Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Mobile, AL

159 
WGUS64 KMOB 132025
FFAMOB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mobile AL
325 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...

.Periods of heavy rain are expected to move eastward over the
watch area Saturday. The combination of a potential slow eastward
movement of a frontal system and high rainfall rates favor an 
increased potential of quick runoff and instances of flash 
flooding, especially in lower lying areas subject to flooding 
problems.

ALZ054-140500-
/O.EXA.KMOB.FF.A.0001.180414T1200Z-180415T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wilcox-
Including the cities of Camden and Pine Hill
325 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Mobile has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include a portion of south central 
  Alabama, including the following area, Wilcox. 

* From Saturday morning through late Saturday night

* The latest storm total rainfall forecast continues to advertise
  2 to 4 inches along and west of the I-65 corridor. The highest
  totals will be favored in the vicinity of southeast Mississippi
  and adjacent southwest Alabama, roughly west of a Mobile to
  Camden Alabama line, where isolated rainfall amounts of 5 or
  more inches will be possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

ALZ051>053-261-263-265-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-140500-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0001.180414T1200Z-180415T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Mobile Inland-Mobile Central-
Mobile Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
Including the cities of Butler, Lisman, Silas, Chatom, Millry, 
Grove Hill, Jackson, Thomasville, Citronelle, Saraland, Mobile, 
Prichard, Theodore, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Grand Bay, 
Waynesboro, Beaumont, New Augusta, Richton, Leakesville, McLain, 
Wiggins, and Lucedale
325 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southwest Alabama and southeast Mississippi, 
  including the following areas, in southwest Alabama, Choctaw, 
  Clarke, Mobile Central, Mobile Coastal, Mobile Inland, and 
  Washington. In southeast Mississippi, George, Greene, Perry, 
  Stone, and Wayne. 

* From Saturday morning through late Saturday night

* The latest storm total rainfall forecast continues to advertise
  2 to 4 inches along and west of the I-65 corridor. The highest
  totals will be favored in the vicinity of southeast Mississippi
  and adjacent southwest Alabama, roughly northwest of a Mobile to
  Camden Alabama line, where isolated rainfall amounts of 5 or 
  more inches will be possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

942 
WGUS64 KMOB 140213 AAA
FFAMOB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
913 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...

.The combination of a slow moving frontal system, abundant
available moisture and instability will act in concert to 
increase the risk of flash flooding over our region Saturday and 
into Saturday night. 

ALZ055-056-059-262-264-266-FLZ201>204-141015-
/O.EXA.KMOB.FF.A.0001.180414T1200Z-180415T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Monroe-Conecuh-Escambia-Baldwin Inland-Baldwin Central-
Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-Escambia Coastal-
Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Including the cities of Homewood, Monroeville, Evergreen, Atmore,
Brewton, Flomaton, Stockton, Bay Minette, Daphne, Fairhope, 
Foley, Spanish Fort, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, 
Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, Ensley, Fort Pickens, 
Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, Jay, Milton, Bagdad, 
Gulf Breeze, and Navarre
913 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Mobile has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include portions of Alabama and northwest 
  Florida, including the following areas, in Alabama, Baldwin 
  Central, Baldwin Coastal, Baldwin Inland, Conecuh, Escambia, 
  and Monroe. In northwest Florida, Escambia Coastal, Escambia 
  Inland, Santa Rosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Inland. 

* From 7 AM CDT Saturday through late Saturday night

* The latest rainfall forecast is 2 to 4 inches west of a Camden
  AL to near Pensacola FL line during the watch period. The 
  highest rainfall totals are forecast over interior southeast 
  Mississippi and adjacent southwest Alabama and east over to the 
  Pensacola area 3-5" of rainfall is forecast. Isolated rainfall 
  amounts could exceed 6".
 
* Areas of flash flooding possible. Flash flooding can being with
  as little as 2-3" in an hour, and much less over urbanized 
  areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

ALZ051>054-261-263-265-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-141015-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0001.180414T1200Z-180415T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Mobile Inland-Mobile Central-
Mobile Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
Including the cities of Butler, Lisman, Silas, Chatom, Millry, 
Grove Hill, Jackson, Thomasville, Camden, Pine Hill, Citronelle, 
Saraland, Mobile, Prichard, Theodore, Bayou La Batre, 
Dauphin Island, Grand Bay, Waynesboro, Beaumont, New Augusta, 
Richton, Leakesville, McLain, Wiggins, and Lucedale
913 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT SATURDAY
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Alabama and southeast Mississippi, including the 
  following areas, in Alabama, Choctaw, Clarke, Mobile Central, 
  Mobile Coastal, Mobile Inland, Washington, and Wilcox. In 
  southeast Mississippi, George, Greene, Perry, Stone, and 
  Wayne. 

