Wind Advisory 3, NWS Little Rock, AR

089 
WWUS74 KLZK 030846
NPWLZK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
346 AM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

...Strong winds expected across the Delta today with at or below
freezing temperatures likely across the west and north tonight...

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>024-030-037-038-040-041-040000-
/O.NEW.KLZK.FZ.W.0001.180404T0700Z-180404T1400Z/
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Logan-Scott-Yell-
Polk-Montgomery-
Including the cities of Harrison, Bull Shoals, Flippin, 
Yellville, Summit, Mountain Home, Mammoth Spring, Cave City, 
Ash Flat, Hardy, Jasper, Western Grove, Marshall, Leslie, 
Mountain View, Horseshoe Bend, Melbourne, Calico Rock, Oxford, 
Batesville, Clarksville, Russellville, Fairfield Bay, Clinton, 
Heber Springs, Booneville, Paris, Waldron, Dardanelle, Danville, 
Ola, Mena, Mount Ida, and Norman
346 AM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Little Rock has issued a Freeze
Warning, which is in effect from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday. 

* EVENT...At or below freezing temperatures expected tonight in 
  the wake of a strong cold front set to move through the state 
  today.

* AREAS AFFECTED...Much of northern and western Arkansas generally
  along and north of a Mena to Mt. Ida to Russellville to 
  Batesville line.
  

* TEMPERATURES...Overnight lows are expected to fall into the mid
  20s to lower 30s. 

* IMPACTS...The cold conditions may damage or kill vegetation and
  crops sensitive to a Spring freeze if precautions are not 
  taken. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.

&&

$$

ARZ025-033-034-045>047-056-057-064-065-069-040000-
/O.CON.KLZK.WI.Y.0003.180403T1200Z-180404T0000Z/
Jackson-White-Woodruff-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Jefferson-Arkansas-
Lincoln-Desha-Drew-
Including the cities of Newport, Searcy, Beebe, Augusta, McCrory,
Cotton Plant, Cabot, Lonoke, Des Arc, Hazen, Brinkley, Clarendon,
Pine Bluff, Stuttgart, De Witt, Star City, Gould, Dumas, Mcgehee,
and Monticello
346 AM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
CDT THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...7 am Tuesday through 7 pm Tuesday.

* WINDS...Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are likely, with gusts 
  as high as 40 mph. 

* IMPACTS...Unsecured outdoor objects such as patio furniture 
  will be susceptible to high winds. Travel may become 
  difficult, particularly for high-profile vehicles. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 25 mph or higher are
expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...
especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

67

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
635 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018

.AVIATION...

Highest confidence for IFR this period remains at northern
terminals, with vis restrictions and low cigs likely through
03/15Z, then some improvement expected. MVFR cigs likely
elsewhere through much of the period, although timing and cig
height could vary from forecast. Gusty SW winds expected area wide
and a cold front approaches NW AR after 03/18Z with winds
gradually shifting more Wly over NW half of the area. TS possible
along front, but confidence too low to mention attm.

Cooper

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 244 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday
Latest subjective surface analysis indicates a warm front along
the Arkansas, Louisiana border. This feature will move northward
overnight. An increasing southerly component to the low level
flow above the boundary will contribute to widely scattered, weak
convection across northern and central sections overnight.

A strong cold front will move from northwest to southeast across the
forecast area during the afternoon and early evening hours on
Tuesday. Developing convection along the boundary is expected to
quickly transition to a linear mode during this event. Extreme
eastern sections of the forecast area will have the greatest
severe potential, with damaging wind gusts the primary severe
threat.

Well below normal temperatures will prevail across the area
Tuesday night. Expect frost/freeze headlines will be necessary.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Sorry for the longer than usual discussion today, but we have a bit
more to discuss than we usually do.

Initially, high pressure will be over Arkansas. This will shift
eastward by Thursday, with return flow setting up out ahead of
another storm system. The storm system will arrive around Friday in
the form of an Arctic front moving through the state. Showers and a
few thunderstorms will be possible with the system.

The more interesting aspect of this will be the 1030 mb high
pressure system behind it. As of now, data is showing winds becoming
northeast in the wake of the front, as the center of the high moves
down out of the Canadian Prairies and into the northern Plains.

As the upper flow flattens out, the front will slow down. With
northeast winds advecting colder air behind the front, and some
moisture remaining into Saturday morning, it is possible that we
could see some wintry weather for a short time, mainly in northern
Arkansas late Friday night into early Saturday morning.

Models keep trending colder with surface temperatures during the
aforementioned time period, and it does appear that some areas of
the north could fall to freezing or possibly as cold as the upper
20s by sunrise Saturday morning. However, at this point it doesn't
appear that this will be a prolonged period.

Forecast soundings also show a deepening subfreezing layer in the
north, especially after midnight. Though I don't think precip would
be all snow at this point, we should see a mix of sleet and snow in
the north, with a possible rain/sleet mix toward mainly north of
Clarksville/Conway/Searcy. Further southward into central
Arkansas...maybe a pellet or two of sleet could mix in with the
rain, but I don't think we should hold our breaths at this point.

With the brief nature of any wintry precipitation, and given the
fact that temperatures will be above freezing for 24-36 hours
beforehand, I'm not anticipating any significant impacts from wintry
precipitation. Accumulations, if any, would be limited to grassy
areas/elevated surfaces.

High pressure will push down into the mid Mississippi Valley during
the day Saturday, with any lingering precipitation coming to an end.
Most areas should stay in the 50s for high temperatures on Saturday.

Late in the weekend into early next week, the front which moved
through on Friday will head back to the north, with temperatures on
Sunday and (especially) Monday back into the 60s and 70s. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible by Sunday Night/Monday, as low
pressure forms along the boundary and drags another cold front into
the region.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...COOPER

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
522 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-032230-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
522 PM CDT Mon Apr 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This evening and Tonight

Areas of drizzle and fog are expected to develop as a warm front
lifts through the area. However, no hazardous weather is
expected.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday Through Sunday

Strong southerly winds will be in place across the state on
Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph will
be possible along with gusts to 30 mph at times.

As the cold front moves through the state, strong to severe
thunderstorms may develop across roughly the southeast half of
the state during the late afternoon through the evening hours.

Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats with
any severe storms that develop. While the tornado threat is small,
it can not be discounted entirely. Behind the front, strong
northwesterly winds between 10-20 mph will be seen across much of
the area as well.

It will turn colder during the middle of the week. Subfreezing
temperatures are likely in portions of the Ozark and Ouachita
Mountains of the north and west Wednesday morning.

The end of the week into the weekend will be unsettled. Rain will
return Friday into Saturday. Thunderstorms are favored from southern
Arkansas to the Gulf Coast. At this time, chances of severe weather
appear low. After a brief period of dry weather on Sunday, chances
of showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast Sunday night.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be required on Tuesday.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.