Alert archive / Alabama / Flood Watches in 2018

Flood Watch 1, NWS Mobile, AL

February 11, 2018Escambia County, Okaloosa County, Santa Rosa County, Florida; 8 counties in Alabama

NWS Mobile, AL issued this flood watch at Feb 11, 2018, 4:15 AM CST for Escambia County, Okaloosa County, Santa Rosa County, Florida; 8 counties in Alabama. It was in force for 23 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 11, 2018, 4:15 AM CST (10:15 UTC)
Expired
Feb 12, 2018, 3:42 AM CST
In force
23 hr
Issued by
NWS Mobile, AL
Flood severity
None

Counties Baldwin County, AL, Butler County, AL, Conecuh County, AL, Covington County, AL, Crenshaw County, AL, Escambia County, AL, Monroe County, AL, Wilcox County, AL, Escambia County, FL, Okaloosa County, FL, Santa Rosa County, FL

The radar

The Eglin Afb radar (KEVX), 126 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Birmingham, AL (KBMX), launched 00:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 218 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Birmingham, AL at 00:00Z on 2018-02-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 85 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Birmingham, AL at 00:00Z on 2018-02-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 288 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
85 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-36 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
683 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
288 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
296 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

844 
WGUS64 KMOB 111015
FFAMOB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mobile AL
415 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

...FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH 
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

.Periods of heavy rainfall is expected today into this evening.
Heaviest rainfall is expected generally along and east of a Wilcox
county to Baldwin county line. In general, 1.5 to near 3 inches 
of rain is expected in these areas through this evening, but 
localized areas could see totals up to around 4 inches. This 
would be enough to cause some flooding issues, mainly in form of 
flooding of low lying and poor drainage and as well as urban 
areas. Smaller creeks and streams will also be susceptible to 
flooding. Isolated flash flooding is possible. 

ALZ054>060-262-264-266-FLZ201>206-111815-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FA.A.0001.180211T1015Z-180212T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-Escambia-Covington-
Baldwin Inland-Baldwin Central-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-
Including the cities of Camden, Pine Hill, Homewood, Monroeville,
Evergreen, Greenville, Brantley, Luverne, Atmore, Brewton, 
Flomaton, Andalusia, Opp, Stockton, Bay Minette, Daphne, 
Fairhope, Foley, Spanish Fort, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, 
Orange Beach, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, Ensley, 
Fort Pickens, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, Jay, 
Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, 
Eglin AFB, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Seminole, Valparaiso, 
and Wright
415 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a

* Flood Watch for portions of Alabama and northwest Florida, 
  including the following areas, in Alabama, Baldwin Central, 
  Baldwin Coastal, Baldwin Inland, Butler, Conecuh, Covington, 
  Crenshaw, Escambia, Monroe, and Wilcox. In northwest Florida, 
  Escambia Coastal, Escambia Inland, Okaloosa Coastal, Okaloosa 
  Inland, Santa Rosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Inland. 

* Through this evening

* Periods of heavy rainfall expected today into this evening, up
  to 1.5 to 3 inches of rainfall likely with some locations up to
  around 4 inches possible. 
  
* This would be enough to cause some flooding issues, mainly in 
  form of flooding of low lying and poor drainage and as well as 
  urban areas. Smaller creeks and streams will also be susceptible
  to flooding. Isolated flash flooding is possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$
5 follow-up statements
828 
WGUS64 KMOB 111509
FFAMOB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mobile AL
909 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

...FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

.Periods of heavy rainfall is expected today into this evening.
Heaviest rainfall is expected generally along and east of a
Wilcox County to Baldwin County Alabama line. Ground conditions 
have become saturated in the watch area from recent heavy 
rainfall. Additional rains today into tonight brings potential 
flooding issues, mainly in form of flooding of low lying areas 
subject to poor drainage as well as urban areas. Smaller creeks 
and streams will also be susceptible to flooding. Isolated flash 
flooding is possible. 

