Alert archive / Alabama / Flood Watches in 2018
Flood Watch 1, NWS Mobile, AL
NWS Mobile, AL issued this flood watch at Feb 11, 2018, 4:15 AM CST for Escambia County, Okaloosa County, Santa Rosa County, Florida; 8 counties in Alabama. It was in force for 23 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 11, 2018, 4:15 AM CST (10:15 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 12, 2018, 3:42 AM CST
- In force
- 23 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Mobile, AL
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Baldwin County, AL, Butler County, AL, Conecuh County, AL, Covington County, AL, Crenshaw County, AL, Escambia County, AL, Monroe County, AL, Wilcox County, AL, Escambia County, FL, Okaloosa County, FL, Santa Rosa County, FL
The radar
The Eglin Afb radar (KEVX), 126 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Birmingham, AL (KBMX), launched 00:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 218 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 85 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -36 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 683 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 50 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 288 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 296 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.3
The text
As transmitted.
844 WGUS64 KMOB 111015 FFAMOB URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Mobile AL 415 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 ...FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS EVENING... .Periods of heavy rainfall is expected today into this evening. Heaviest rainfall is expected generally along and east of a Wilcox county to Baldwin county line. In general, 1.5 to near 3 inches of rain is expected in these areas through this evening, but localized areas could see totals up to around 4 inches. This would be enough to cause some flooding issues, mainly in form of flooding of low lying and poor drainage and as well as urban areas. Smaller creeks and streams will also be susceptible to flooding. Isolated flash flooding is possible. ALZ054>060-262-264-266-FLZ201>206-111815- /O.NEW.KMOB.FA.A.0001.180211T1015Z-180212T0300Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-Escambia-Covington- Baldwin Inland-Baldwin Central-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland- Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal- Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal- Including the cities of Camden, Pine Hill, Homewood, Monroeville, Evergreen, Greenville, Brantley, Luverne, Atmore, Brewton, Flomaton, Andalusia, Opp, Stockton, Bay Minette, Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Spanish Fort, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, Ensley, Fort Pickens, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, Jay, Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, Eglin AFB, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Seminole, Valparaiso, and Wright 415 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a * Flood Watch for portions of Alabama and northwest Florida, including the following areas, in Alabama, Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, Baldwin Inland, Butler, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw, Escambia, Monroe, and Wilcox. In northwest Florida, Escambia Coastal, Escambia Inland, Okaloosa Coastal, Okaloosa Inland, Santa Rosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Inland. * Through this evening * Periods of heavy rainfall expected today into this evening, up to 1.5 to 3 inches of rainfall likely with some locations up to around 4 inches possible. * This would be enough to cause some flooding issues, mainly in form of flooding of low lying and poor drainage and as well as urban areas. Smaller creeks and streams will also be susceptible to flooding. Isolated flash flooding is possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$
5 follow-up statements
828 WGUS64 KMOB 111509 FFAMOB Flood Watch National Weather Service Mobile AL 909 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 ...FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS EVENING... .Periods of heavy rainfall is expected today into this evening. Heaviest rainfall is expected generally along and east of a Wilcox County to Baldwin County Alabama line. Ground conditions have become saturated in the watch area from recent heavy rainfall. Additional rains today into tonight brings potential flooding issues, mainly in form of flooding of low lying areas subject to poor drainage as well as urban areas. Smaller creeks and streams will also be susceptible to flooding. Isolated flash flooding is possible. ALZ054>060-262-264-266-FLZ201>206-112300- /O.CON.KMOB.