River Flood Warning 107, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1155 PM CDT Mon Oct 1 2018

.UPDATE...

Rain has all but ended in the far southeast forecast area, with
mainly dry weather expected for the rest of the night. Cloudy
skies will keep temps a few degrees above seasonal normals
tonight.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

After rain winds down in the southeast over the next hour or so,
mainly dry weather is expected for the rest of the night. High
pressure will keep it dry on Tuesday.

Widespread low ceilings will persist into Tuesday morning. There
should be some improvement in ceilings by Tuesday afternoon,
though possibly no better than MVFR.

Models are suggesting fog could develop tonight given the recent
rain and light winds. Not sure about this though due to cloudy
skies expected through the night. Will have to watch trends
behind the departing rainfall. Currently think visibilities will
probably be no worse than 2-4 miles.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 933 PM CDT Mon Oct 1 2018)

UPDATE...

Rain has come to an end for areas northwest of a line from Monroe
to Port Washington. Rain and isolated thunder will wind down in
the southeast by midnight. Other than a stray shower or two, dry
weather will then be expected across southern Wisconsin overnight.

MARINE...

Decided to extend the Small Craft Advisory from North Point Light
northward until 4 am later tonight due to lingering waves of 4 to
6 feet. Should see waves subside to 2 to 4 feet by daybreak.

Lighter winds and lower waves are expected across Lake Michigan on
Tuesday as high pressure briefly moves through.

Southerly winds will pick up late Tuesday night into Wednesday
ahead of approaching strong low pressure. A Small Craft Advisory
will likely be needed for the nearshore waters Wednesday into
Wednesday night, with winds possibly reaching gale force across
the northern half of Lake Michigan.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 719 PM CDT Mon Oct 1 2018)

UPDATE...

A broad line of moderate to locally heavy rainfall with embedded
thunder continues to trek through the area this evening. Flooding
concerns are not too high, as the heaviest rainfall this evening
is falling south of where the heavy rain fell last night.
The better instability remains south of the WI/IL border, so not
particularly concerned about a severe threat as this wave pushes
through. Will continue to keep an eye on the stronger radar
returns though toward the IL border in case anything tries to get
feisty.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

Rain with embedded thunder will continue to push through this
evening, largely exiting to the east by midnight or shortly
thereafter.

There's a mix of ceilings out there this evening, but think that
widespread low ceilings will settle in behind the
rainfall...persisting into Tuesday morning. There should be some
improvement in ceilings by Tuesday afternoon, though possibly no
better than MVFR.

Models are suggesting fog could develop tonight given the recent
rain and light winds. Not sure about this though due to cloudy
skies expected through the night. Will have to watch trends
behind the departing rainfall.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 348 PM CDT Mon Oct 1 2018)

SHORT TERM...

Rest Of This Afternoon and Tonight...Forecast Confidence Is
Medium.

A slow northward transport of better MLCAPE through cntrl/nrn IL
with passage of northward moving warm front. Still looks like our
CAPE in srn WI will be of the elevated variety, but still a close
enough call in the far south that it bears watching. MESO progs
show a cluster of shra/tsra moving across the area into the mid
evening hours. 850 mb frontogenesis is shifting a bit northward
through CWA. Plenty of 0-6km shear with limited instability.

Primary threat at this point looks to be some hail and some
additional heavy rains. With this precip on the move not expecting
anything more than isolated impacts from the rainfall. So will
hold off on any Flood Watch at this juncture.

Tuesday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Low pressure passing to the east with a surface high settling
across. LLVL RH progs show some clearing potential in the
afternoon, more so on the GFS/ECMWF versus the NAM. Overall
expecting a quiet day within this overall active pattern.

Tuesday Night Through Thursday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are in pretty good agreement with the next system affecting
the area Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Period of focused
warm air advection Tuesday night into Wednesday may bring some
showers and a few storms to the area. However, most of the
activity should focus northwest of the area, as the low level jet
points into that area.

Despite possible clouds on Wednesday, gusty south to southwest
winds should bring warm highs into the upper 70s and lower 80s. If
more sun can develop, temperatures may go higher. Strong cold
front pushes southeast through the area Wednesday evening, exiting
later Wednesday night. Thunderstorms are likely with the front.
The focus for severe storms looks to remain northwest of the area,
though we could still see some stronger storms moving into the
western parts of the area. Marginal risk for severe on SPC Day 3
Outlook seems reasonable, as shear will be quite strong.
Instability will be questionable with possible cloud cover. Not
expecting a lot or rain with this next system.

Things should dry out for Thursday, with cold air advection
moving in. Temperatures will return to more seasonable values.

LONG TERM...

Thursday Night Through Monday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Active patter looks to continue with another system affecting the
region for Thursday night into Friday night, and possible
lingering into Saturday. There are model differences with trends
during this period, with the GFS the taking low pressure northeast
through Wisconsin Friday night and exiting Saturday. The ECMWF and
Canadian keep a slower timing of the low crossing northeast
through the area Saturday. Either way, it looks wet with generally
small chances for thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts are difficult to
pin down at this point, with the model uncertainty. Keep up with
the forecast!

Another warm front may move northward into the area later in the
weekend and early next week. Lots of uncertainty with trends this
far out, but it looks wet and active.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

IFR ceilings in place with low level boundary remaining south of
the area. Expecting some lower vsbys in precip areas. SHRA/TSRA
threat will be greatest through about 04z or so. Ceilings expected
to be at IFR levels into this evening. Some improvement expected
on Tuesday, as low passes by and surface ridging takes hold.

MARINE...

Small Craft Advisory looks good with onshore winds and building
waves. The northern lake continues to look favorable for possible
gale conditions on Wednesday, so a watch will probably be needed
at some point soon for that.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for LMZ643-644.

&&

Update...DDV
Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...Collar
Tuesday Night through Monday...Wood

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
952 PM CDT Mon Oct 1 2018

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-022100-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
952 PM CDT Mon Oct 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

There are mainly small chances for thunderstorms Tuesday night
into Wednesday, with thunderstorms likely later Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday evening. There is a small risk for a
severe thunderstorm late Wednesday afternoon and evening, mainly
over south central Wisconsin.

There are mainly small chances for thunderstorms at times Thursday
night into the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed into this evening, and again
Wednesday late afternoon and evening. Otherwise, your rainfall
reports are appreciated.

LMZ643>646-022100-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
952 PM CDT Mon Oct 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 4 am tonight from
North Point Light northward due to lingering high waves.

Thunderstorms will continue to move across southern portions of Lake
Michigan early tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

There are mainly small chances for thunderstorms Tuesday night
into Wednesday, with thunderstorms likely Wednesday evening.

There are mainly small chances for thunderstorms at times Thursday
night into the weekend.

Winds and waves will likely reach Small Craft Advisory levels
Wednesday into Wednesday night. South to southwest winds will
approach gale force levels Wednesday afternoon.

There are mainly small chances for thunderstorms at times
Thursday night into the weekend.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-022100-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
952 PM CDT Mon Oct 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms will continue to move across southern portions of Lake
Michigan early tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

There are mainly small chances for thunderstorms Tuesday night into
Wednesday, with thunderstorms likely Wednesday evening over the
southern half of the lake.

South to southwest winds will approach gale force levels Wednesday
afternoon, mainly over the north half of the lake. High waves are
possible in this area Wednesday into Wednesday night.

There are mainly small chances for thunderstorms at times Thursday
night into the weekend.

There are mainly small chances for thunderstorms at times Thursday
night into the weekend.

DDV

www.weather.gov/mkx