ALZ054>060-262-264-266-FLZ201>206-112300-
/O.CON.KMOB.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180212T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-Escambia-Covington-
Baldwin Inland-Baldwin Central-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-
Including the cities of Camden, Pine Hill, Homewood, Monroeville,
Evergreen, Greenville, Brantley, Luverne, Atmore, Brewton, 
Flomaton, Andalusia, Opp, Stockton, Bay Minette, Daphne, 
Fairhope, Foley, Spanish Fort, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, 
Orange Beach, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, Ensley, 
Fort Pickens, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, Jay, 
Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, 
Eglin AFB, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Seminole, Valparaiso, 
and Wright
909 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Alabama and northwest Florida, including the 
  following areas, in Alabama, Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, 
  Baldwin Inland, Butler, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw, 
  Escambia, Monroe, and Wilcox. In northwest Florida, Escambia 
  Coastal, Escambia Inland, Okaloosa Coastal, Okaloosa Inland, 
  Santa Rosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Inland. 

* Through this evening

* Along the coastal counties of the flood watch is where the
  heaviest rains have occurred over the past 24 hours. Upwards of
  2 to 4 inches was observed over Baldwin County Alabama eastward
  to Santa Rosa County Florida. Over southern portions of Okaloosa
  County in Florida, rainfall has been substantially higher with
  several CoCoRaHS rainfall gauges reporting between 7 and 8
  inches of rain near Niceville, Florida.  
 
* Periods of heavy rainfall likely to continue today into this
  evening, with an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall possible.
  Some locations could see amounts up to around 4 inches 
  possible.
 
* These rains falling on already saturated soils would be enough
  to cause some potential flooding issues, mainly in form of
  flooding of low lying areas subject to poor drainage as well as
  urban areas. Smaller creeks and streams will also be 
  susceptible to flooding. Isolated flash flooding is possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$
116 
WGUS64 KMOB 112335
FFAMOB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mobile AL
535 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

...FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

.Periods of heavy rainfall are expected into this evening. 
Heaviest rainfall is expected generally along and east of a Wilcox
County to Baldwin County Alabama line. Ground conditions have 
become saturated in the watch area from recent heavy rainfall. 
Additional rains today into tonight brings potential flooding 
issues, mainly in form of flooding of low lying areas subject to 
poor drainage as well as urban areas. Smaller creeks and streams 
will also be susceptible to flooding. Isolated flash flooding is 
possible.

ALZ054>060-262-264-266-FLZ201>206-120300-
/O.CON.KMOB.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180212T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-Escambia-Covington-
Baldwin Inland-Baldwin Central-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-
Including the cities of Camden, Pine Hill, Homewood, Monroeville,
Evergreen, Greenville, Brantley, Luverne, Atmore, Brewton, 
Flomaton, Andalusia, Opp, Stockton, Bay Minette, Daphne, 
Fairhope, Foley, Spanish Fort, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, 
Orange Beach, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, Ensley, 
Fort Pickens, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, Jay, 
Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, 
Eglin AFB, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Seminole, Valparaiso, 
and Wright
535 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Alabama and northwest Florida, including the 
  following areas, in Alabama, Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, 
  Baldwin Inland, Butler, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw, 
  Escambia, Monroe, and Wilcox. In northwest Florida, Escambia 
  Coastal, Escambia Inland, Okaloosa Coastal, Okaloosa Inland, 
  Santa Rosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Inland. 

* Until 9 PM CST this evening

* Along the coastal counties of the flood watch is where the 
  heaviest rains have occurred over the past 24 hours. Upwards 
  of 2 to 4 inches was observed over Baldwin County Alabama 
  eastward to Santa Rosa County Florida. Over southern portions 
  of Okaloosa County in Florida, rainfall has been substantially 
  higher with several CoCoRaHS rainfall gauges reporting between 
  7 and 8 inches of rain near Niceville, Florida. 

* Periods of heavy rainfall likely to continue today into this 
  evening, with an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall 
  possible. Some locations could see amounts up to around 4 
  inches possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$
716 
WGUS64 KMOB 120209
FFAMOB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mobile AL
809 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

...FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND 
SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH 
LATE THIS EVENING...