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180212T0300Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-Escambia-Covington- Baldwin Inland-Baldwin Central-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland- Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal- Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal- Including the cities of Camden, Pine Hill, Homewood, Monroeville, Evergreen, Greenville, Brantley, Luverne, Atmore, Brewton, Flomaton, Andalusia, Opp, Stockton, Bay Minette, Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Spanish Fort, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, Ensley, Fort Pickens, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, Jay, Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, Eglin AFB, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Seminole, Valparaiso, and Wright 909 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... The Flood Watch continues for * Portions of Alabama and northwest Florida, including the following areas, in Alabama, Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, Baldwin Inland, Butler, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw, Escambia, Monroe, and Wilcox. In northwest Florida, Escambia Coastal, Escambia Inland, Okaloosa Coastal, Okaloosa Inland, Santa Rosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Inland. * Through this evening * Along the coastal counties of the flood watch is where the heaviest rains have occurred over the past 24 hours. Upwards of 2 to 4 inches was observed over Baldwin County Alabama eastward to Santa Rosa County Florida. Over southern portions of Okaloosa County in Florida, rainfall has been substantially higher with several CoCoRaHS rainfall gauges reporting between 7 and 8 inches of rain near Niceville, Florida. * Periods of heavy rainfall likely to continue today into this evening, with an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall possible. Some locations could see amounts up to around 4 inches possible. * These rains falling on already saturated soils would be enough to cause some potential flooding issues, mainly in form of flooding of low lying areas subject to poor drainage as well as urban areas. Smaller creeks and streams will also be susceptible to flooding. Isolated flash flooding is possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$
116 WGUS64 KMOB 112335 FFAMOB Flood Watch National Weather Service Mobile AL 535 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 ...FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS EVENING... .Periods of heavy rainfall are expected into this evening. Heaviest rainfall is expected generally along and east of a Wilcox County to Baldwin County Alabama line. Ground conditions have become saturated in the watch area from recent heavy rainfall. Additional rains today into tonight brings potential flooding issues, mainly in form of flooding of low lying areas subject to poor drainage as well as urban areas. Smaller creeks and streams will also be susceptible to flooding. Isolated flash flooding is possible. ALZ054>060-262-264-266-FLZ201>206-120300- /O.CON.KMOB.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180212T0300Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-Escambia-Covington- Baldwin Inland-Baldwin Central-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland- Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal- Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal- Including the cities of Camden, Pine Hill, Homewood, Monroeville, Evergreen, Greenville, Brantley, Luverne, Atmore, Brewton, Flomaton, Andalusia, Opp, Stockton, Bay Minette, Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Spanish Fort, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, Ensley, Fort Pickens, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, Jay, Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, Eglin AFB, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Seminole, Valparaiso, and Wright 535 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING... The Flood Watch continues for * Portions of Alabama and northwest Florida, including the following areas, in Alabama, Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, Baldwin Inland, Butler, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw, Escambia, Monroe, and Wilcox. In northwest Florida, Escambia Coastal, Escambia Inland, Okaloosa Coastal, Okaloosa Inland, Santa Rosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Inland. * Until 9 PM CST this evening * Along the coastal counties of the flood watch is where the heaviest rains have occurred over the past 24 hours. Upwards of 2 to 4 inches was observed over Baldwin County Alabama eastward to Santa Rosa County Florida. Over southern portions of Okaloosa County in Florida, rainfall has been substantially higher with several CoCoRaHS rainfall gauges reporting between 7 and 8 inches of rain near Niceville, Florida. * Periods of heavy rainfall likely to continue today into this evening, with an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall possible. Some locations could see amounts up to around 4 inches possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$
716 WGUS64 KMOB 120209 FFAMOB URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Mobile AL 809 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 ...FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING... .Periods of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall are expected to continue into the remainder of this evening across the western Florida panhandle and portions of southwest and south central Alabama. Ground conditions have become saturated in the watch area from recent heavy rainfall, and additional rain this evening will bring a continued potential for flooding, mainly in urban and low lying areas subject to poor drainage. Smaller creeks and streams will also be susceptible to flooding. Isolated flash flooding is possible. ALZ054-055-057-058-120315- /O.CAN.KMOB.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180212T0300Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Wilcox-Monroe-Butler-Crenshaw- Including the cities of Camden, Pine Hill, Homewood, Monroeville, Greenville, Brantley, and Luverne 809 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... The Flood Watch for a portion of south central Alabama has been cancelled. Rainfall over interior south central Alabama will be light to occasionally moderate in nature this evening, and the potential for flooding has decreased. $$ ALZ056-059-060-262-264-266-FLZ201>206-120600- /O.EXT.KMOB.