* From 7 AM CDT Saturday through late Saturday night

* The latest rainfall forecast is 2 to 4 inches west of a Camden
  AL to near Pensacola FL line during the watch period. The 
  highest rainfall totals are forecast over interior southeast 
  Mississippi and adjacent southwest Alabama and east over to the 
  Pensacola area 3-5" of rainfall is forecast. Isolated rainfall 
  amounts could exceed 6".

* Areas of flash flooding possible. Flash flooding can being with
  as little as 2-3" in an hour, and much less over urbanized 
  areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

017 
WGUS64 KMOB 140936
FFAMOB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mobile AL
436 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

.Widespread showers and thunderstorms will move across the region
today into tonight ahead of a slow moving frontal system. Abundant
moisture and instability will bring potential for very heavy 
rainfall and an increased risk of flash flooding across much of 
the area through this evening.

ALZ057-141800-
/O.EXA.KMOB.FF.A.0001.180414T1200Z-180415T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Butler-
Including the city of Greenville
436 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Mobile has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include a portion of south central Alabama,
  including the following area, Butler. 

* Through late tonight

* Showers and thunderstorms will spread across the region today
  and tonight, and will be capable of producing very heavy
  rainfall. The latest rainfall forecast is 2 to 4 inches west of
  a Greenville Alabama to Navarre Florida line during the watch 
  period. Higher rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are forecast 
  across much of southeast Mississippi and interior southwest 
  Alabama. Isolated rainfall amounts over 6 inches will be 
  possible in the watch area. 

* Areas of flash flooding are possible. Flash flooding can begin
  with as little as 2 to 3 inches of rain in an hour, and much 
  less over urbanized areas. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

ALZ051>056-059-261>266-FLZ201>204-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-141800-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0001.180414T1200Z-180415T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Escambia-
Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-Baldwin Central-
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-Escambia Coastal-
Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-
George-
Including the cities of Butler, Lisman, Silas, Chatom, Millry, 
Grove Hill, Jackson, Thomasville, Camden, Pine Hill, Homewood, 
Monroeville, Evergreen, Atmore, Brewton, Flomaton, Citronelle, 
Saraland, Stockton, Mobile, Prichard, Theodore, Bay Minette, 
Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Spanish Fort, Bayou La Batre, 
Dauphin Island, Grand Bay, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, 
Orange Beach, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, Ensley, 
Fort Pickens, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, Jay, 
Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Waynesboro, Beaumont, 
New Augusta, Richton, Leakesville, McLain, Wiggins, and Lucedale
436 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Alabama, northwest Florida, and southeast 
  Mississippi, including the following areas, in Alabama, 
  Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, Baldwin Inland, Choctaw, 
  Clarke, Conecuh, Escambia, Mobile Central, Mobile Coastal, 
  Mobile Inland, Monroe, Washington, and Wilcox. In northwest 
  Florida, Escambia Coastal, Escambia Inland, Santa Rosa 
  Coastal, and Santa Rosa Inland. In southeast Mississippi, 
  George, Greene, Perry, Stone, and Wayne. 

* Through late tonight

* Showers and thunderstorms will spread across the region today
  and tonight, and will be capable of producing very heavy
  rainfall. The latest rainfall forecast is 2 to 4 inches west of
  a Greenville Alabama to Navarre Florida line during the watch 
  period. Higher rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are forecast 
  across much of southeast Mississippi and interior southwest 
  Alabama. Isolated rainfall amounts over 6 inches will be 
  possible in the watch area. 

* Areas of flash flooding are possible. Flash flooding can begin
  with as little as 2 to 3 inches of rain in an hour, and much 
  less over urbanized areas. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

916 
WGUS64 KMOB 141804
FFAMOB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mobile AL
104 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT...

.Widespread showers and thunderstorms will move eastward across 
the region the remainder of the day and into tonight, ahead of a 
slow moving frontal system. Abundant moisture and instability will
bring potential for very heavy rainfall and an increased risk of 
flash flooding across much of the area through this evening.

