Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
325 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.Near Term...Late This Afternoon and Tonight

Cold fnt was to the S of the FA this aftn, situated over Nrn LA.
Copious amounts of moisture/lift cont to advect acrs the region,
resulting in widespread rain over much the FA. Temps held fairly
steady with 30s over N AR, with 40s/lower 50s elsewhere.

Main concern thru tngt wl be the contd rain chances, and threat of
flooding. Radar data cont to suggest mainly light to moderate rain
wl cont ovr much of the area tngt. Conds have turned more to an
areal flood threat, although flash flooding potential still exists.
Thus, have kept flood watch in place for primarily the SE half of
the area into Thu mrng.

With sfc temps hovering close to freezing, cannot rule out some
light freezing rain this evening over part of N-Central AR. Still
not expecting any sig ice accumulation, so have opted not to issue
any headlines. Wl cont to monitor trends this evening though.
&&

.Short Term...Thursday Through Saturday

A nearly stationary boundary located just to the south and southeast
of the forecast area is expected to lift slowly to the north during
this period. The focus for the heaviest rainfall is expected to also
shift northward during this period.

Another round for a focused excessive rainfall threat appears for
late Thursday into Friday evening, as another wave of southwesterly
flow energy approaches the mid south.
&&

.Long Term...Saturday Night Through Wednesday

Southwest flow will continue over Arkansas Saturday night as an
upper low moves through the Plains. The southwest flow aloft will
continue over Arkansas Sunday, with surface high pressure in place,
but drier air will enter the area and continue into Monday. Moisture
will return Tuesday night into Wednesday and rain chances will
increase. Temperatures will remain near normal through the period.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch through late tonight FOR Clark-Cleburne-Dallas-Faulkner-
Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Jackson-Lonoke-Montgomery-
Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-White-Woodruff.

Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Arkansas-Bradley-Calhoun-
Cleveland-Desha-Drew-Jefferson-Lincoln-Monroe.

Near Term...44 / Short Term...55 / Long Term...51

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
245 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-221100-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
245 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight

Flood and flash flood watches remain in effect for much of Arkansas.
Areas of rain, heavy at times, and isolated thunderstorms will
continue to affect much of central and southern Arkansas, while
lowering over northern Arkansas. River levels are coming up and
areas of flooding have been reported. Tonight, most of the rain will
be seen over southern and the eastern half of Arkansas.
Precipitation will tend to taper off or become more spotty in the
northwest, also where temperatures will be around freezing some
spotty winter precipitation will be possible. No accumulations are
expected.

In much of the south and east, rain will continue tonight, and be
heavy at times. The threat for flooding will continue. Two to five
plus inches of rain have fallen over much of Arkansas, and one to
two more inches of rain may be seen tonight through Thursday
morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday

Some rainfall will linger through the morning hours Thursday, mainly
across southeastern portions of the area. Any rain that falls would
likely only worsen expected flooding conditions.

Additional heavy rainfall will return to the forecast by late
Thursday through Sunday morning as the aforementioned front moves
back to the north over the region. Rainfall totals across the state
from Thursday through Sunday morning will likely be in the two to
four inch range for many areas. As a result, the threat for
widespread river and flash flooding will continue to increase
throughout the week and into the weekend.

Severe weather may be possible on Saturday as an upper level storm
system approaches from the west. Even with well above normal
temperatures expected and abundant moisture in place, certain
atmospheric conditions appear to limit the severe weather threat. Be
sure to monitor the latest forecast and outlooks for more
information regarding this severe weather chance.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Flooding will continue to be a concern across Arkansas, and any
significant reports are requested. Otherwise, due to a low severe
weather concern, spotter activation is not anticipated through
Friday. If there are severe storms, they appear most likely this
weekend, and spotter activation may be required.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

46/67/59

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1031 AM CST WED FEB 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HOT SPRINGS             34.50N 93.05W
02/21/2018  M4.60 INCH       GARLAND            AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

            SINCE 7 PM 2/20/18 4.60 INCHES FELL ON CARPENTER DAM RD.
            AT HOT SPRINGS

&&

51

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1119 AM CST WED FEB 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N MARCHE              34.87N  92.36W
02/21/2018                   PULASKI            AR   NEWSPAPER

            STUDENTS RESCUED FROM SCHOOL BUS THAT DROVE OFF FLOODED
            ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1800062

CROSS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1227 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

ARZ003>005-012>014-023-212200-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Van Buren-
Including the cities of Harrison, Omaha, Lead Hill, Bull Shoals,
Flippin, Yellville, Summit, Mountain Home, Norfork, Gassville,
Jasper, Western Grove, Deer, Marshall, Leslie, Gilbert,
Mountain View, Fox, Timbo, Allison, Fairfield Bay, Clinton,
Bee Branch, and Damascus
1227 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

...Light Freezing Rain Expected This Afternoon...

Light freezing rain will continue this afternoon across portions
of north central Arkansas. With temperatures hovering close to or
just below the freezing mark, light ice accumulation will be
possible.

Other than a few icy patches on bridges and overpasses, widespread
travel problems are not expected. There may also be a minor glaze
of ice on elevated objects, especially in the higher elevations.

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1259 PM CST WED FEB 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 AM     FLOOD            GLENWOOD                34.33N 93.55W
02/21/2018                   PIKE               AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

            WATER WAS OVER THE ROAD NEAR GLENWOOD, OVER A LOW WATER
            CROSSING BRIDGE.

&&

51

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
345 PM CST WED FEB 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     FLOOD            GLENWOOD                34.33N 93.55W
02/21/2018                   PIKE               AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

            WATER WAS OVER THE ROAD NEAR GLENWOOD, OVER A LOW WATER
            CROSSING BRIDGE.

&&
CORRECTED TIME

57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
415 PM CST WED FEB 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 PM     FLOOD            BAUXITE                 34.56N  92.52W
02/21/2018                   SALINE             AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            STORM SPOTTER REPORTS WATER FROM HURRICANE CREEK IS
            COVERING SARDIS ROAD NEAR BAUXITE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1800063

COOPER