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180212T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Conecuh-Escambia-Covington-Baldwin Inland-Baldwin Central- Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-Escambia Coastal- Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Inland- Okaloosa Coastal- Including the cities of Evergreen, Atmore, Brewton, Flomaton, Andalusia, Opp, Stockton, Bay Minette, Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Spanish Fort, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, Ensley, Fort Pickens, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, Jay, Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, Eglin AFB, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Seminole, Valparaiso, and Wright 809 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT... The Flood Watch is now in effect for * Portions of Alabama and northwest Florida, including the following areas, in Alabama, Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, Baldwin Inland, Conecuh, Covington, and Escambia. In northwest Florida, Escambia Coastal, Escambia Inland, Okaloosa Coastal, Okaloosa Inland, Santa Rosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Inland. * Until midnight CST tonight * The Flood Watch remains in effect where the heaviest rains have occurred over the past 24 hours. Widespread 3 to 5 inches of rain has fallen over the watch area, with a few totals of 6 to 9 inches observed over portions of the western Florida panhandle. * Periods of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall will continue into this evening, with an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall possible, with isolated higher totals. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$
261 WGUS64 KMOB 120430 FFAMOB URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Mobile AL 1030 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 ...FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... .Periods of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall are expected to continue through late tonight across the western Florida panhandle and portions of southwest and south central Alabama. Ground conditions have become saturated in the watch area from recent heavy rainfall, and additional rain this evening will bring a continued potential for flooding, mainly in urban and low lying areas subject to poor drainage. Smaller creeks and streams will also be susceptible to flooding. Isolated flash flooding is possible. ALZ056-059-060-262-264-266-FLZ201>206-121000- /O.EXT.KMOB.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180212T1000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Conecuh-Escambia-Covington-Baldwin Inland-Baldwin Central- Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-Escambia Coastal- Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Inland- Okaloosa Coastal- Including the cities of Evergreen, Atmore, Brewton, Flomaton, Andalusia, Opp, Stockton, Bay Minette, Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Spanish Fort, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, Ensley, Fort Pickens, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, Jay, Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, Eglin AFB, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Seminole, Valparaiso, and Wright 1030 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY... The Flood Watch is now in effect for * Portions of Alabama and northwest Florida, including the following areas, in Alabama, Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, Baldwin Inland, Conecuh, Covington, and Escambia. In northwest Florida, Escambia Coastal, Escambia Inland, Okaloosa Coastal, Okaloosa Inland, Santa Rosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Inland. * Until 4 AM CST Monday * The Flood Watch remains in effect where the heaviest rains have occurred over the past 24 hours. Widespread 3 to 5 inches of rain has fallen over the watch area, with a few totals of 6 to 9 inches observed over portions of the western Florida panhandle. * Periods of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall will continue through tonight, with an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall possible, with isolated higher totals. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$
196 WGUS64 KMOB 120942 FFAMOB Flood Watch National Weather Service Mobile AL 342 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... .Heaviest rains have moved off to the east of the area, thus the flood threat due to heavy rainfall has ended. ALZ056-059-060-262-264-266-FLZ201>206-121045- /O.CAN.KMOB.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180212T1000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Conecuh-Escambia-Covington-Baldwin Inland-Baldwin Central- Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-Escambia Coastal- Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Inland- Okaloosa Coastal- Including the cities of Evergreen, Atmore, Brewton, Flomaton, Andalusia, Opp, Stockton, Bay Minette, Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Spanish Fort, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, Ensley, Fort Pickens, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, Jay, Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, Eglin AFB, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Seminole, Valparaiso, and Wright 342 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... The Flood Watch for portions of Alabama and northwest Florida has been cancelled. The threat of flooding due to heavy rain has ended as the more widespread heavy precipitation has moved off to the east of the area. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Mobile, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Feb 10, 11:25 PM CST, 4 hours 50 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 10, 11:25 PM CST, 4 hours 50 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 1125 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... 06Z issuance...IFR to low end MVFR CIGs/VISBYs expected until close to sunrise, then ease for a few hours (guidance is pretty consistent in this). Rain and few tsra return by noontime and last well into the evening hours. All in all, looks like more rain than not continues. /16 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 949 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/ DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below. UPDATE...Widespread rain over the area coupled with sunset has cutoff any surfaced based instability over land. Over water, every indication that we still have surface based cells, so may still have a few strong storms overnight. Otherwise, current package on track, with dense fog still present over Mobile Bay. No updates planned attm, though will send out an updated package just to refresh. /16 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 528 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/ DISCUSSION...See updated information for marine areas and aviation discussion below. MARINE...With a band of dense fog already in evidence visually and on some near Bay obs, have put out a dense fog advisory for mainly the fog-prone western half of Mobile Bay. /16 AVIATION... 00Z issuance...CIGs/VISBYs will be bouncing around between LIFR to low end MVFR with stratus/fog streaming north from off the Gulf over area TAF sites. Do not see a significant change as a surface boundary sags south and stalls along the coast by the end of the afternoon Sunday. /16 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/ NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday/...Will continue to remain active this period. A long wave trof over the central CONUS with a large plume of deep Gulf moisture was spreading from the western Gulf, northeast all the way up into the Ohio Valley. Within the deep moisture, a strongly diffluent flow aloft was positioned from Louisiana to the Tennessee River Valley, supporting deep layer ascent well east of a cold front which was analyzed from the Ohio River Valley, southwest into central Texas. The upper trof over the Plains moves very little and in fact sharpens during the day Sunday as upper level energy dives southeast across the Desert southwest tonight. An active high level southwest flow remains in place from the western Gulf to the Appalachians as a slow southeastward moving frontal zone slips into the Lower MS River Valley. Along and ahead of the front, an assessment of forecast deep layer Gulf moisture (pwats 1.4 to 1.7 inches) is very high and is found to be around the 90th percentile above the climatological normal for Feb 11th. Considering the passage of mid level impulses in the southwest flow aloft, approaching front and anomalously high amounts of deep moisture favor the continuance of high chances of rain in the near term. Some of the rains will be efficient in producing locally heavy rainfall. A marginal risk of excessive rains shift eastward over the region. As far as severe weather, a slight risk of severe storms has been expanded from southern MS eastward to along portions of the northwest FL Gulf coast to account for storms developing along a convergent band over the AL/northwest FL Gulf coastal waters and moving inland. Some of these storms have the potential of developing linear segments capable of damaging winds while more discreet cells may produce a brief isolated tornado. Threat of severe weather may lower into the evening as surface flow veers more southerly. Storms moving up across interior southeast MS may have the potential to intensify as better instability is realized. For Sunday, a marginal risk of severe weather is in place for much of the area. Another hazard is the potential of fog along area bays and sounds that expand northward across the southern half of the local area tonight. This is supported by the latest high resolution HRRR, NAM12 and high probabilities in the 10.15Z SREF. Fog may persist over bays and sounds thru the day Sunday. /10 SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/...A cold front initially located near the northwestern portion of the forecast area slowly shifts southeastward to be located just east and south of the land portion of the forecast area by late Monday afternoon. A series of shortwaves embedded within the southwest flow aloft continue to move across the area meanwhile along with deep layer moisture remaining very high compared to seasonable normals. With the slow movement of the front during the period, will have categorical pops Sunday evening along and east of I-65 with good chance to likely pops further to the west, which then gradually taper through Monday afternoon to good chance pops near the coast and chance pops further inland. Additional rainfall amounts during Sunday night into Monday will ranging from near 1.25 inches at the coast to less than a half inch well inland. Expect a continuing potential for nuisance type flooding mainly for the coastal counties