Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Marquette, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
234 PM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 234 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb 500 mb ridge in the ern U.S.
with a trough across the central and northern plains. There is a
shortwave moving through the trough that will be affecting the upper
Great Lakes this afternoon into this evening and this moves into
Canada on Mon. The pcpn will move out this evening over most of the
cwa with drier air moving in late tonight, then quiet weather for
Mon. It will be less humid on Mon as well.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 234 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018

No changes from the previous forecast. Weather of significance in
the long term is heat and humidity into Thu, then possibly some
stronger convection around the Thu time frame.

Upper ridging and southern low level flow will continue the heat and
humidity. Tue through Thu will see highs in the 80s to around 90
with dew points in the 60s to around 70. This should result in heat
indices from the mid 80s to mid 90s.

Models continue to show a shortwave rolling across Canada, dropping
a cold front through the area generally in the Thursday time frame.
Depending on timing and numerous other details, this could result in
stronger convection, but at least scattered general convection
regardless.

Otherwise, more seasonable temperatures can be expected for Friday
through next weekend. Dry high pressure is expected to dominate this
time period, so any rain chances will be minimal at best. No major
changes were needed from the model consensus.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 121 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018
A frontal boundary moving through Upper Michigan this afternoon into
the evening will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms
into the area. Brief periods of very gusty winds and some hail may
develop with the stronger storms at SAW. However, the timing and
location of the impacts remain uncertain. MVFR cigs are expected
with the areas of rain with the potential for some IFR conditions
over the west into this evening. Drier air moving in behind the
front will bring improvement to VFR overnight.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 234 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018

The very warm, humid air sliding over the relatively cool waters of
Lake Superior, will support widespread fog through Mon morning. The
fog could become locally dense where rainfall occurs. Winds should
remain below 20 knots into the middle of the week.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ014.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Marquette MI
401 PM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018

MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-022015-
Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce-
Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-
Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft-
401 PM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018 /301 PM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper
Michigan and central Upper Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible into this evening. There is
the potential for a few storms containing locally heavy rainfall
and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a chance of thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any observed hail or wind
damage from thunderstorms to the National Weather Service in
Marquette. The public may also submit reports to the National
Weather Service via phone, on our website, or through Facebook or
Twitter.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-022015-
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
401 PM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018 /301 PM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake
Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening.

Locally dense fog is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a chance of thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LMZ221-248-250-022015-
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
401 PM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected into this evening. There is
the potential for strong to severe storms containing large hail
and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any observed hail or wind
damage from thunderstorms to the National Weather Service in
Marquette. The public may also submit reports to the National
Weather Service via phone, on our website, or through Facebook or
Twitter.

07

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