Severe Thunderstorm Warning 321, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1244 AM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018

.UPDATE...

Updated to include the 06Z aviation discussion. Additionally,
the threat for severe thunderstorms remains across much of the
state through the remainder of tonight.

&&

.AVIATION...

TSRA continues across northwestern AR, and this activity should
overspread central/western terminals through 21/09Z. MVFR or worse
conditions, along with extreme turbulence, could be observed
in/near TS, but confidence at individual terminals too low to go
beyond VCTS mention for now. Will amend TAFs as necessary through
the morning. TS dissipates by 21/15Z with VFR expected through the
remainder of the period. Winds will be variable and gusty near TS,
then transition to westerly through the day Saturday. Speeds will
remain below 10 kts for the latter half of the period.

Cooper

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 300 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday

At the surface, a frontal boundary remains stalled over far
northern Arkansas and southern Missouri. Outflow boundaries remain
over portions of the area from morning showers/storms. In the
upper levels, a ridge 5960 meter ridge remains centered over the
Panhandles region of Texas and Oklahoma.

Over the next few days, the ridge will contract or move westward.
This will allow the front to move down into Arkansas. Additional
showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into the
overnight hours along and ahead of the boundary.

With the ridge contracting, and surface flow becoming more
northerly, temperatures will be a little cooler. Heat index values
will be a little more tolerable, with values at/above 105 mainly
over the southwest half of the area. Issued a heat advisory for
tomorrow for most areas south of the Arkansas River (excluding
Little Rock).

Any overnight storms should diminish in the morning hours as the
front sinks into the state.

LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday

The long term forecast will begin with an amplifying ridge of high
pressure over the southwestern US amidst a deepening trough
extending from the great lakes region into northern Florida.

The overall flow will remain uninterrupted due to a blocking Bermuda
High through Tuesday. At which point a cutoff low is expected to
form, and begin retrograding towards Louisiana through mid to late
week. This will change north/northwesterly flow into northeasterly
flow aloft, and will switch northerly surface winds around to the
south. This change in wind direction in the low levels will allow
for moisture advection and increased rain chances, especially across
southern and eastern portions of the state late next week.

Meanwhile, the ridge of high pressure will move westward towards the
desert southwest, which will allow several cold fronts associated
with the unsettled weather pattern to move through mid to late week.
Therefore, temperatures will be slightly cooler next week and near
seasonal averages.

FIRE WEATHER...
No significant fire weather issues are expected in the next seven
days. Minimum humidity will largely remain above 40 percent.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, mainly
during the afternoons and evenings.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
FOR Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleveland-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Garland-
Grant-Hot Spring-Jefferson-Lincoln-Logan-Montgomery-Ouachita-
Perry-Pike-Polk-Saline-Scott-Yell.

&&

Aviation...COOPER

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
637 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-211100-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
637 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Heat index values will remain high early this evening...with many
areas seeing heat index values of 105 to just over 115. Expect
heat index values to cool off later this evening.

Some strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
evening...with the best chances across the north and northeast
sections of the area. Damaging winds and large hail will be the
primary threats expected...with locally heavy rainfall also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday Through Thursday

The chance for thunderstorms will diminish over the weekend...with
potential for some thunderstorms returning for Tuesday through
Thursday of next week.

Heat index values will remain a concern through much of the
period as well. Most locations will see heat index values in the
upper 90s to around 105 degrees. Some areas may see heat index
values exceed 105 degrees during the afternoon and evening hours.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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