through Monday morning. The front is expected to have stalled over or just south of the marine area by Monday evening and remains in this position before eventually dissipating. A series of shortwaves continue to move across the area through Tuesday with deep layer moisture remaining elevated, however with the front expected to remain south of the land portion of the area, pops are in turn expected to be at best in the slight chance to chance range for the remainder of the period. /29 LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...A broad upper ridge is expected to dominate the Gulf through the period with a fairly zonal flow over the forecast area while two upper trofs pass well north of the area. There are uncertainties regarding the timing of these upper systems which leads to uncertainty as to when an associated surface low well to the north brings a weak trailing cold front into the southeast states. At this time, the front is expected to move into the Gulf coast states on Friday, then moves to near the coast by Saturday morning but with low confidence overall on this feature. Have gone with generally low end pops through Friday followed by chance pops for most of the area by Saturday. /29 MARINE...A light to moderate southerly flow continues through Sunday night while a cold front approaches from the north. Patchy fog is expected to persists over the bays and near shore waters through Sunday. The front moves into the marine area on Monday and stalls with winds becoming northeast to east. An easterly flow prevails on Tuesday then becomes southeasterly on Wednesday. /29 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Sunday for GMZ630-631. && This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 10, 4:58 PM CST, 11 hours 17 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 458 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 ALZ051>060-261>264-FLZ201-203-205-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-112300- Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw- Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central- Baldwin Central-Escambia Inland-Santa Rosa Inland-Okaloosa Inland- Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George- 458 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama, southwest Alabama, northwest Florida and southeast Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Periods of locally heavy rain may bring localized nuisance type flooding of poor drainage areas and some small creeks. A few strong to briefly severe storms is possible through this evening. Main threat will be localized damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. A marginal risk of severe storms possible over much of the local area on Sunday. Main threat will be localized damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. Locally heavy rainfall will also again be possible on Sunday over the entire area. Minor flooding of area rivers and isolated flash flooding will be possible generally along and southeast of Interstate 65. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. ALZ265-266-FLZ202-204-206-112300- Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal- Okaloosa Coastal- 458 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Alabama and northwest Florida. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Periods of locally heavy rain may bring localized nuisance type flooding of poor drainage areas and some small creeks. A few strong to briefly severe storms is possible through this evening. Main threat will be localized damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. Patchy fog develops tonight with visibility lowering to between 1 and 3 miles. Fog could become locally dense in some areas with restrictions to visibility lowering to a half mile or less. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. A marginal risk of severe storms possible over much of the local area on Sunday. Main threat will be localized damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. Locally heavy rainfall will also again be possible on Sunday over the entire area. Minor flooding of area rivers and isolated flash flooding possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-112300- Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound- Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay- Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL out 20 NM-Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from 20 to 60 NM- 458 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama and northwest Florida. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Winds, waves and seas locally higher in and near the passage of marine storms. Lightning activity enhanced in storms. Rain and areas of fog, occasionally lowering visibility below 1 mile, possible overnight over bays, sounds and near shore waters. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Winds, waves and seas locally higher in and near the passage of marine storms. Lightning activity enhanced in storms. Rain and fog, occasionally lowering visibility below 1 mile, possible Sunday into Monday.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Feb 10, 11:59 PM CST, 4 hours 16 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1159 PM CST SAT FEB 10 2018
FLZ203>206-110645-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Okaloosa Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Coastal FL-
Santa Rosa Inland FL-
1159 PM CST SAT FEB 10 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHWESTERN OKALOOSA AND SOUTHEASTERN SANTA ROSA COUNTIES UNTIL 1245
AM CST...
