River Flood Warning 20, NWS Mobile, AL

554 
WGUS84 KMOB 140126
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
825 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-150123-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0020.180418T0600Z-000000T0000Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.180418T0600Z.180418T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
825 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* From early Wednesday morning until further notice.
* At 8PM Friday the stage was 10.7 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early Wednesday morning and continue to 
  rise near 18 feet by early Wednesday morning. Additional rises are possible 
  thereafter.
* At 18 feet...Considerable flooding of agricultural and lowlands near the 
  river.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

534 
WGUS84 KMOB 141515
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1015 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-151514-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0020.180418T0600Z-180419T0600Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.180418T0600Z.180418T0600Z.180419T0000Z.NO/
1015 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...Flood Warning extended until late Wednesday night...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* From early Wednesday morning until late Wednesday night.
* At 9 AM Saturday the stage was 9.2 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early Wednesday morning and continue to rise near 18 feet by early Wednesday morning. The river will fall below 
  flood stage by Wednesday night.
* At 18 feet...Considerable flooding of agricultural and lowlands near the 
  river.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

341 
WGUS84 KMOB 150127
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
826 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-160125-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0020.180419T0000Z-180419T1200Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.180419T0000Z.180419T0000Z.180419T0600Z.NO/
826 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Thursday morning...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* From Wednesday evening until Thursday morning.
* At 7PM Saturday the stage was 9.9 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by Wednesday evening and then
  begin to slowly fall. 
* At 18 feet...Considerable flooding of agricultural and lowlands near the 
  river.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

088 
WGUS84 KMOB 151511
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1011 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-161510-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0020.180415T1625Z-000000T0000Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.180415T1625Z.180419T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1011 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* From late this morning until further notice.
* At 9 AM Sunday the stage was 17.3 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by late this morning and continue to rise 
  near 19.5 feet by this evening.
* At 24 feet...Some county roads in the area will become flooded.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

540 
WGUS84 KMOB 160102
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
802 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-170101-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.180415T1710Z.180419T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
802 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until further notice.
* At 7PM Sunday the stage was 19.2 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 21.5 feet by early Thursday morning 
  then begin falling.
* At 24 feet...Some county roads in the area will become flooded.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

661 
WGUS84 KMOB 161434
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
934 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-171434-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-180421T1330Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.180415T1710Z.180418T1200Z.180421T0730Z.NO/
934 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday morning...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until Saturday morning.
* At 9 AM Monday the stage was 20 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 21.5 feet by Wednesday morning. The 
  river will fall below flood stage  early Saturday morning.
* At 24 feet...Some county roads in the area will become flooded.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

250 
WGUS84 KMOB 170042
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
742 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-180040-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-180421T1330Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.180415T1710Z.180418T1200Z.180421T0730Z.NO/
742 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until Saturday morning.
* At 7PM Monday the stage was 20.1 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 21.5 feet by Wednesday morning. The 
  river will fall below flood stage by early Saturday morning.
* At 24 feet...Some county roads in the area will become flooded.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

481 
WGUS84 KMOB 171528
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1028 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-181528-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-180420T1030Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.180415T1710Z.180418T1200Z.180420T0430Z.NO/
1028 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

...Flood Warning extended until late Thursday night for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until late Thursday night.
* At 9 AM Tuesday the stage was 20.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 20.5 feet by tomorrow morning. The 
  river will fall below flood stage on Thursday before midnight.
* At 18 feet...Considerable flooding of agricultural and lowlands near the river.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

645 
WGUS84 KMOB 180147
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
847 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-190147-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-180421T0430Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.180415T1710Z.180418T1200Z.180420T2230Z.NO/
847 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Friday evening...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until Friday evening.
* At 8 PM Tuesday the stage was 20.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 20.5 feet by tomorrow morning. The 
  river will fall below flood stage by Friday afternoon.
* At 19 feet...Flooding of lowlands and agricultural land will continue until 
  water level drops below 18 feet.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