.Periods of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall are expected 
to continue into the remainder of this evening across the western 
Florida panhandle and portions of southwest and south central 
Alabama. Ground conditions have become saturated in the watch area
from recent heavy rainfall, and additional rain this evening will
bring a continued potential for flooding, mainly in urban and low
lying areas subject to poor drainage. Smaller creeks and streams 
will also be susceptible to flooding. Isolated flash flooding is 
possible.

ALZ054-055-057-058-120315-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180212T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wilcox-Monroe-Butler-Crenshaw-
Including the cities of Camden, Pine Hill, Homewood, Monroeville,
Greenville, Brantley, and Luverne
809 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch for a portion of south central Alabama has been
cancelled. 

Rainfall over interior south central Alabama will be light to
occasionally moderate in nature this evening, and the potential
for flooding has decreased. 

$$

ALZ056-059-060-262-264-266-FLZ201>206-120600-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180212T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Conecuh-Escambia-Covington-Baldwin Inland-Baldwin Central-
Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-Escambia Coastal-
Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Inland-
Okaloosa Coastal-
Including the cities of Evergreen, Atmore, Brewton, Flomaton, 
Andalusia, Opp, Stockton, Bay Minette, Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, 
Spanish Fort, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Century, 
Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, Ensley, Fort Pickens, Pensacola, 
Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, Jay, Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, 
Navarre, Crestview, Destin, Eglin AFB, Fort Walton Beach, 
Niceville, Seminole, Valparaiso, and Wright
809 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

The Flood Watch is now in effect for

* Portions of Alabama and northwest Florida, including the 
  following areas, in Alabama, Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, 
  Baldwin Inland, Conecuh, Covington, and Escambia. In northwest 
  Florida, Escambia Coastal, Escambia Inland, Okaloosa Coastal, 
  Okaloosa Inland, Santa Rosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Inland. 

* Until midnight CST tonight

* The Flood Watch remains in effect where the heaviest rains have
  occurred over the past 24 hours. Widespread 3 to 5 inches of
  rain has fallen over the watch area, with a few totals of 6 to 9
  inches observed over portions of the western Florida panhandle.
 
* Periods of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall will continue
  into this evening, with an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
  possible, with isolated higher totals.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$
261 
WGUS64 KMOB 120430
FFAMOB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1030 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

...FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...

.Periods of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall are expected
to continue through late tonight across the western Florida 
panhandle and portions of southwest and south central Alabama. 
Ground conditions have become saturated in the watch area from 
recent heavy rainfall, and additional rain this evening will bring
a continued potential for flooding, mainly in urban and low lying
areas subject to poor drainage. Smaller creeks and streams will 
also be susceptible to flooding. Isolated flash flooding is 
possible.

ALZ056-059-060-262-264-266-FLZ201>206-121000-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180212T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Conecuh-Escambia-Covington-Baldwin Inland-Baldwin Central-
Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-Escambia Coastal-
Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Inland-
Okaloosa Coastal-
Including the cities of Evergreen, Atmore, Brewton, Flomaton, 
Andalusia, Opp, Stockton, Bay Minette, Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, 
Spanish Fort, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Century, 
Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, Ensley, Fort Pickens, Pensacola, 
Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, Jay, Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, 
Navarre, Crestview, Destin, Eglin AFB, Fort Walton Beach, 
Niceville, Seminole, Valparaiso, and Wright
1030 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY...

The Flood Watch is now in effect for

* Portions of Alabama and northwest Florida, including the 
  following areas, in Alabama, Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, 
  Baldwin Inland, Conecuh, Covington, and Escambia. In northwest 
  Florida, Escambia Coastal, Escambia Inland, Okaloosa Coastal, 
  Okaloosa Inland, Santa Rosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Inland. 

* Until 4 AM CST Monday

* The Flood Watch remains in effect where the heaviest rains have
  occurred over the past 24 hours. Widespread 3 to 5 inches of
  rain has fallen over the watch area, with a few totals of 6 to 9 
  inches observed over portions of the western Florida panhandle. 

* Periods of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall will continue
  through tonight, with an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall 
  possible, with isolated higher totals. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$
196 
WGUS64 KMOB 120942
FFAMOB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mobile AL
342 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

.Heaviest rains have moved off to the east of the area, thus the 
flood threat due to heavy rainfall has ended.

