Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
328 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...

...Severe Storm Risk Continues into Early Evening...

Currently...Strong to severe storms around metro Orlando will move
northeast into Volusia and far nrn Brevard county through 5 pm.
Additional strong to severe storms are expected to move northeast
across areas from Osceola to Brevard counties into late afternoon.
Damaging winds, large hail and the possibility of an isolated
tornado will accompany the strongest storms. High resolution
guidance indicates a slight weakening trend to the convective line
as it moves toward Okeechobee/St Lucie and Martin through early
evening. The Tornado Watch continues through 7 pm from Brevard and
Osceola counties northward.

Tonight...Evening convection across Martin/St Lucie will sweep
southeast from Treasure coast into late evening as the surface cold
front will move through the area and a dry slot aloft will work
overhead through the late night hours. Will see clearing skies and
cooler air move into central FL with low level WNW flow. Morning
lows are expected in the 50s.

Previous...Wed-Sat...Dry, breezy/windy and cooler conditions will
occur Wed behind the front then remaining dry and cooler than normal
into the end of the workweek as a continental ridge across the
central U.S. shifts gradually eastward and maintains a predominantly
northerly component across area. Highs will generally range from the
upper 60s to mid 70s Wed, with lows again dropping into the 40s Wed
and Thu nights. High pressure then shifts offshore of the Southeast
U.S. coast into the weekend with flow veering to the south Saturday,
which will warm temperatures to more seasonable readings of 75-80.

Temps will continue to moderate into the 80s Sunday as winds veer SW
well ahead of the next cold front. Another period of dry weather is
indicated into next week with no notable rain chances shown over
land locations for at least the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...
Cluster of SHRA/TSRA around metro Orlando (KISM-KMCO-KSFB) will
continue to move northeast toward KDAB-KTIX corridor into late
afternoon. Additional scattered convection will move northeast
toward KMLB-KVRB 21z-23z and from KFPR-KSUA 22z-01z. Tempo IFR/MVFR
conditions and strong convective wind gusts will be possible with
any storms. Convection will sweep southeast away from KFPR-KSUA into
late evening with VFR conditions overnight and Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...WSW/W winds to 20-25 knots near shore and 25-30 knots
offshore will become NW overnight. No changes to current headlines
with Advisory to Gale conditions expected (Sebastian Inlet northward
offshore). Strong storms will move into the Atlantic late this
afternoon and evening with hail and wind gusts over 40 knots with
stronger storms.

Wed...NW winds to 20 knots near shore and 20-25 knots offshore will
continue through the afternoon. Advisory conditions will continue
with highest seas to 8 to 10 feet well offshore.

Thu-Sat (Previous)...Winds diminishing Thu-Fri with NW winds
countering the Gulf Stream and keeping seas choppy with lingering
headlines for caution over a portion of the waters into late
Thu/Fri. Light winds expected Sat as the ridge becomes oriented
closer to the immediate area. Seas subsiding to 2-3 ft nearshore and
up to 4 ft offshore Fri and continuing Sat with reduction to around
2 to 3 ft seas areawide Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  53  72  43  66 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  57  72  44  70 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  56  75  43  68 /  40   0   0   0
VRB  58  76  42  68 /  40   0   0   0
LEE  55  73  45  70 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  55  72  45  69 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  57  72  48  69 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  57  76  41  70 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Volusia County-Indian River-Inland Volusia County-Martin-
     Northern Brevard County-Northern Lake County-Okeechobee-
     Orange-Osceola-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-Southern
     Lake County-St. Lucie.

     Tornado Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Volusia
     County-Inland Volusia County-Northern Brevard County-
     Northern Lake County-Orange-Osceola-Seminole-Southern
     Brevard County-Southern Lake County.

AM...Tornado Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County
     Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
     60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20
     nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
     Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Thursday for
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
     Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

Volkmer/Spratt/Cristaldi/Ulrich/Glitto/Combs/Rodriguez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1038 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-202200-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
1038 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...

...Enhanced Threat of Severe Weather Across East Central Florida
This Afternoon and Evening...

...Tornado Watch until 7 pm EDT for Lake, Volusia, Seminole, Orange,
Osceola and Brevard Counties...

A squall line is expected to develop ahead of a cold front and move
into areas northwest of I-4 early this afternoon. Ahead of this
line, a few strong to severe storms will continue to form and
push across the northern sections through early afternoon.

The line will push southward with a potential secondary band of
showers and storms farther south over the Gulf moving rapidly
eastward. This will lead to numerous showers and storms pushing
quickly toward the east-northeast across east central Florida around
55 to 60 mph through mid to late afternoon. This activity will then
shift south and offshore of the Treasure Coast by late evening.

Strong to severe storms will occur with this activity. Damaging wind
gusts up to 60 to 70 mph and frequent lightning strikes will be the
main threat from any severe storms, but large hail and isolated
tornadoes will also be possible. Make sure you have a way of
receiving timely severe weather watches and warnings for your area.

.HIGH WIND IMPACT...
Southwest winds will increase up to 20 to 25 mph into the
afternoon with frequent gusts up to 35 mph. A Lake Wind Advisory
is in effect this afternoon through early evening for all of east
central Florida.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A Moderate Risk of rip currents will exist along the beaches of
east central Florida today. Make sure to swim near a lifeguard
and be alert and prepared to take cover for any fast moving strong
to severe storms that cross the beaches and push offshore.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous fast moving storms, pushing rapidly to the
east-northeast up to 50 to 60 knots and offshore through the
afternoon hours are expected across the area. Some storms may be
severe, producing wind gusts up to 60 knots.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
Storms pushing offshore through this afternoon and evening will have
the potential to produce isolated waterspouts over the intracoastal
and adjacent Atlantic waters.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Southwest winds up to 15 to 20 knots over the waters today will
become westerly and increase to around 20 to 25 knots tonight,
with frequent gusts to gale force expected over the offshore
waters of Volusia and Brevard counties. A Small Craft Advisory
goes into effect this afternoon for the entire coastal waters,
with a Gale Warning in effect offshore, north of Sebastian inlet,
into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
Hazardous boating conditions will continue through mid week with
a fresh to strong north to northwest breeze behind the cold front.
A very dry airmass building in behind this boundary will also
lead to a higher fire danger across the area during the afternoon
hours of Wednesday through at least Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should monitor the weather. Formal activation may be
needed.

Weitlich/Glitto

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