
have to be watched closely.

As upper low moves into the Central High Plains tonight with a
strong shortwave rotating around the low across eastern Nebraska
Monday morning.  Overnight Thunderstorms are expected to travel east
and become an MCS across Kansas. Nebraska will be on the northern
fringe of the MCS, but some heavy precipitation may rotate
northeast across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa in the early
morning hours. It is at this time we will have to watch for any
flooding from heavy rain over the area. Closed upper low will be
over northeast Nebraska on monday and greatest threat of heavy
rainfall will be over northeast Nebraska. Threat of severe on
Monday appears to be over western Iowa where greater instability
is expected east of upper low. By midday Tuesday, the upper low
moves out of the area.

Ridging moves into the area for Wednesday and temperatures begin
to warm up into the 90s. Hottest day is expected to be Thursday
with heat indices

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Ridge remains over the area with hot temperatures in the mid 90s
and heat indices between 100 and 105. Overnight thunderstorm
complexes moving across the ridge over the area are possible
early Thursday and Saturday morning. Another upper trough is
forecast to move in on late Saturday into Sunday, which will be
the next chance for organized convection.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Difficult TAF as TS development has been isolated and sporadic.
Presently believe all TAF sites are VFR in the near term with a
decaying SHRA near OMA. This trend seems likely to hold for the
next few hours but forecast is increasingly uncertain after that
time as TS development could occur just about any time through the
night. Most likely time period for widespread TS with accompanying
MVFR cigs is highlighted in the TAF generally after 12Z tomorrow,
followed by another period of more sporadic TS development
through the remainder of the TAF period. Additional, winds will
fluctuate quite a bit through the period, especially at OFK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barjenbruch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
538 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-251245-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
538 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the area through this
evening. Thunderstorms are then expected to become widespread
across the area through the early morning hours. A few of these
storms may become severe with hail up to the size of half dollars
and isolated damaging winds up to 60 mph being the primary
hazards. There is also some potential for heavy rain and flooding
to occur, as some locations may receive more than 2 inches of rain
through Monday morning.

Additional thunderstorms are possible through the day on Monday,
with potential for strong to severe thunderstorms primarily over
western Iowa and far eastern Nebraska.

Minor river flooding will continue along the Missouri River from
Brownville downstream to Rulo.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Sunday

A few storms could occur Tuesday into Tuesday night with a small
chance for these to become severe, primarily over southwest Iowa.

Additional thunderstorms are possible by Friday night into
Saturday.

Minor river flooding is forecast to continue along the Missouri
River from Brownville to Rulo through the period. Flooding may
develop farther north by mid week, from around Plattsmouth to
Nebraska City.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotter activation is not expected today.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
603 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2018

IAZ069-NEZ052-053-242330-
Pottawattamie IA-Sarpy NE-Douglas NE-
603 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2018

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 602 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Papillion, or 9 miles south of Omaha, moving north at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Omaha, western Council Bluffs, Bellevue, Papillion, La Vista,
Ralston, Springfield, Millard, Offutt AFB, Carter Lake, Boys Town,
Camp Maha and Chalco.

LAT...LON 4106 9595 4106 9597 4105 9598 4105 9599
      4107 9604 4106 9609 4107 9620 4131 9615
      4128 9585
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 191DEG 26KT 4114 9607

MEAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
712 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             7 N ROGERS              41.57N 96.90W
06/24/2018  E1.00 INCH       DODGE              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY SMALL HAIL STONES BUT OCCASIONALLY A
            FEW QUARTER SIZE WOULD FALL.

&&

BLB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
721 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2018

NEZ050-065-078-250045-
Seward-Butler-Saline-
721 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2018

...Funnel Clouds Being Reported...

A number of funnel clouds have been reported this evening along a
line from just south of Seward to near Cordova. These funnels are
associated with a growing line of showers and storms. While a brief
tornado touchdown is possible, it is not likely.

LAT...LON 4084 9737 4126 9707 4106 9695 4058 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 235DEG 5KT 4077 9731

MEAD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
751 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2018

NEZ015-034-250115-
Thurston NE-Burt NE-
751 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BURT AND SOUTHEASTERN
THURSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 751 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles south of Lyons, or 43 miles south of Sioux City, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lyons, Decatur and Oakland.

LAT...LON 4180 9649 4197 9655 4209 9630 4181 9616
TIME...MOT...LOC 0051Z 241DEG 21KT 4188 9647

MEAD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
804 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2018

IAZ043-NEZ015-034-250130-
Monona IA-Thurston NE-Burt NE-
804 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MONONA...NORTHEASTERN
BURT AND SOUTHEASTERN THURSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 804 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Macy, or 30 miles south of Sioux City, moving east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Onawa, Whiting, Decatur, Macy and Lewis And Clark State Park.

LAT...LON 4221 9610 4195 9604 4193 9640 4218 9644
      4222 9611
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 261DEG 12KT 4206 9634

MEAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
809 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MACY                    42.11N 96.36W
06/24/2018                   THURSTON           NE   PUBLIC

            APPROXIMATELY 6 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS
            DOWN.

&&

BLB