ALZ056-059-060-262-264-266-FLZ201>206-121045-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180212T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Conecuh-Escambia-Covington-Baldwin Inland-Baldwin Central-
Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-Escambia Coastal-
Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Inland-
Okaloosa Coastal-
Including the cities of Evergreen, Atmore, Brewton, Flomaton, 
Andalusia, Opp, Stockton, Bay Minette, Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, 
Spanish Fort, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Century, 
Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, Ensley, Fort Pickens, Pensacola, 
Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, Jay, Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, 
Navarre, Crestview, Destin, Eglin AFB, Fort Walton Beach, 
Niceville, Seminole, Valparaiso, and Wright
342 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch for portions of Alabama and northwest Florida has
been cancelled. The threat of flooding due to heavy rain has 
ended as the more widespread heavy precipitation has moved off to
the east of the area. 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Mobile, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Feb 10, 11:25 PM CST, 4 hours 50 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 10, 11:25 PM CST, 4 hours 50 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1125 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z issuance...IFR to low end MVFR CIGs/VISBYs expected until
close to sunrise, then ease for a few hours (guidance is pretty
consistent in this). Rain and few tsra return by noontime and last
well into the evening hours. All in all, looks like more rain than
not continues.

/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 949 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

UPDATE...Widespread rain over the area coupled with sunset has
cutoff any surfaced based instability over land. Over water, every
indication that we still have surface based cells, so may still
have a few strong storms overnight. Otherwise, current package on
track, with dense fog still present over Mobile Bay. No updates
planned attm, though will send out an updated package just to
refresh.

/16

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 528 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for marine areas and aviation
discussion below.

MARINE...With a band of dense fog already in evidence visually
and on some near Bay obs, have put out a dense fog advisory for
mainly the fog-prone western half of Mobile Bay.

/16

AVIATION...
00Z issuance...CIGs/VISBYs will be bouncing around between LIFR to
low end MVFR with stratus/fog streaming north from off the Gulf
over area TAF sites. Do not see a significant change as a surface
boundary sags south and stalls along the coast by the end of the
afternoon Sunday.

/16

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday/...Will continue to remain active
this period. A long wave trof over the central CONUS with a large
plume of deep Gulf moisture was spreading from the western Gulf,
northeast all the way up into the Ohio Valley. Within the deep
moisture, a strongly diffluent flow aloft was positioned from
Louisiana to the Tennessee River Valley, supporting deep layer
ascent well east of a cold front which was analyzed from the Ohio
River Valley, southwest into central Texas. The upper trof over
the Plains moves very little and in fact sharpens during the day
Sunday as upper level energy dives southeast across the Desert
southwest tonight. An active high level southwest flow remains in
place from the western Gulf to the Appalachians as a slow
southeastward moving frontal zone slips into the Lower MS River
Valley. Along and ahead of the front, an assessment of forecast
deep layer Gulf moisture (pwats 1.4 to 1.7 inches) is very high
and is found to be around the 90th percentile above the climatological
normal for Feb 11th. Considering the passage of mid level impulses
in the southwest flow aloft, approaching front and anomalously
high amounts of deep moisture favor the continuance of high chances
of rain in the near term. Some of the rains will be efficient in
producing locally heavy rainfall. A marginal risk of excessive
rains shift eastward over the region.

As far as severe weather, a slight risk of severe storms has been
expanded from southern MS eastward to along portions of the
northwest FL Gulf coast to account for storms developing along a
convergent band over the AL/northwest FL Gulf coastal waters and
moving inland. Some of these storms have the potential of
developing linear segments capable of damaging winds while more
discreet cells may produce a brief isolated tornado. Threat of
severe weather may lower into the evening as surface flow veers
more southerly. Storms moving up across interior southeast MS may
have the potential to intensify as better instability is realized.
For Sunday, a marginal risk of severe weather is in place for much
of the area.