ALZ051>057-059-261>266-FLZ201>204-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-150200-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180415T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Escambia-
Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-Baldwin Central-
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-Escambia Coastal-
Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-
George-
Including the cities of Butler, Lisman, Silas, Chatom, Millry, 
Grove Hill, Jackson, Thomasville, Camden, Pine Hill, Homewood, 
Monroeville, Evergreen, Greenville, Atmore, Brewton, Flomaton, 
Citronelle, Saraland, Stockton, Mobile, Prichard, Theodore, 
Bay Minette, Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Spanish Fort, 
Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Grand Bay, Fort Morgan, 
Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, 
Ensley, Fort Pickens, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, 
Jay, Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Waynesboro, Beaumont, 
New Augusta, Richton, Leakesville, McLain, Wiggins, and Lucedale
104 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Alabama, northwest Florida, and southeast 
  Mississippi, including the following areas, in Alabama, 
  Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, Baldwin Inland, Butler, 
  Choctaw, Clarke, Conecuh, Escambia, Mobile Central, Mobile 
  Coastal, Mobile Inland, Monroe, Washington, and Wilcox. In 
  northwest Florida, Escambia Coastal, Escambia Inland, Santa 
  Rosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Inland. In southeast Mississippi, 
  George, Greene, Perry, Stone, and Wayne. 

* Through late tonight

* Showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward across the region
  the remainder of the day and into tonight. Storms will be 
  capable of producing very heavy rainfall. The latest rainfall 
  forecast is 2 to 4 inches west of a Greenville Alabama to 
  Navarre Florida line during the watch period. Higher rainfall 
  amounts of 3 to 5 inches are forecast across much of southeast 
  Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama. Isolated rainfall 
  amounts over 6 inches will be possible in the watch area. 

* Areas of flash flooding are possible. Flash flooding can begin 
  with as little as 2 to 3 inches of rain in an hour, and much 
  less over urbanized areas. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

778 
WGUS64 KMOB 142217
FFAMOB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mobile AL
517 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY TO RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING ACROSS 
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE 
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO TONIGHT...

.Widespread showers and thunderstorms will move eastward across 
the region through tonight, ahead of a slow moving frontal 
system. Abundant moisture and instability will bring potential for
very heavy rainfall and an elevated to significant threat of  
flash flooding across much of the area through tonight.

ALZ051>057-059-261>266-FLZ201>204-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-150600-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180415T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Escambia-
Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-Baldwin Central-
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-Escambia Coastal-
Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-
George-
Including the cities of Butler, Lisman, Silas, Chatom, Millry, 
Grove Hill, Jackson, Thomasville, Camden, Pine Hill, Homewood, 
Monroeville, Evergreen, Greenville, Atmore, Brewton, Flomaton, 
Citronelle, Saraland, Stockton, Mobile, Prichard, Theodore, 
Bay Minette, Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Spanish Fort, 
Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Grand Bay, Fort Morgan, 
Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, 
Ensley, Fort Pickens, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, 
Jay, Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Waynesboro, Beaumont, 
New Augusta, Richton, Leakesville, McLain, Wiggins, and Lucedale
517 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Alabama, northwest Florida, and southeast 
  Mississippi, including the following areas, in Alabama, 
  Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, Baldwin Inland, Butler, 
  Choctaw, Clarke, Conecuh, Escambia, Mobile Central, Mobile 
  Coastal, Mobile Inland, Monroe, Washington, and Wilcox. In 
  northwest Florida, Escambia Coastal, Escambia Inland, Santa 
  Rosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Inland. In southeast Mississippi, 
  George, Greene, Perry, Stone, and Wayne. 

* Until 1 AM CDT Sunday

* A line of showers and storms has eased into interior southeast
  Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama where heavy rains
  since early afternoon has resulted in numerous reports of 3 to 6
  inches. With the line being nearly stationary, there are
  concerns that an additional 3 to 6 inches is becoming more
  likely over these areas leading to a significant threat of
  flooding. As the line begins to spread eastward tonight, an
  elevated threat of flooding rains extends eastward across the
  I-65 corridor. 
 
* Flash flooding can begin with as little as 2 to 3 inches of 
  rain in an hour, and much less over urbanized areas. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
Be especially cautious at night when the hazards of flash flooding
will be more difficult to see. 

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

027 
WGUS64 KMOB 150545
FFAMOB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1245 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...Flash Flood Watch No Longer in Effect...

