Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
312 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are initial severe storm
threat as the system and cold front move through AR. Isolated
severe storms have developed this afternoon. Winds are elevated
the afternoon and wind advisories are in effect. Then tonight
behind the cold front, very cold air will filter into AR, and
freezing to below freezing temperatures are possible over
northern AR. The cold temperatures continue Thursday morning. Then
chances of rain are back in the forecast late Friday and into the
weekend.

Convection has developed this afternoon along the cold front and
upper lift as it pushes into western AR. Isolated severe storms
have also developed due to in place atmospheric conditions. Large
hail and damaging winds remain the main threats, with an isolated
tornado possible. The 18Z KLZK sounding did have a weak cap
around 6K feet, but expect this to break erode later this
afternoon, especially in the eastern half of AR, and heating and
strong south to southwest winds mix up the atmosphere. Also in the
sounding, precip water was around 1 inch, CAPE of 1600, strong
winds with a low level jet from the southwest were 30 to 40
knots, lower than the 12Z sounding, and high level jet over 100
knots will help with updraft formation. Instability has maxed
this afternoon to early evening with the heating and energy moving
across AR. Scenario remains the same, a few scattered storms
ahead of the cold front, while the max lift will be just ahead and
along the front. Short range models gradually increase convection
over the west this afternoon, then quickly develop line of storms
ahead of the cold front and upper dynamics. Due to the speed of
the line of convection, around one inch or less is them most
expected, while a few isolated higher amounts will be seen. Flash
flooding will be a much lower threat. Otherwise, a strong warm up
today with highs in the 60s, 70s and some 80s over the south. Much
colder air filters in behind the cold front tonight, with upper
20 to around freezing over northern AR with a freeze warning in
effect.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday

Will keep a good chance of convection this afternoon to evening
with the cold front and upper dynamics moving through the state.
Isolated severe storms will be seen. The convection will move
quickly east and be out of the state around midnight. Much cooler
air will filter in over the state, and some freezing temperatures
are forecast Wednesday morning. Chilly on Wednesday with dry
conditions with highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Continued cold
temperatures Wednesday night to Thursday morning with possible
freezing temperatures over parts of northern AR.

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday

Northwest flow will be over much of the country to begin the long
term period. An upper ridge will build over the west coast Friday
with more zonal flow over the rest of the area. A progressive
pattern will continue through the period and by Tuesday an upper
ridge will be over the Rockies and an upper trough will be over
the Great Lakes.

A cold front will move through Arkansas Friday. High pressure moves
into Arkansas for the weekend. The next cold front moves through the
state Monday. Mainly showers with isolated thunderstorms are
expected through the period. However, there could be some wintry
weather in the north and parts of central Friday night into Saturday
morning. Below normal temperatures are expected through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     31  55  35  63 /  20   0   0  10
Camden AR         39  62  37  70 /  40   0   0  10
Harrison AR       27  53  36  62 /  10   0   0  10
Hot Springs AR    35  59  37  67 /  20   0   0  10
Little Rock   AR  36  58  38  66 /  30   0   0  10
Monticello AR     41  59  38  67 /  70   0   0  10
Mount Ida AR      34  59  37  66 /  20   0   0  10
Mountain Home AR  28  53  34  63 /  10   0   0  10
Newport AR        34  55  36  62 /  30   0   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     39  58  38  66 /  40   0   0  10
Russellville AR   33  58  36  65 /  10   0   0  10
Searcy AR         34  56  35  64 /  30   0   0  10
Stuttgart AR      38  57  39  65 /  40   0   0  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR Baxter-Boone-
Cleburne-Fulton-Independence-Izard-Johnson-Logan-Marion-
Montgomery-Newton-Polk-Pope-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-
Yell.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Desha-
Drew-Jackson-Jefferson-Lincoln-Lonoke-Monroe-Prairie-White-
Woodruff.

&&

Short Term...59 / Long Term...51

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
230 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-041000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
230 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon through Tonight

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be seen this
afternoon and evening over Arkansas. A weather system and cold
front will move through the state and develop the scattered strong
to severe storms. The main threats will be damaging winds and large
hail, while a few isolated tornadoes may develop. The storm system
and cold front are expected to push out of Arkansas around midnight.
In the wake of the front, colder air will filter into the state
during the overnight hours. Subfreezing temperatures are likely
across much of northern and western Arkansas Wednesday morning. This
includes much of the Ozark and Ouachita Mountains, and the Arkansas
River Valley west of Morrilton.

Also, ahead of the system today and behind the cold front tonight,
strong winds will be seen at speeds of 20 to 30 mph with some
isolated higher gusts possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday Through Monday

After temperatures fall to around freezing Wednesday morning, a
brief period of dry weather can be expected through Thursday. Rain
will then return Friday into Saturday. Thunderstorms are favored
from southern Arkansas to the Gulf Coast. At this time, chances of
severe weather appear low.

The forecast calls for temperatures dropping below freezing in
about the northern two to three rows of counties Saturday morning.
Not only will this result in a freeze, but also a brief wintry mix
before precipitation ends later in the day.

It will be dry again on Sunday, but a storm system and cold front
from the Plains will trigger another round of showers and
thunderstorms Sunday night.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon through the
evening hours.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

67/46/59

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
447 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     HAIL             CONGO                   34.66N 92.59W
04/03/2018  E0.88 INCH       SALINE             AR   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            REPORT IS FROM THE LAKE NORELL FIRE DEPARTMENT. LOCATION
            IS 9600 BLOCK OF CONGO RD.

&&

51

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
453 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     HAIL             1 NNE BRYANT            34.62N 92.48W
04/03/2018  E1.00 INCH       SALINE             AR   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

51

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
502 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     HAIL             1 NNE MABELVALE         34.67N 92.38W
04/03/2018  E0.75 INCH       PULASKI            AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

51

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
505 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0401 PM     HAIL             MELBOURNE               36.06N 91.90W
04/03/2018  E1.25 INCH       IZARD              AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

51

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
511 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     HAIL             3 SSW SALADO            35.70N 91.62W
04/03/2018  E1.25 INCH       INDEPENDENCE       AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

55