Alert archive / Wisconsin / Tornado Watches in 2018

Tornado Watch 252

July 1, 20188 counties in Michigan; 41 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jul 1, 2018, 1:04 PM EDT for 8 counties in Michigan; 41 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 1, 2018, 1:04 PM EDT (17:04 UTC)
Expired
Jul 1, 2018, 7:15 PM EDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 49 counties

Alger County, MI, Delta County, MI, Dickinson County, MI, Iron County, MI, Luce County, MI, Marquette County, MI, Menominee County, MI, Schoolcraft County, MI, Adams County, WI, Brown County, WI, Calumet County, WI, Columbia County, WI, Dane County, WI, Dodge County, WI, Door County, WI, Florence County, WI, Fond du Lac County, WI, Forest County, WI, Green County, WI, Green Lake County, WI, Iowa County, WI, Jefferson County, WI, Juneau County, WI, Kenosha County, WI, Kewaunee County, WI, Lafayette County, WI, Langlade County, WI, Manitowoc County, WI, Marathon County, WI, Marinette County, WI, Marquette County, WI, Menominee County, WI, Milwaukee County, WI, Oconto County, WI, Outagamie County, WI, Ozaukee County, WI, Portage County, WI, Racine County, WI, Rock County, WI, Sauk County, WI, Shawano County, WI, Sheboygan County, WI, Walworth County, WI, Washington County, WI, Waukesha County, WI, Waupaca County, WI, Waushara County, WI, Winnebago County, WI, Wood County, WI

The radar

The Green Bay radar (KGRB), 75 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
10%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

21 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 1, 1:10 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBMenominee, Portage, Shawano, Waupaca50 min
Jul 1, 1:18 PM EDTTornado WarningGRBShawano, Waupaca42 min
Jul 1, 1:23 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBMenominee, Oconto82 min
Jul 1, 1:43 PM EDTTornado WarningGRBMarinette, Oconto47 min
Jul 1, 2:04 PM EDTTornado WarningARXAdams11 min
Jul 1, 2:10 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXMarquette35 min
Jul 1, 2:20 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBMarinette55 min
Jul 1, 2:26 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMQTMenominee64 min
Jul 1, 2:37 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBBrown, Oconto, Outagamie53 min
Jul 1, 3:06 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBOutagamie, Waupaca, Waushara, Winnebago39 min
Jul 1, 3:40 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBBrown, Oconto, Outagamie, Shawano50 min
Jul 1, 3:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXMilwaukee, Ozaukee, Washington, Waukesha47 min
Jul 1, 4:05 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMQTMenominee25 min
Jul 1, 4:08 PM EDTTornado WarningMQTMenominee22 min
Jul 1, 4:13 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBBrown, Marinette, Oconto47 min
Jul 1, 4:23 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXSheboygan19 min
Jul 1, 4:24 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBDoor66 min
Jul 1, 4:26 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXDodge, Fond du Lac, Washington36 min
Jul 1, 4:41 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXMilwaukee, Ozaukee19 min
Jul 1, 5:13 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXKenosha, Racine17 min
Jul 1, 5:56 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMQTSchoolcraft19 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 5.1 hours before the alert went out and 76 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2018-07-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 10 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2018-07-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 86 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
10 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-259 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1272 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
86 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
152 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

167 
WWUS20 KWNS 011702
SEL2  
SPC WW 011702
MIZ000-WIZ000-LMZ000-020000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 252
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 PM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Upper Michigan
  Central and Eastern Wisconsin
  Lake Michigan

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until
  700 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to
form this afternoon over central Wisconsin, tracking eastward across
the watch area.  A few supercells with an associated tornado threat
may occur.  Otherwise, damaging winds and hail are the main threats.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 25 miles east northeast of Marquette MI
to 10 miles east southeast of Janesville WI. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 30, 9:05 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlger, Delta, Dickinson, Gogebic, Iron, Menominee85 min
Jul 1, 12:37 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDelta, Dickinson, Iron, Menominee83 min
Jul 1, 2:37 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlger, Baraga, Delta, Dickinson, Iron, Luce and 3 more53 min
Jul 1, 4:18 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDelta, Luce, Mackinac, Menominee, Schoolcraft87 min
Jul 1, 6:05 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAntrim, Benzie, Charlevoix, Cheboygan, Chippewa, Clare and 16 more2 hr
Jul 1, 6:35 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllegan, Antrim, Barry, Benzie, Charlevoix, Cheboygan and 22 more3 hr
Jul 1, 7:51 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegan, Berrien, Cass, Van Buren114 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Wisconsin, 2018Tornado Watches in Michigan, 2018Every tornado watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.