Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1125 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z issuance...IFR to low end MVFR CIGs/VISBYs expected until
close to sunrise, then ease for a few hours (guidance is pretty
consistent in this). Rain and few tsra return by noontime and last
well into the evening hours. All in all, looks like more rain than
not continues.

/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 949 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

UPDATE...Widespread rain over the area coupled with sunset has
cutoff any surfaced based instability over land. Over water, every
indication that we still have surface based cells, so may still
have a few strong storms overnight. Otherwise, current package on
track, with dense fog still present over Mobile Bay. No updates
planned attm, though will send out an updated package just to
refresh.

/16

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 528 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for marine areas and aviation
discussion below.

MARINE...With a band of dense fog already in evidence visually
and on some near Bay obs, have put out a dense fog advisory for
mainly the fog-prone western half of Mobile Bay.

/16

AVIATION...
00Z issuance...CIGs/VISBYs will be bouncing around between LIFR to
low end MVFR with stratus/fog streaming north from off the Gulf
over area TAF sites. Do not see a significant change as a surface
boundary sags south and stalls along the coast by the end of the
afternoon Sunday.

/16

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday/...Will continue to remain active
this period. A long wave trof over the central CONUS with a large
plume of deep Gulf moisture was spreading from the western Gulf,
northeast all the way up into the Ohio Valley. Within the deep
moisture, a strongly diffluent flow aloft was positioned from
Louisiana to the Tennessee River Valley, supporting deep layer
ascent well east of a cold front which was analyzed from the Ohio
River Valley, southwest into central Texas. The upper trof over
the Plains moves very little and in fact sharpens during the day
Sunday as upper level energy dives southeast across the Desert
southwest tonight. An active high level southwest flow remains in
place from the western Gulf to the Appalachians as a slow
southeastward moving frontal zone slips into the Lower MS River
Valley. Along and ahead of the front, an assessment of forecast
deep layer Gulf moisture (pwats 1.4 to 1.7 inches) is very high
and is found to be around the 90th percentile above the climatological
normal for Feb 11th. Considering the passage of mid level impulses
in the southwest flow aloft, approaching front and anomalously
high amounts of deep moisture favor the continuance of high chances
of rain in the near term. Some of the rains will be efficient in
producing locally heavy rainfall. A marginal risk of excessive
rains shift eastward over the region.

As far as severe weather, a slight risk of severe storms has been
expanded from southern MS eastward to along portions of the
northwest FL Gulf coast to account for storms developing along a
convergent band over the AL/northwest FL Gulf coastal waters and
moving inland. Some of these storms have the potential of
developing linear segments capable of damaging winds while more
discreet cells may produce a brief isolated tornado. Threat of
severe weather may lower into the evening as surface flow veers
more southerly. Storms moving up across interior southeast MS may
have the potential to intensify as better instability is realized.
For Sunday, a marginal risk of severe weather is in place for much
of the area.

Another hazard is the potential of fog along area bays and sounds
that expand northward across the southern half of the local area
tonight. This is supported by the latest high resolution HRRR,
NAM12 and high probabilities in the 10.15Z SREF. Fog may persist
over bays and sounds thru the day Sunday. /10

SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/...A cold front
initially located near the northwestern portion of the forecast
area slowly shifts southeastward to be located just east and south
of the land portion of the forecast area by late Monday
afternoon. A series of shortwaves embedded within the southwest
flow aloft continue to move across the area meanwhile along with
deep layer moisture remaining very high compared to seasonable
normals. With the slow movement of the front during the period,
will have categorical pops Sunday evening along and east of I-65
with good chance to likely pops further to the west, which then
gradually taper through Monday afternoon to good chance pops near
the coast and chance pops further inland. Additional rainfall
amounts during Sunday night into Monday will ranging from near
1.25 inches at the coast to less than a half inch well inland.
Expect a continuing potential for nuisance type flooding mainly
for the coastal counties through Monday morning.  The front is
expected to have stalled over or just south of the marine area by
Monday evening and remains in this position before eventually
dissipating. A series of shortwaves continue to move across the
area through Tuesday with deep layer moisture remaining elevated,
however with the front expected to remain south of the land
portion of the area, pops are in turn expected to be at best in
the slight chance to chance range for the remainder of the period.
/29

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...A broad upper ridge is
expected to dominate the Gulf through the period with a fairly
zonal flow over the forecast area while two upper trofs pass well
north of the area. There are uncertainties regarding the timing
of these upper systems which leads to uncertainty as to when an
associated surface low well to the north brings a weak trailing
cold front into the southeast states. At this time, the front is
expected to move into the Gulf coast states on Friday, then moves
to near the coast by Saturday morning but with low confidence
overall on this feature. Have gone with generally low end pops
through Friday followed by chance pops for most of the area by
Saturday. /29

MARINE...A light to moderate southerly flow continues through
Sunday night while a cold front approaches from the north. Patchy
fog is expected to persists over the bays and near shore waters
through Sunday. The front moves into the marine area on Monday and
stalls with winds becoming northeast to east. An easterly flow
prevails on Tuesday then becomes southeasterly on Wednesday. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Sunday for GMZ630-631.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
458 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

ALZ051>060-261>264-FLZ201-203-205-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-112300-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Escambia Inland-Santa Rosa Inland-Okaloosa Inland-
Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
458 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama, northwest Florida and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Periods of locally heavy rain may bring localized nuisance type
flooding of poor drainage areas and some small creeks. A few strong
to briefly severe storms is possible through this evening. Main
threat will be localized damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A marginal risk of severe storms possible over much of the local
area on Sunday. Main threat will be localized damaging wind gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado. Locally heavy rainfall will also again
be possible on Sunday over the entire area. Minor flooding of area
rivers and isolated flash flooding will be possible generally along
and southeast of Interstate 65.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ALZ265-266-FLZ202-204-206-112300-
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Coastal-
458 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Alabama and
northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Periods of locally heavy rain may bring localized nuisance type
flooding of poor drainage areas and some small creeks. A few strong
to briefly severe storms is possible through this evening. Main
threat will be localized damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado.

Patchy fog develops tonight with visibility lowering to between 1
and 3 miles. Fog could become locally dense in some areas with
restrictions to visibility lowering to a half mile or less.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A marginal risk of severe storms possible over much of the local
area on Sunday. Main threat will be localized damaging wind gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado. Locally heavy rainfall will also again
be possible on Sunday over the entire area. Minor flooding of area
rivers and isolated flash flooding possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-112300-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL
out 20 NM-Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
458 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Winds, waves and seas locally higher in and near the passage of
marine storms. Lightning activity enhanced in storms. Rain and areas
of fog, occasionally lowering visibility below 1 mile, possible
overnight over bays, sounds and near shore waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Winds, waves and seas locally higher in and near the passage of
marine storms. Lightning activity enhanced in storms. Rain and fog,
occasionally lowering visibility below 1 mile, possible Sunday into
Monday.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1159 PM CST SAT FEB 10 2018

FLZ203>206-110645-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Okaloosa Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Coastal FL-
Santa Rosa Inland FL-
1159 PM CST SAT FEB 10 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHWESTERN OKALOOSA AND SOUTHEASTERN SANTA ROSA COUNTIES UNTIL 1245
AM CST...

At 1157 PM CST, the strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles southwest
of Navarre Beach, or 14 miles east of Gulf Breeze, moving northeast
at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Radar
also indicates rotation with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Navarre and Navarre Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3028 8705 3036 8701 3037 8692 3037 8700
      3067 8682 3057 8657 3028 8682 3025 8699
TIME...MOT...LOC 0557Z 211DEG 33KT 3030 8692