At 1157 PM CST, the strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles southwest
of Navarre Beach, or 14 miles east of Gulf Breeze, moving northeast
at 40 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Radar
also indicates rotation with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Navarre and Navarre Beach.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3028 8705 3036 8701 3037 8692 3037 8700
3067 8682 3057 8657 3028 8682 3025 8699
TIME...MOT...LOC 0557Z 211DEG 33KT 3030 8692Special weather statement, Feb 11, 12:48 AM CST, 3 hours 27 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1248 AM CST SUN FEB 11 2018
FLZ205-206-110730-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Okaloosa Coastal FL-
1248 AM CST SUN FEB 11 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHEASTERN OKALOOSA COUNTY UNTIL 130 AM CST...
At 1248 AM CST, the strong thunderstorm was located over Cinco Bayou,
or over Fort Walton Beach, moving northeast at 35 mph.
Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Wright, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Destin, Eglin AFB, Valparaiso,
Mary Esther, Ocean City, Lake Lorraine, Shalimar, Cinco Bayou and
Eglin Air Force Base.
LAT...LON 3038 8642 3036 8682 3080 8639 3046 8639
3048 8632
TIME...MOT...LOC 0648Z 219DEG 29KT 3039 8659Special weather statement, Feb 11, 2:46 AM CST, 1 hour 29 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Mobile AL 246 AM CST SUN FEB 11 2018 ALZ052-261-263-MSZ076-079-110930- Washington AL-Mobile Central AL-Mobile Inland AL-Greene MS-George MS- 246 AM CST SUN FEB 11 2018 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... NORTHWESTERN MOBILE...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...EASTERN GEORGE AND SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM CST... At 245 AM CST, the strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles north of Wade, or 14 miles south of Lucedale, moving northeast at 35 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Citronelle, Chunchula, Gulfcrest and Wilmer. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. && LAT...LON 3118 8833 3100 8810 3074 8842 3073 8872 TIME...MOT...LOC 0845Z 221DEG 32KT 3072 8860
The office that day
Everything else NWS Mobile, AL issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 11:47 PM CST | Areal Flood Advisory | MOB | Escambia, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa | 3 hr |
| Feb 10, 11:59 PM CST | Special Weather Statement | MOB | Okaloosa | 46 min |
| Feb 11, 12:48 AM CST | Special Weather Statement | MOB | Okaloosa | 42 min |
| Feb 11, 10:43 AM CST | River Flood Warning | MOB | Okaloosa | 4 days |
| Feb 11, 1:04 PM CST | River Flood Warning | MOB | Okaloosa, Santa Rosa | 59 hr |
| Feb 10, 6:26 PM CST | Special Weather Statement | MOB | Clarke | 49 min |
| Feb 10, 6:40 PM CST | Special Marine Warning | MOB | 65 min | |
| Feb 10, 8:12 PM CST | Special Marine Warning | MOB | 48 min | |
| Feb 10, 8:56 PM CST | Special Marine Warning | MOB | 49 min | |
| Feb 10, 9:05 PM CST | Special Marine Warning | MOB | 55 min | |
| Feb 10, 10:00 PM CST | Special Marine Warning | MOB | 60 min | |
| Feb 10, 11:31 PM CST | Special Marine Warning | MOB | 59 min | |
| Feb 11, 12:20 AM CST | Special Marine Warning | MOB | 55 min | |
| Feb 11, 6:18 AM CST | Special Marine Warning | MOB | 87 min | |
| Feb 11, 8:25 AM CST | Special Marine Warning | MOB | 65 min | |
| Feb 11, 8:57 AM CST | Special Marine Warning | MOB | 63 min | |
| Feb 11, 9:07 AM CST | Special Marine Warning | MOB | 53 min | |
| Feb 11, 9:18 AM CST | Special Marine Warning | MOB | 57 min | |
| Feb 11, 10:10 AM CST | Special Marine Warning | MOB | 65 min | |
| Feb 11, 11:08 AM CST | Special Marine Warning | MOB | 67 min | |
| Feb 11, 12:19 PM CST | Special Marine Warning | MOB | 56 min | |
| Feb 11, 1:41 PM CST | Special Marine Warning | MOB | 64 min |
Nearby
Flood Watches in Alabama, 2018Flood Watches in Florida, 2018Every flood watch in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.