Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
612 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

.AVIATION...
Forecasts will continue to reflect expected evolution of
convective event, which is not entering extreme western sections
of the forecast area. Expect a near westerly surface wind of
10-18kts to prevail across all sites after 14/12z.

99

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 332 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday
Overall forecast philosophy remains constant during this short
period. Conditions for well organized convection are indicated by
18z KLZK sounding. Still a question remains how quickly convection
will grow upscale to a more linear mode.

Heavy convection is expected to clear southeast sections by 14/14z

Text &&

LONG TERM...Saturday night through Friday

 The biggest concern in
the long term periods will be near-freezing temperatures Sunday
and Monday morning.

Closed upper low will follow the surface system departing on
Saturday night, with the primary track north of the region. Cloud
cover associated with the system will pass through northern
Arkansas, with clearing over the remainder of the area.

With much colder air moving into the region, temperatures will fall
into the 30s in most areas, and we could see readings close to
freezing in the northwest and portions of the west by Sunday
morning. However, the clouds remaining in the north should preclude
a hard freeze.

Surface high pressure will move into the region on Sunday, with
clouds clearing out. Freezing/near-freezing temperatures will be a
little more widespread on Sunday night/Monday morning, with a freeze
most likely in the west and north. Some portions of the northwest
(particularly the usual sheltered valley areas) could see
temperatures in the 20s.

The high will shift eastward Monday into Tuesday, with winds coming
around to the south, and temperatures warming back into the 70s to
around 80 degrees.

Around mid-week, a weaker front will move through the region,
yielding little more than slight rain chances and a slight increase
in cloud cover. There will be slight cooling behind this front.

Toward the end of the week, there will be another system approaching
the area, bringing another chance for rainfall. &&

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Desha-
Drew-Independence-Jackson-Jefferson-Lincoln-Lonoke-Monroe-
Prairie-White-Woodruff.

Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM CDT Saturday FOR Arkansas-Bradley-
Desha-Drew-Lincoln-Monroe.

&&

Aviation...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1000 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-141145-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
1000 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will affect the state tonight, as a storm
system moves through the region. Scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible, with the primary threats of damaging
winds and large hail possible. Also, a few tornadoes will be
possible. The storms ahead of the cold front will gradually move
across Arkansas later tonight and into the overnight. Additionally,
heavy rainfall will be a concern with any stronger storms, with
localized flooding and flash flooding possible.

Also, winds will be elevated today from the south, and be 10 to 20
mph, some gusts to around 25 to 30 mph. Caution is advised on
area bodies of water due to the increased winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday Through Thursday

The storm system will be pushing through Arkansas on Saturday, and
will gradually take the showers and thunderstorms to the east of
the state. Localized flooding could be on going with the heavy
rain from Friday night. Any remaining storms may contain heavy
rain before all moving out of Arkansas Saturday night. Much colder
air again will filter in behind the cold front, and spotty
locations will see around freezing temperatures Sunday and Monday
mornings. Mostly dry Monday and the coming week.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will be needed this evening and into the
overnight due to the potential of severe storms.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

59

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
939 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     TSTM WND DMG     W OPPELO                35.10N  92.77W
04/13/2018                   CONWAY             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWNED NEAR OPPELO

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK201800036

CROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
941 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ADONA                   35.04N  92.90W
04/13/2018                   PERRY              AR   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES DOWNED

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK201800037

CROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
943 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E MORRILTON           35.15N  92.71W
04/13/2018                   CONWAY             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN BETWEEN MORRILTON AND PLUMERVILLE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK201800038

CROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
945 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0942 PM     HAIL             2 NW CONWAY             35.11N  92.47W
04/13/2018  M1.00 INCH       FAULKNER           AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK201800039

CROSS

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