Severe Thunderstorm Warning 296, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
632 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

Generally VFR conditions will be seen through this TAF period.
Some SHRA/TSRA may be seen across the NRN terminals this
evening...with VCTS mentioned. Potential for SHRA/TSRA will be
less...but still possible. Some patchy fog may also be seen
overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 300 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday

At the surface, a frontal boundary remains stalled over far
northern Arkansas and southern Missouri. Outflow boundaries remain
over portions of the area from morning showers/storms. In the
upper levels, a ridge 5960 meter ridge remains centered over the
Panhandles region of Texas and Oklahoma.

Over the next few days, the ridge will contract or move westward.
This will allow the front to move down into Arkansas. Additional
showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into the
overnight hours along and ahead of the boundary.

With the ridge contracting, and surface flow becoming more
northerly, temperatures will be a little cooler. Heat index values
will be a little more tolerable, with values at/above 105 mainly
over the southwest half of the area. Issued a heat advisory for
tomorrow for most areas south of the Arkansas River (excluding
Little Rock).

Any overnight storms should diminish in the morning hours as the
front sinks into the state.

LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday

The long term forecast will begin with an amplifying ridge of high
pressure over the southwestern US amidst a deepening trough
extending from the great lakes region into northern Florida.

The overall flow will remain uninterrupted due to a blocking Bermuda
High through Tuesday. At which point a cutoff low is expected to
form, and begin retrograding towards Louisiana through mid to late
week. This will change north/northwesterly flow into northeasterly
flow aloft, and will switch northerly surface winds around to the
south. This change in wind direction in the low levels will allow
for moisture advection and increased rain chances, especially across
southern and eastern portions of the state late next week.

Meanwhile, the ridge of high pressure will move westward towards the
desert southwest, which will allow several cold fronts associated
with the unsettled weather pattern to move through mid to late week.
Therefore, temperatures will be slightly cooler next week and near
seasonal averages.

FIRE WEATHER...
No significant fire weather issues are expected in the next seven
days. Minimum humidity will largely remain above 40 percent.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, mainly
during the afternoons and evenings.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR Baxter-Boone-
Cleburne-Fulton-Independence-Izard-Marion-Newton-Searcy-Sharp-
Stone-Van Buren.

Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-Drew-
Faulkner-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-
Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Monroe-Montgomery-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-
Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-White-Woodruff-Yell.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Saturday FOR Bradley-Calhoun-
Clark-Cleveland-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-
Jefferson-Lincoln-Logan-Montgomery-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-
Saline-Scott-Yell.

&&

Aviation...62

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
637 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-211100-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
637 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Heat index values will remain high early this evening...with many
areas seeing heat index values of 105 to just over 115. Expect
heat index values to cool off later this evening.

Some strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
evening...with the best chances across the north and northeast
sections of the area. Damaging winds and large hail will be the
primary threats expected...with locally heavy rainfall also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday Through Thursday

The chance for thunderstorms will diminish over the weekend...with
potential for some thunderstorms returning for Tuesday through
Thursday of next week.

Heat index values will remain a concern through much of the
period as well. Most locations will see heat index values in the
upper 90s to around 105 degrees. Some areas may see heat index
values exceed 105 degrees during the afternoon and evening hours.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
802 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE TIMBER LAKE MANOR  36.27N  92.19W
07/19/2018                   BAXTER             AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SEVERAL LARGE TREE LIMBS WERE SNAPPED OFF. AN
            UNANCHORED BOAT SUSTAINED SOME MINOR DAMAGE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1800207

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
846 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018

ARZ023-024-032-033-210230-
White AR-Van Buren AR-Faulkner AR-Cleburne AR-
846 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN VAN BUREN...
SOUTHWESTERN CLEBURNE...NORTHEASTERN FAULKNER AND SOUTHERN WHITE
COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 846 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Gravel Hill to near Choctaw. Movement was east
at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Searcy...                         Heber Springs...
Clinton...                        Fairfield Bay...
Beebe...                          Kensett...
Greers Ferry...                   Quitman...
Higginson...                      Rose Bud...
Shirley...                        Mount Vernon...
Higden...                         Fairfield Bay Marina...
Crosby...                         Gravel Hill...
Fairbanks...                      Sugar Loaf Recreation Area...
McRae...                          Choctaw...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3505 9191 3544 9248 3546 9248 3546 9250
      3561 9273 3571 9240 3512 9150
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 290DEG 28KT 3525 9201 3555 9238

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