Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1145 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.AVIATION...
Widespread MVFR conditions with patchy IFR conditions will be seen
today, with continued rain, showers and a few thunderstorms in the
south. The area of rain will continue to move slowly east through
the day, while some ceilings will lift to VFR a bit over northern
AR, while staying mainly MVFR with patchy IFR over central to
southern AR. Winds will be north to northeast at 5 to 15 mph with
some gusts to around 20 mph. (59)

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night
Rain was slowly building to the southeast early this morning, and
gradually tapering off in northwest Arkansas. It was becoming
progressively colder. In fact, readings were around freezing in
portions of Boone and Newton Counties, with some freezing rain
reported. Given that ice amounts will be spotty/light, opted to
issue a Special Weather Statement to address the possibility
of slick spots on bridges/overpasses.

Otherwise, this heavy rain event will now shift into the southeast
half of the state today/tonight. Precipitation will be
along/north of a cold front that will stall in far southeast
Arkansas or northern Louisiana. It appears the south/east will get
another two to four inches of liquid, with a Flood Watch for that
part of the region. The watch farther north/west will expire this
morning.

Heavy rain may linger in the southeast Thursday morning, and that
may be followed by a brief lull. The front will then push back to
the north, with a new round of showers/isolated thunderstorms
across the north/west Thursday night. A Flood Watch may be
needed as rain could become excessive.

Temperatures through the near term will not vary much. Readings
will generally be below average during the daytime, and above
average at night.

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
Unfortunately, a similar overall pattern will be in place at the
start of the long term portion of the forecast which will provide
continued chances for rain and flooding across the state. Upper
ridge will be parked off the southeast Atlantic Coast with a large
trough tracking across the Rockies toward the Northern Plains.
Here locally, this will continue to provide southwesterly flow and
abundant moisture to the state. Any disturbance that traverses
the flow will help initiate showers and thunderstorms.

By Saturday, a more robust shortwave will round the base of the
trough and make its way northeast across the Southern Plains.
Temperatures at the surface will be in the 60s and 70s, with
dewpoints in the 60s for much of the area as well. 00z model
guidance suggests some instability in place across the state with
50kts of shear as well. Low level jet will likely ramp up across
eastern parts of the state during the afternoon hours. With the
persistent ridging in place across the southeast, the strength and
location of the approaching shortwave is in question and will
likely determine any true threat for severe weather on Saturday.
Stay tuned for updates, plenty of time for things to change.

A cold front will make its way through the state Saturday
night into Sunday, providing cooler, near normal temperatures
to the area. Dry weather may be in place from Sunday into the early
part of next week. But, it definitely doesn't look like a quiet (dry)
period ahead.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     44  38  52  49 / 100  90  40  80
Camden AR         60  47  58  57 / 100 100  60  60
Harrison AR       34  34  50  46 /  50  50  40  90
Hot Springs AR    52  43  54  52 / 100  90  50  80
Little Rock   AR  52  43  53  52 / 100 100  50  80
Monticello AR     62  48  60  59 / 100 100  80  40
Mount Ida AR      48  43  55  52 / 100  80  50  80
Mountain Home AR  36  34  51  47 /  60  60  40  90
Newport AR        47  39  52  51 / 100  90  40  80
Pine Bluff AR     57  45  56  54 / 100 100  70  60
Russellville AR   45  40  53  50 /  80  70  40  90
Searcy AR         50  41  52  51 / 100  90  50  80
Stuttgart AR      54  43  54  54 / 100 100  60  60
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch through late tonight FOR Clark-Cleburne-Dallas-
Faulkner-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Jackson-Lonoke-
Montgomery-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-White-
Woodruff.

Flood Watch until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR Baxter-Boone-
Conway-Fulton-Izard-Johnson-Logan-Marion-Newton-Pope-Scott-
Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-Yell.

Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Arkansas-Bradley-
Calhoun-Cleveland-Desha-Drew-Jefferson-Lincoln-Monroe.
&&

Short Term...46 / Long Term...67

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
245 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-221100-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
245 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight

Flood and flash flood watches remain in effect for much of Arkansas.
Areas of rain, heavy at times, and isolated thunderstorms will
continue to affect much of central and southern Arkansas, while
lowering over northern Arkansas. River levels are coming up and
areas of flooding have been reported. Tonight, most of the rain will
be seen over southern and the eastern half of Arkansas.
Precipitation will tend to taper off or become more spotty in the
northwest, also where temperatures will be around freezing some
spotty winter precipitation will be possible. No accumulations are
expected.

In much of the south and east, rain will continue tonight, and be
heavy at times. The threat for flooding will continue. Two to five
plus inches of rain have fallen over much of Arkansas, and one to
two more inches of rain may be seen tonight through Thursday
morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday

Some rainfall will linger through the morning hours Thursday, mainly
across southeastern portions of the area. Any rain that falls would
likely only worsen expected flooding conditions.

Additional heavy rainfall will return to the forecast by late
Thursday through Sunday morning as the aforementioned front moves
back to the north over the region. Rainfall totals across the state
from Thursday through Sunday morning will likely be in the two to
four inch range for many areas. As a result, the threat for
widespread river and flash flooding will continue to increase
throughout the week and into the weekend.

Severe weather may be possible on Saturday as an upper level storm
system approaches from the west. Even with well above normal
temperatures expected and abundant moisture in place, certain
atmospheric conditions appear to limit the severe weather threat. Be
sure to monitor the latest forecast and outlooks for more
information regarding this severe weather chance.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Flooding will continue to be a concern across Arkansas, and any
significant reports are requested. Otherwise, due to a low severe
weather concern, spotter activation is not anticipated through
Friday. If there are severe storms, they appear most likely this
weekend, and spotter activation may be required.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

46/67/59

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
956 AM CST WED FEB 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WEST LITTLE ROCK        34.77N 92.41W
02/21/2018  M5.00 INCH       PULASKI            AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

            HEAVY RAIN BROUGHT 5 INCHES OF RAIN AS OF 9 AM TO WEST
            LITTLE ROCK BEHIND KROGER ON CHENAL.

&&

51

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
959 AM CST WED FEB 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 AM     FLASH FLOOD      AVILLA                  34.68N  92.58W
02/21/2018                   SALINE             AR   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            MULTIPLE ROADS ARE FLOODED WITH WATER RUNNING OVER THEM
            IN SEARCY COUNTY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1800060

CROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1031 AM CST WED FEB 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HOT SPRINGS             34.50N 93.05W
02/21/2018  M4.60 INCH       GARLAND            AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

            SINCE 7 PM 2/20/18 4.60 INCHES FELL ON CARPENTER DAM RD.
            AT HOT SPRINGS

&&

51

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1119 AM CST WED FEB 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N MARCHE              34.87N  92.36W
02/21/2018                   PULASKI            AR   NEWSPAPER

            STUDENTS RESCUED FROM SCHOOL BUS THAT DROVE OFF FLOODED
            ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK1800062

CROSS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1227 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

ARZ003>005-012>014-023-212200-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Van Buren-
Including the cities of Harrison, Omaha, Lead Hill, Bull Shoals,
Flippin, Yellville, Summit, Mountain Home, Norfork, Gassville,
Jasper, Western Grove, Deer, Marshall, Leslie, Gilbert,
Mountain View, Fox, Timbo, Allison, Fairfield Bay, Clinton,
Bee Branch, and Damascus
1227 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

...Light Freezing Rain Expected This Afternoon...

Light freezing rain will continue this afternoon across portions
of north central Arkansas. With temperatures hovering close to or
just below the freezing mark, light ice accumulation will be
possible.

Other than a few icy patches on bridges and overpasses, widespread
travel problems are not expected. There may also be a minor glaze
of ice on elevated objects, especially in the higher elevations.

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1259 PM CST WED FEB 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 AM     FLOOD            GLENWOOD                34.33N 93.55W
02/21/2018                   PIKE               AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

            WATER WAS OVER THE ROAD NEAR GLENWOOD, OVER A LOW WATER
            CROSSING BRIDGE.

&&

51