Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Marquette, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
802 PM EDT Sat Jun 30 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2018

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge over the ern U.S. and a
trough over the Rockies. We continue to be in the ring of fire
scenario on the periphery of the ridge and any shortwave that comes
through the top of the ridge will set off convection in this really
unstable airmass. This continues to create problems for forecasting
timing and coverage of pops and will continue to have difficulty
with this for this forecast. The computer models are not handling
this very well at all. This trough moves east and affects the cwa
tonight and Sunday. Confidence is low with this forecast for
coverage and timing of pops, but best guess right now is we have
some banding of pops come through the west and central this evening
and dies off as it goes east, then repeat the process again on
Sunday with a band of pcpn moving through the west in the morning
and then across the central in the afternoon. Tough forecast overall.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 428 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2018

Spent almost the whole shift working severe weather, so will keep
this short...

Sun night will see convection, some strong to possibly severe,
exiting E early in the period. After that, not seeing any
significant convection of substantial predictability at this point.
Biggest story is continued above normal temps with highs in the 80s
to near 90. Didn't make any changes to the long term blended
initialization.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 755 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2018

Challenging TAF period with ongoing convection and more expected
overnight into Sunday. Currently, the three terminals are free of
convection but KSAW will likely have the best chance of being
directly impacted by thunderstorms within the next couple of
hours, with VCTS already in the area. Overnight into early
tomorrow, additional showers and storms will impact portions of
Upper Michigan, with KIWD and KCMX being the first terminals to
get any storms that develop along and ahead of a front traversing
through. KSAW should hold off until later in the day tomorrow for
convection chances. Look for southerly to southwesterly winds
tonight to become northwesterly by midday tomorrow as the front
moves through.

&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 314 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2018

The very warm, humid air sliding over the relatively cool waters of
Lake Superior, will lead to widespread fog development through much
of the weekend. The fog could become locally dense where rainfall
occurs. Look for an uptick in winds over Lake Superior Sunday night
into Monday as a low pressure system passes through the area. Winds
stay down below 20 knots for the period.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for MIZ002-
     004>007-009>013-084-085.

  Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ014.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...lg
MARINE...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Marquette MI
354 PM EDT Sat Jun 30 2018

MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-012000-
Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce-
Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-
Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft-
354 PM EDT Sat Jun 30 2018 /254 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper
Michigan and central Upper Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected through this
evening west and across all of western and central upper Michigan
through tonight. There is the potential of scattered severe
storms containing large hail, damaging winds and locally heavy
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorms are expected again Sunday across all of western and
central upper Michigan. There is the potential of isolated severe
storms containing large hail, damaging winds and locally heavy
rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any observed hail or wind
damage from thunderstorms to the National Weather Service in
Marquette. The public may also submit reports to the National
Weather Service via phone, on our website, or through Facebook or
Twitter.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-012000-
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
354 PM EDT Sat Jun 30 2018 /254 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake
Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected with a few
strong to severe storms containing large hail and damaging winds.

Locally dense fog is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Scattered thunderstorms are expected again Sunday. There is the
potential of strong to severe storms containing large hail and
damaging winds.

Locally dense fog will be possible on portions of Lake Superior
Saturday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any observed hail or wind
damage from thunderstorms to the National Weather Service in
Marquette. The public may also submit reports to the National
Weather Service via phone, on our website, or through Facebook or
Twitter.

LMZ221-248-250-012000-
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
354 PM EDT Sat Jun 30 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected late today into tonight.
There is the potential for strong to severe storms containing
large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Scattered thunderstorms are expected again Sunday. There is the
potential of strong to severe storms containing large hail and
damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any observed hail or wind
damage from thunderstorms to the National Weather Service in
Marquette. The public may also submit reports to the National
Weather Service via phone, on our website, or through Facebook or
Twitter.

Titus

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
756 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNE NEGAUNEE          46.57N 87.58W
06/30/2018                   MARQUETTE          MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON POWER LINE. ADDITIONAL TREE
            DOWN IN THE AREA. SOURCE IS MARQUETTE COUNTY
            CENTRAL DISPATCH. TIME BASED ON RADAR.

&&

JLA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
818 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     SEICHE           1 ENE BARAGA            46.78N 88.47W
06/30/2018                   BARAGA             MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SIGNIFICANT WATER RISE OF UP TO 5 FEET IN
            KEWEENAW BAY AFFECTING THE BARAGA
            MARINA...CAMPGROUND NEAR SAND POINT...AND
            MANY OTHERS AROUND KEWEENAW BAY. DEBRIS WAS
            WASHED UP ON US 41 PROMPTING A BRIEF
            CLOSURE.

&&

MZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
826 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 PM     HAIL             DEERTON                 46.48N 87.04W
06/30/2018  E0.75 INCH       ALGER              MI   PUBLIC

&&

MZ