Another hazard is the potential of fog along area bays and sounds
that expand northward across the southern half of the local area
tonight. This is supported by the latest high resolution HRRR,
NAM12 and high probabilities in the 10.15Z SREF. Fog may persist
over bays and sounds thru the day Sunday. /10

SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/...A cold front
initially located near the northwestern portion of the forecast
area slowly shifts southeastward to be located just east and south
of the land portion of the forecast area by late Monday
afternoon. A series of shortwaves embedded within the southwest
flow aloft continue to move across the area meanwhile along with
deep layer moisture remaining very high compared to seasonable
normals. With the slow movement of the front during the period,
will have categorical pops Sunday evening along and east of I-65
with good chance to likely pops further to the west, which then
gradually taper through Monday afternoon to good chance pops near
the coast and chance pops further inland. Additional rainfall
amounts during Sunday night into Monday will ranging from near
1.25 inches at the coast to less than a half inch well inland.
Expect a continuing potential for nuisance type flooding mainly
for the coastal counties through Monday morning.  The front is
expected to have stalled over or just south of the marine area by
Monday evening and remains in this position before eventually
dissipating. A series of shortwaves continue to move across the
area through Tuesday with deep layer moisture remaining elevated,
however with the front expected to remain south of the land
portion of the area, pops are in turn expected to be at best in
the slight chance to chance range for the remainder of the period.
/29

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...A broad upper ridge is
expected to dominate the Gulf through the period with a fairly
zonal flow over the forecast area while two upper trofs pass well
north of the area. There are uncertainties regarding the timing
of these upper systems which leads to uncertainty as to when an
associated surface low well to the north brings a weak trailing
cold front into the southeast states. At this time, the front is
expected to move into the Gulf coast states on Friday, then moves
to near the coast by Saturday morning but with low confidence
overall on this feature. Have gone with generally low end pops
through Friday followed by chance pops for most of the area by
Saturday. /29

MARINE...A light to moderate southerly flow continues through
Sunday night while a cold front approaches from the north. Patchy
fog is expected to persists over the bays and near shore waters
through Sunday. The front moves into the marine area on Monday and
stalls with winds becoming northeast to east. An easterly flow
prevails on Tuesday then becomes southeasterly on Wednesday. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Sunday for GMZ630-631.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 10, 4:58 PM CST, 11 hours 17 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
458 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

ALZ051>060-261>264-FLZ201-203-205-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-112300-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Escambia Inland-Santa Rosa Inland-Okaloosa Inland-
Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
458 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama, northwest Florida and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Periods of locally heavy rain may bring localized nuisance type
flooding of poor drainage areas and some small creeks. A few strong
to briefly severe storms is possible through this evening. Main
threat will be localized damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A marginal risk of severe storms possible over much of the local
area on Sunday. Main threat will be localized damaging wind gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado. Locally heavy rainfall will also again
be possible on Sunday over the entire area. Minor flooding of area
rivers and isolated flash flooding will be possible generally along
and southeast of Interstate 65.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ALZ265-266-FLZ202-204-206-112300-
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Coastal-
458 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Alabama and
northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Periods of locally heavy rain may bring localized nuisance type
flooding of poor drainage areas and some small creeks. A few strong
to briefly severe storms is possible through this evening. Main
threat will be localized damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado.

Patchy fog develops tonight with visibility lowering to between 1
and 3 miles. Fog could become locally dense in some areas with
restrictions to visibility lowering to a half mile or less.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A marginal risk of severe storms possible over much of the local
area on Sunday. Main threat will be localized damaging wind gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado. Locally heavy rainfall will also again
be possible on Sunday over the entire area. Minor flooding of area
rivers and isolated flash flooding possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-112300-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL
out 20 NM-Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
458 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Winds, waves and seas locally higher in and near the passage of
marine storms. Lightning activity enhanced in storms. Rain and areas
of fog, occasionally lowering visibility below 1 mile, possible
overnight over bays, sounds and near shore waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Winds, waves and seas locally higher in and near the passage of
marine storms. Lightning activity enhanced in storms. Rain and fog,
occasionally lowering visibility below 1 mile, possible Sunday into
Monday.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Feb 10, 11:59 PM CST, 4 hours 16 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1159 PM CST SAT FEB 10 2018

FLZ203>206-110645-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Okaloosa Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Coastal FL-
Santa Rosa Inland FL-
1159 PM CST SAT FEB 10 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHWESTERN OKALOOSA AND SOUTHEASTERN SANTA ROSA COUNTIES UNTIL 1245
AM CST...