812 
WGUS84 KMOB 181541
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1041 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-191540-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-180420T1800Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.180415T1710Z.180418T0500Z.180420T1200Z.NO/
1041 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Friday afternoon for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until Friday afternoon.
* At 10 AM Wednesday the stage was 20.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue to crest near 20.3 feet today. The river will begin 
  falling tonight and will fall below flood stage by Friday morning.
* At 19 feet...Flooding of lowlands and agricultural land will continue until 
  water level drops below 18 feet.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

728 
WGUS84 KMOB 190216
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
916 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-200216-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-180420T1630Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.180415T1710Z.180418T0500Z.180420T1030Z.NO/
916 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Friday morning...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until Friday morning.
* At 8 PM Wednesday the stage was 20.1 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Friday morning.
* At 19 feet...Flooding of lowlands and agricultural land will continue until water level drops below 18 feet.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

474 
WGUS84 KMOB 191530
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1030 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-201530-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-180420T1840Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.180415T1710Z.180418T0500Z.180420T1240Z.NO/
1030 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Friday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until Friday afternoon.
* At 10AM Thursday the stage was 19.6 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by tomorrow morning.
* At 19 feet...Flooding of lowlands and agricultural land will continue until 
  water level drops below 18 feet.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

282 
WGUS84 KMOB 200211
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
911 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-111-210211-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-180421T0300Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.180415T1710Z.180418T0500Z.180420T2100Z.NO/
911 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Friday evening for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until Friday evening.
* At 8 PM Thursday the stage was 19.2 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by tomorrow afternoon.
* At 19 feet...Flooding of lowlands and agricultural land will continue until 
  water level drops below 18 feet.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

832 
WGUS84 KMOB 201548
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1048 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
Mississippi...
 
  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington 
  Counties. 
  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington Counties. 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties. 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 
  Pascagoula At Merrill affecting George...Greene and Jackson Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC023-025-129-211547-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-180422T1800Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.180416T1027Z.180420T0100Z.180422T1200Z.NO/
1048 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Sunday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam
* until Sunday afternoon.
* At 10AM Friday the stage was 33.5 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Sunday morning.
* At 30.0 feet...Pastureland along the river will remain flooded until flood 
  waters subside. 

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8803 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8806
 3160 8810 3178 8822                  

$$

ALC023-025-129-211547-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-180423T0717Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.180416T1725Z.180420T0800Z.180423T0117Z.NO/
1048 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

...Flood Warning extended until late Sunday night...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Tombigbee River Near Leroy
* until late Sunday night.
* At 10AM Friday the stage was 26.7 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Sunday evening.
* At 24.0 feet...Flooding of low lying farm and pasturelands begins. Cattle in 
  low lying areas need to be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8806 3149 8786 3114 8792
 3114 8802 3149 8793                  

$$

MSC039-041-111-210045-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-180421T0045Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.180415T1710Z.180418T0500Z.180420T1845Z.NO/
1048 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

...Flood Warning extended until this evening...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until this evening.
* At 10AM Friday the stage was 18.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by this afternoon.
* At 18.0 feet...Considerable flooding of agricultural and lowlands near the 
  river.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

MSC039-041-153-211547-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-180422T0120Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.180415T0521Z.180418T1245Z.180421T1920Z.NO/
1048 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday evening...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until Saturday evening.
* At 10AM Friday the stage was 22.8 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by tomorrow early 
  afternoon.
* At 22.0 feet...Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying 
  areas become cut off by high water.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$

MSC039-041-059-210000-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-180421T0000Z/
/MRRM6.1.ER.180416T2025Z.180418T1115Z.180420T1800Z.NO/
1048 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

...Flood Warning extended until this evening...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Pascagoula At Merrill
* until this evening.
* At 10AM Friday the stage was 22.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by this afternoon.
* At 23.5 feet...Water is under homes in Plum Bluff Estates

&&

LAT...LON 3098 8877 3098 8872 3082 8871 3074 8864
 3074 8868 3082 8879                  

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
642 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...MVFR to VFR conditions through about 14.06z
followed by mostly IFR cigs and visibilties through 14.12z. Lower
cigs and visibilties mostly in low stratus, light fog and
isolated showers late this evening and overnight. Winds will be
mostly southeast at 12 to 16 knots with slightly higher gusts
through 14.12z. 32/ee

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 501 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018/

..SEVERE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...

NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday night/...A broad mid to upper
ridge of high pressure generally located along the eastern
seaboard will continue to shift east today and tonight in response
to a deep upper low/trough moving eastward from the central
rockies to the central plains today and tonight. With this system
strong mid level forcing is noted to the east and south of the
upper low center maintaining strength through tonight. Further
east a wide band of heavy precip is noted ahead and along a well
defined surface cold front progged to reach the lower MS river
valley by early Sat morning. Well ahead of the front increased
isentropic lift is noted generally on the back side of a strong
surface ridge that stretches from the western Atlantic to the
lower MS river valley today and tonight. Increased surface based
instability is depicted with this pattern beginning late tonight
continuing through early Sat morning possibly helping to generate
a few isolated showers or thunderstorms over extreme western
sections of the forecast area or inland areas of southeast MS
generally from midnight tonight through about 7 am CDT Sat
morning. Brief periods of heavy rain and gusty winds may accompany
some of the isolated thunderstorms early Sat before much better
coverage approaches from the west later in the day. A moderate to
strong onshore flow develops today and continues through tonight
allowing much deeper moisture to advect inland in the near term
period leading to increasing clouds throughout day and overnight.
The best sunshine will occur early in the day especially over most
inland locations generally along the east of the I-65 corridor.
Surface temps will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with
better moisture in the lower levels of the boundary layer leading
to higher humidity levels today and tonight. Highs today will be a
few degrees above seasonal norms followed by lows 10 to 15
degrees above seasonal values. Highs today will climb to the upper
70s to lower 80s for most inland areas and the lower to middle
70s along the immediate coast. Lows tonight will range from the
mid 60s for most inland areas and the upper 60s to near 70
generally along and south of the I-10 corridor.

With the better onshore flow and increasing swell well offshore a
high risk for dangerous rip currents will form along the gulf
beaches of AL and NWFL late today and tonight, continuing into the
weekend. Heavy surf will also be possible by late tonight going
into the weekend. 32/ee

SHORT TERM /Saturday Through Sunday night/...A deep upper level
low centered over the central Plains early Saturday morning will
slowly lift northeastward toward the vicinity of northern Missouri
and Iowa through Saturday night. An associated surface cold front
approaching the Mississippi River Valley early Saturday morning
should make a slow eastward progression and enter our southeast
Mississippi counties by late Saturday afternoon or early Saturday
evening, before pushing eastward across our CWA through late
Saturday night into early Sunday morning. A zone of deep layer
forcing in the favored ascent region east of the deep upper trough
axis and along/immediately ahead of the surface cold front will
bring a well-organized quasi-linear convective system (QLCS)
eastward from the Mississippi River Valley early Saturday morning
and eventually across our forecast area Saturday afternoon through
late Saturday night. Short range models are in a little better
agreement with the progression and timing of the QLCS early this
morning, though there are still some timing differences noted
between the deterministic guidance and some of the high resolution
convection allowing models. Our latest thinking hasn't changed
much with respect to overall timing. It appears that the line will
enter our southeast Mississippi counties late Saturday morning
into early Saturday afternoon, before slowly making its way toward
the I-65 corridor late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening,
then across eastern portions of the CWA late Saturday evening
through the overnight hours Saturday night.

There will continue to be an enhanced potential of damaging winds
and potentially a couple of tornadoes with the QLCS Saturday as a
strong 40-50 knot low level jet will be in phase with moderate
instability (MLCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/KG) along and
immediately ahead of the line. We will also have to monitor for a
few discrete rotating storms in advance of the line through the
day. SPC continues to advertise an Enhanced risk of severe storms
for most of the area Saturday - which looks well warranted given
these parameters. The severe threat may commence in our western
zones late Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon, shifting
across central and eastern portions of the area through the rest
of the afternoon and evening. The overall severe threat should
diminish around or shortly after midnight as instability wanes and
dynamics shift to the east of the area.

