River Flood Warning 13, NWS Omaha, NE

532 
WGUS83 KOAX 251519
FLSOAX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
1019 AM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for...

  Elkhorn River At West Point affecting Cuming County.

.Significant rises are possible along this portion of the Elkhorn 
River, however it is not expected to reach flood stage.
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through areas where water covers the road.  The 
water depth may be too great to allow your vehicle to pass safely. 
Turn around...don't drown!

Additional information is available at:
http://www.water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=oax

&&

NEC039-251549-
/O.CAN.KOAX.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-180626T1500Z/
/WPNN1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1019 AM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Elkhorn River At West Point.
* At  9:15 AM Monday the stage was 9.6 feet...or 2.4 feet below flood
  stage.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 11.1 feet this
  evening.


&&

LAT...LON 4200 9691 4192 9669 4168 9665 4166 9668
      4198 9694                       

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1215 AM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Flash flooding is becoming the dominant hazard over the next 12
hours with recent reports of 1.50 inches in 30 minutes under the
stronger echoes. A stationary deep convergence zone should remain
located from roughly Platte county toward Wayne and ongoing
widespread heavy rain in NW Iowa through tonight...and may even
continue to focus convection into Monday as the surface low tracks
northeast along that path. Moisture transport into that zone will
persist and at times increase through tonight so expect flash
flooding to be an issue with some potential for significant flash
flooding depending exactly how/where training occurs on the most
persistent basis. Unfortunately the vast majority of this water
will flow into the Missouri River below Gavins Point dam...further
complicating the flood scenario along the Missouri in the coming
week.

All told, expect hourly rates of up to 2 inches per hour with some
areas receiving 5 inches or more by late Monday. Some model
guidance does suggest potential for localized areas greater than 6
inches within the flash flood watch area so certainly worth paying
close attention to.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Main forecast problems are possible severe convection and flooding
in the near term.

Complex mesoscale pattern over the Central Plains.  Large MCS moved
across OK/southern KS last night and stabilized the air mass
across much of Kansas. Main low level moisture axis extends from
along the Missouri River Valley from northwest Missouri
southeastern South Dakota. In addition a surface trough extends
from near Hastings to Sioux City. Another boundary extends from
Sioux City Southeast into central Iowa. Air mass is unstable with
ML CAPE between 1500 to 2000 J/Kg. Convection has developed on
both boundaries. Effective bulk shear is weak over eastern
Nebraska and southwest Iowa, hence we can expect pulse storms
across the area. Surface vorticity is sufficient along these
boundaries to be conducive for non-supercell tornadoes and will
have to be watched closely.

As upper low moves into the Central High Plains tonight with a
strong shortwave rotating around the low across eastern Nebraska
Monday morning.  Overnight Thunderstorms are expected to travel east
and become an MCS across Kansas. Nebraska will be on the northern
fringe of the MCS, but some heavy precipitation may rotate
northeast across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa in the early
morning hours. It is at this time we will have to watch for any
flooding from heavy rain over the area. Closed upper low will be
over northeast Nebraska on monday and greatest threat of heavy
rainfall will be over northeast Nebraska. Threat of severe on
Monday appears to be over western Iowa where greater instability
is expected east of upper low. By midday Tuesday, the upper low
moves out of the area.

Ridging moves into the area for Wednesday and temperatures begin
to warm up into the 90s. Hottest day is expected to be Thursday
with heat indices

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Ridge remains over the area with hot temperatures in the mid 90s
and heat indices between 100 and 105. Overnight thunderstorm
complexes moving across the ridge over the area are possible
early Thursday and Saturday morning. Another upper trough is
forecast to move in on late Saturday into Sunday, which will be
the next chance for organized convection.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

TSRA should affect KOFK the next several hours then decrease in
coverage after that. Expect that an area of TSRA will lift
northeast in a band from parts of central NE and KS and this may
affect all three sites from about 13z to 18z. Chances linger after
that but did not want to get too pessimistic.

The trend will be for conditions to decrease into the MVFR
category the next several hours with that prevailing into at least
early afternoon. TSRA could produce heavy rain.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for NEZ012-015-017-018-
     030>034-042>044-050.

IA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for IAZ043.

&&

UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Miller

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
958 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-251700-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
958 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

Widespread thunderstorms are expected tonight into Monday with
several rounds of thunderstorms expected. Areas of heavy rainfall
are likely with rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour at times,
and total rainfall amounts possibly exceeding 5 inches by late
Monday. This will lead to flash flooding, with parts of northeast
and east central Nebraska, and west central Iowa likely to see
the heaviest rain amounts.

There is also some potential for strong to severe thunderstorms on
Monday afternoon, particularly over far eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa.

Minor river flooding will continue along the Missouri River from
Brownville downstream to Rulo.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Sunday

A few storms may develop Tuesday into Tuesday night with a small
chance for these to become severe, primarily over southwest Iowa.

Additional thunderstorms are possible by Friday night into
Saturday.

Minor river flooding is forecast to continue along the Missouri
River from Brownville to Rulo through the period. Flooding may
develop farther north by mid week, from around Plattsmouth to
Nebraska City.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotter activation is not expected tonight. Please report
flooding and rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
804 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2018

IAZ043-NEZ015-034-250130-
Monona IA-Thurston NE-Burt NE-
804 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MONONA...NORTHEASTERN
BURT AND SOUTHEASTERN THURSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 804 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Macy, or 30 miles south of Sioux City, moving east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Onawa, Whiting, Decatur, Macy and Lewis And Clark State Park.

LAT...LON 4221 9610 4195 9604 4193 9640 4218 9644
      4222 9611
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 261DEG 12KT 4206 9634

MEAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
809 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MACY                    42.11N 96.36W
06/24/2018                   THURSTON           NE   PUBLIC

            APPROXIMATELY 6 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS
            DOWN.

&&

BLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
830 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE CHALCO            41.18N 96.10W
06/24/2018                   SARPY              NE   PUBLIC

            UPROOTED TREES AND BROKEN TREE LIMBS.

&&