ALZ051>057-059-261>266-FLZ201>204-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-150645-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180415T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Escambia-
Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-Baldwin Central-
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-Escambia Coastal-
Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-
George-
Including the cities of Butler, Lisman, Silas, Chatom, Millry, 
Grove Hill, Jackson, Thomasville, Camden, Pine Hill, Homewood, 
Monroeville, Evergreen, Greenville, Atmore, Brewton, Flomaton, 
Citronelle, Saraland, Stockton, Mobile, Prichard, Theodore, 
Bay Minette, Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Spanish Fort, 
Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Grand Bay, Fort Morgan, 
Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, 
Ensley, Fort Pickens, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, 
Jay, Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Waynesboro, Beaumont, 
New Augusta, Richton, Leakesville, McLain, Wiggins, and Lucedale
1245 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of Alabama, northwest Florida,
and southeast Mississippi has been cancelled.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
642 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...MVFR to VFR conditions through about 14.06z
followed by mostly IFR cigs and visibilties through 14.12z. Lower
cigs and visibilties mostly in low stratus, light fog and
isolated showers late this evening and overnight. Winds will be
mostly southeast at 12 to 16 knots with slightly higher gusts
through 14.12z. 32/ee

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 501 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018/

..SEVERE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...

NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday night/...A broad mid to upper
ridge of high pressure generally located along the eastern
seaboard will continue to shift east today and tonight in response
to a deep upper low/trough moving eastward from the central
rockies to the central plains today and tonight. With this system
strong mid level forcing is noted to the east and south of the
upper low center maintaining strength through tonight. Further
east a wide band of heavy precip is noted ahead and along a well
defined surface cold front progged to reach the lower MS river
valley by early Sat morning. Well ahead of the front increased
isentropic lift is noted generally on the back side of a strong
surface ridge that stretches from the western Atlantic to the
lower MS river valley today and tonight. Increased surface based
instability is depicted with this pattern beginning late tonight
continuing through early Sat morning possibly helping to generate
a few isolated showers or thunderstorms over extreme western
sections of the forecast area or inland areas of southeast MS
generally from midnight tonight through about 7 am CDT Sat
morning. Brief periods of heavy rain and gusty winds may accompany
some of the isolated thunderstorms early Sat before much better
coverage approaches from the west later in the day. A moderate to
strong onshore flow develops today and continues through tonight
allowing much deeper moisture to advect inland in the near term
period leading to increasing clouds throughout day and overnight.
The best sunshine will occur early in the day especially over most
inland locations generally along the east of the I-65 corridor.
Surface temps will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with
better moisture in the lower levels of the boundary layer leading
to higher humidity levels today and tonight. Highs today will be a
few degrees above seasonal norms followed by lows 10 to 15
degrees above seasonal values. Highs today will climb to the upper
70s to lower 80s for most inland areas and the lower to middle
70s along the immediate coast. Lows tonight will range from the
mid 60s for most inland areas and the upper 60s to near 70
generally along and south of the I-10 corridor.

With the better onshore flow and increasing swell well offshore a
high risk for dangerous rip currents will form along the gulf
beaches of AL and NWFL late today and tonight, continuing into the
weekend. Heavy surf will also be possible by late tonight going
into the weekend. 32/ee

SHORT TERM /Saturday Through Sunday night/...A deep upper level
low centered over the central Plains early Saturday morning will
slowly lift northeastward toward the vicinity of northern Missouri
and Iowa through Saturday night. An associated surface cold front
approaching the Mississippi River Valley early Saturday morning
should make a slow eastward progression and enter our southeast
Mississippi counties by late Saturday afternoon or early Saturday
evening, before pushing eastward across our CWA through late
Saturday night into early Sunday morning. A zone of deep layer
forcing in the favored ascent region east of the deep upper trough
axis and along/immediately ahead of the surface cold front will
bring a well-organized quasi-linear convective system (QLCS)
eastward from the Mississippi River Valley early Saturday morning
and eventually across our forecast area Saturday afternoon through
late Saturday night. Short range models are in a little better
agreement with the progression and timing of the QLCS early this
morning, though there are still some timing differences noted
between the deterministic guidance and some of the high resolution
convection allowing models. Our latest thinking hasn't changed
much with respect to overall timing. It appears that the line will
enter our southeast Mississippi counties late Saturday morning
into early Saturday afternoon, before slowly making its way toward
the I-65 corridor late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening,
then across eastern portions of the CWA late Saturday evening
through the overnight hours Saturday night.