At 1157 PM CST, the strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles southwest
of Navarre Beach, or 14 miles east of Gulf Breeze, moving northeast
at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Radar
also indicates rotation with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Navarre and Navarre Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3028 8705 3036 8701 3037 8692 3037 8700
      3067 8682 3057 8657 3028 8682 3025 8699
TIME...MOT...LOC 0557Z 211DEG 33KT 3030 8692
Special weather statement, Feb 11, 12:48 AM CST, 3 hours 27 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1248 AM CST SUN FEB 11 2018

FLZ205-206-110730-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Okaloosa Coastal FL-
1248 AM CST SUN FEB 11 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHEASTERN OKALOOSA COUNTY UNTIL 130 AM CST...

At 1248 AM CST, the strong thunderstorm was located over Cinco Bayou,
or over Fort Walton Beach, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wright, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Destin, Eglin AFB, Valparaiso,
Mary Esther, Ocean City, Lake Lorraine, Shalimar, Cinco Bayou and
Eglin Air Force Base.

LAT...LON 3038 8642 3036 8682 3080 8639 3046 8639
      3048 8632
TIME...MOT...LOC 0648Z 219DEG 29KT 3039 8659
Special weather statement, Feb 11, 2:46 AM CST, 1 hour 29 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
246 AM CST SUN FEB 11 2018

ALZ052-261-263-MSZ076-079-110930-
Washington AL-Mobile Central AL-Mobile Inland AL-Greene MS-George MS-
246 AM CST SUN FEB 11 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHWESTERN MOBILE...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...EASTERN GEORGE AND
SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM CST...

At 245 AM CST, the strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles north of
Wade, or 14 miles south of Lucedale, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Citronelle, Chunchula, Gulfcrest and Wilmer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3118 8833 3100 8810 3074 8842 3073 8872
TIME...MOT...LOC 0845Z 221DEG 32KT 3072 8860

The office that day

Everything else NWS Mobile, AL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 10, 11:47 PM CSTAreal Flood AdvisoryMOBEscambia, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa3 hr
Feb 10, 11:59 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementMOBOkaloosa46 min
Feb 11, 12:48 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementMOBOkaloosa42 min
Feb 11, 10:43 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningMOBOkaloosa4 days
Feb 11, 1:04 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningMOBOkaloosa, Santa Rosa59 hr
Feb 10, 6:26 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementMOBClarke49 min
Feb 10, 6:40 PM CSTSpecial Marine WarningMOB65 min
Feb 10, 8:12 PM CSTSpecial Marine WarningMOB48 min
Feb 10, 8:56 PM CSTSpecial Marine WarningMOB49 min
Feb 10, 9:05 PM CSTSpecial Marine WarningMOB55 min
Feb 10, 10:00 PM CSTSpecial Marine WarningMOB60 min
Feb 10, 11:31 PM CSTSpecial Marine WarningMOB59 min
Feb 11, 12:20 AM CSTSpecial Marine WarningMOB55 min
Feb 11, 6:18 AM CSTSpecial Marine WarningMOB87 min
Feb 11, 8:25 AM CSTSpecial Marine WarningMOB65 min
Feb 11, 8:57 AM CSTSpecial Marine WarningMOB63 min
Feb 11, 9:07 AM CSTSpecial Marine WarningMOB53 min
Feb 11, 9:18 AM CSTSpecial Marine WarningMOB57 min
Feb 11, 10:10 AM CSTSpecial Marine WarningMOB65 min
Feb 11, 11:08 AM CSTSpecial Marine WarningMOB67 min
Feb 11, 12:19 PM CSTSpecial Marine WarningMOB56 min
Feb 11, 1:41 PM CSTSpecial Marine WarningMOB64 min

Nearby

Flood Watches in Alabama, 2018Flood Watches in Florida, 2018Every flood watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.