Heavy rainfall and an Elevated flooding potential will also
accompany the QLCS as it slowly moves across our forecast area
Saturday into Saturday night. The latest QPF forecast continues to
generally advertise 2 to 4 inches of rainfall especially along
and west of the I-65 corridor. The highest totals will be favored
in the vicinity of southeast Mississippi and adjacent southwest
Alabama, roughly northwest of a Mobile to Grove Hill line, where
isolated rainfall amounts of 5 or more inches will be possible. A
Flash Flood Watch still may eventually become necessary over this
general part of our area. Given that there is still some uncertainty
on the timing and progression of the line, and with coordination
between surrounding offices, we have decided to hold off on a
Flash Flood Watch issuance on this shift and let the next shift
take another assessment of timing and the overall heavy rainfall
and flooding threat. For now we will continue to advertise the
Elevated flood graphics in our western zones with mention of at
least isolated flash flooding.

A threat of deadly rip currents will also continue into the
weekend. /21

LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...A dry northwest to zonal
flow prevails through the long term period and will maintain a dry
forecast. Below normal temperatures can be expected Monday and
Tuesday mornings, before a warming trend returns mid to late in
the week. /21

MARINE...Southerly winds and seas will gradually build today
through Saturday ahead of strong cold front approaching from the
west. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms area expected
ahead and along the front with a few strong thunderstorms possible
with wind gusts ranging from 40 to 50 knots or slightly higher. Seas
possibly from 8 to 10 feet well offshore will also be possible over
the weekend. Small craft will have to exercise caution today and
tonight. Small craft advisories will likely be required on Saturday
continuing into the early part of next week. 32/ee

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from 6 PM CDT this evening through late
     Sunday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 6 PM CDT this evening through late
     Sunday night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
824 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

ALZ265-266-FLZ202-204-206-141330-
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Coastal-
824 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Alabama and
northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

An organized line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to spread
across the area Saturday into Saturday night. Some storms will
likely become severe, particularly from late Saturday morning
through Saturday evening. Conditions will be favorable for an
enhanced potential of damaging straight line winds with these
storms, though a few brief tornadoes will also be possible. The slow
moving line of showers and thunderstorms will bring an increased
potential of heavy rainfall and an elevated risk of flooding across
locations especially along and west of a Greenville Alabama to
Pensacola Florida line Saturday and Saturday night. A limited risk
of flooding of urban and low lying areas can still be expected east
of this line across the rest of the region.

There will be a high risk of deadly rip currents along the Alabama
and northwest Florida panhandle beaches through the weekend. High
surf of 4 to 7 feet may also impact local beaches Saturday and
Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Saturday and Saturday night.

ALZ051>060-261>264-FLZ201-203-205-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-141330-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Escambia Inland-Santa Rosa Inland-Okaloosa Inland-
Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
824 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama, northwest Florida and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

An organized line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to spread
across the area Saturday into Saturday night. Some storms will
likely become severe, particularly from late Saturday morning
through Saturday evening. Conditions will be favorable for an
enhanced potential of damaging straight line winds with these
storms, though a few brief tornadoes will also be possible. The slow
moving line of showers and thunderstorms will bring an increased
potential of heavy rainfall and an elevated risk of flooding across
locations especially along and west of a Greenville Alabama to
Pensacola Florida line Saturday and Saturday night. A limited risk
of flooding of urban and low lying areas can still be expected east
of this line across the rest of the region.

There will be a high risk of deadly rip currents along the Alabama
and northwest Florida panhandle beaches through the weekend. High
surf of 4 to 7 feet may also impact local beaches Saturday and
Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Saturday and Saturday night.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-141330-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL
out 20 NM-Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
824 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous conditions for small craft can be expected today and
tonight. Small craft should exercise caution.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous conditions for small craft can be expected Saturday
through early next week. Small Craft Advisories will likely be
required Saturday through early next week.

Showers and thunderstorms will likely spread across the marine area
Saturday and Saturday night. There is still uncertainty on the
timing and overall strength of these storms, but it does appear that
a few strong to severe storms will be possible, capable of producing
high winds and locally higher seas, waterspouts, and very heavy
rainfall.