There will continue to be an enhanced potential of damaging winds
and potentially a couple of tornadoes with the QLCS Saturday as a
strong 40-50 knot low level jet will be in phase with moderate
instability (MLCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/KG) along and
immediately ahead of the line. We will also have to monitor for a
few discrete rotating storms in advance of the line through the
day. SPC continues to advertise an Enhanced risk of severe storms
for most of the area Saturday - which looks well warranted given
these parameters. The severe threat may commence in our western
zones late Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon, shifting
across central and eastern portions of the area through the rest
of the afternoon and evening. The overall severe threat should
diminish around or shortly after midnight as instability wanes and
dynamics shift to the east of the area.

Heavy rainfall and an Elevated flooding potential will also
accompany the QLCS as it slowly moves across our forecast area
Saturday into Saturday night. The latest QPF forecast continues to
generally advertise 2 to 4 inches of rainfall especially along
and west of the I-65 corridor. The highest totals will be favored
in the vicinity of southeast Mississippi and adjacent southwest
Alabama, roughly northwest of a Mobile to Grove Hill line, where
isolated rainfall amounts of 5 or more inches will be possible. A
Flash Flood Watch still may eventually become necessary over this
general part of our area. Given that there is still some uncertainty
on the timing and progression of the line, and with coordination
between surrounding offices, we have decided to hold off on a
Flash Flood Watch issuance on this shift and let the next shift
take another assessment of timing and the overall heavy rainfall
and flooding threat. For now we will continue to advertise the
Elevated flood graphics in our western zones with mention of at
least isolated flash flooding.

A threat of deadly rip currents will also continue into the
weekend. /21

LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...A dry northwest to zonal
flow prevails through the long term period and will maintain a dry
forecast. Below normal temperatures can be expected Monday and
Tuesday mornings, before a warming trend returns mid to late in
the week. /21

MARINE...Southerly winds and seas will gradually build today
through Saturday ahead of strong cold front approaching from the
west. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms area expected
ahead and along the front with a few strong thunderstorms possible
with wind gusts ranging from 40 to 50 knots or slightly higher. Seas
possibly from 8 to 10 feet well offshore will also be possible over
the weekend. Small craft will have to exercise caution today and
tonight. Small craft advisories will likely be required on Saturday
continuing into the early part of next week. 32/ee

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from 6 PM CDT this evening through late
     Sunday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 6 PM CDT this evening through late
     Sunday night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
824 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

ALZ265-266-FLZ202-204-206-141330-
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Coastal-
824 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Alabama and
northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

An organized line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to spread
across the area Saturday into Saturday night. Some storms will
likely become severe, particularly from late Saturday morning
through Saturday evening. Conditions will be favorable for an
enhanced potential of damaging straight line winds with these
storms, though a few brief tornadoes will also be possible. The slow
moving line of showers and thunderstorms will bring an increased
potential of heavy rainfall and an elevated risk of flooding across
locations especially along and west of a Greenville Alabama to
Pensacola Florida line Saturday and Saturday night. A limited risk
of flooding of urban and low lying areas can still be expected east
of this line across the rest of the region.

There will be a high risk of deadly rip currents along the Alabama
and northwest Florida panhandle beaches through the weekend. High
surf of 4 to 7 feet may also impact local beaches Saturday and
Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Saturday and Saturday night.

ALZ051>060-261>264-FLZ201-203-205-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-141330-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Escambia Inland-Santa Rosa Inland-Okaloosa Inland-
Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
824 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama, northwest Florida and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

An organized line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to spread
across the area Saturday into Saturday night. Some storms will
likely become severe, particularly from late Saturday morning
through Saturday evening. Conditions will be favorable for an
enhanced potential of damaging straight line winds with these
storms, though a few brief tornadoes will also be possible. The slow
moving line of showers and thunderstorms will bring an increased
potential of heavy rainfall and an elevated risk of flooding across
locations especially along and west of a Greenville Alabama to
Pensacola Florida line Saturday and Saturday night. A limited risk
of flooding of urban and low lying areas can still be expected east
of this line across the rest of the region.

There will be a high risk of deadly rip currents along the Alabama
and northwest Florida panhandle beaches through the weekend. High
surf of 4 to 7 feet may also impact local beaches Saturday and
Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Saturday and Saturday night.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-141330-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL
out 20 NM-Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
824 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous conditions for small craft can be expected today and
tonight. Small craft should exercise caution.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous conditions for small craft can be expected Saturday
through early next week. Small Craft Advisories will likely be
required Saturday through early next week.

Showers and thunderstorms will likely spread across the marine area
Saturday and Saturday night. There is still uncertainty on the
timing and overall strength of these storms, but it does appear that
a few strong to severe storms will be possible, capable of producing
high winds and locally higher seas, waterspouts, and very heavy
rainfall.