Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
605 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.AVIATION...
Widespread MVFR conditions/some IFR conditions will be noted
through tonight with areas of rain and low clouds in the
forecast. There will be isolated thunderstorms in southeast
Arkansas. Winds will be north/northeast at 6 to 12 mph, with
gusts from 16 to 20 mph in places. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night
Rain was slowly building to the southeast early this morning, and
gradually tapering off in northwest Arkansas. It was becoming
progressively colder. In fact, readings were around freezing in
portions of Boone and Newton Counties, with some freezing rain
reported. Given that ice amounts will be spotty/light, opted to
issue a Special Weather Statement to address the possibility
of slick spots on bridges/overpasses.

Otherwise, this heavy rain event will now shift into the southeast
half of the state today/tonight. Precipitation will be
along/north of a cold front that will stall in far southeast
Arkansas or northern Louisiana. It appears the south/east will get
another two to four inches of liquid, with a Flood Watch for that
part of the region. The watch farther north/west will expire this
morning.

Heavy rain may linger in the southeast Thursday morning, and that
may be followed by a brief lull. The front will then push back to
the north, with a new round of showers/isolated thunderstorms
across the north/west Thursday night. A Flood Watch may be
needed as rain could become excessive.

Temperatures through the near term will not vary much. Readings
will generally be below average during the daytime, and above
average at night.
&&

.LONG TERM...Friday Through Wednesday
Unfortunately, a similar overall pattern will be in place at the
start of the long term portion of the forecast which will provide
continued chances for rain and flooding across the state. Upper
ridge will be parked off the southeast Atlantic Coast with a large
trough tracking across the Rockies toward the Northern Plains.
Here locally, this will continue to provide southwesterly flow and
abundant moisture to the state. Any disturbance that traverses
the flow will help initiate showers and thunderstorms.

By Saturday, a more robust shortwave will round the base of the
trough and make its way northeast across the Southern Plains.
Temperatures at the surface will be in the 60s and 70s, with
dewpoints in the 60s for much of the area as well. 00z model
guidance suggests some instability in place across the state with
50kts of shear as well. Low level jet will likely ramp up across
eastern parts of the state during the afternoon hours. With the
persistent ridging in place across the southeast, the strength and
location of the approaching shortwave is in question and will
likely determine any true threat for severe weather on Saturday.
Stay tuned for updates, plenty of time for things to change.

A cold front will make its way through the state Saturday
night into Sunday, providing cooler, near normal temperatures
to the area. Dry weather may be in place from Sunday into the early
part of next week. But, it definitely doesn't look like a quiet (dry)
period ahead.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     44  38  52  49 / 100  90  40  80
Camden AR         60  47  58  57 / 100 100  60  60
Harrison AR       34  34  50  46 /  50  50  40  90
Hot Springs AR    52  43  54  52 / 100  90  50  80
Little Rock   AR  52  43  53  52 / 100 100  50  80
Monticello AR     62  48  60  59 / 100 100  80  40
Mount Ida AR      48  43  55  52 / 100  80  50  80
Mountain Home AR  36  34  51  47 /  60  60  40  90
Newport AR        47  39  52  51 / 100  90  40  80
Pine Bluff AR     57  45  56  54 / 100 100  70  60
Russellville AR   45  40  53  50 /  80  70  40  90
Searcy AR         50  41  52  51 / 100  90  50  80
Stuttgart AR      54  43  54  54 / 100 100  60  60
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch through late tonight FOR Clark-Cleburne-Dallas-
Faulkner-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Jackson-Lonoke-
Montgomery-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-White-
Woodruff.

Flood Watch until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR Baxter-Boone-
Conway-Fulton-Izard-Johnson-Logan-Marion-Newton-Pope-Scott-
Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-Yell.

Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Arkansas-Bradley-
Calhoun-Cleveland-Desha-Drew-Jefferson-Lincoln-Monroe.
&&

Short Term...46 / Long Term...67

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
500 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-221100-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
500 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Areas of rain and isolated thunderstorms will gradually build into
the southeast half of Arkansas today and tonight. This will be along
and north of a cold front that will eventually stall in northern
Louisiana.  Precipitation will tend to taper off or become more
spotty in the northwest. There could be a brief period of freezing
rain in the far northwest this morning.

In much of the south and east, rain will become heavy to possibly
excessive through tonight. Two to four inches of liquid is in the
forecast, with locally higher amounts. This includes areas from
Mena, Conway, and Newport to the southeast.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday

Some rainfall will linger through the morning hours Thursday, mainly
across southeastern portions of the area. Any rain that falls would
likely only worsen expected flooding conditions.

Additional heavy rainfall will return to the forecast by late
Thursday through Sunday morning as the aforementioned front moves
back to the north over the region. Rainfall totals across the state
from Thursday through Sunday morning will likely be in the two to
four inch range for many areas. As a result, the threat for
widespread river and flash flooding will continue to increase
throughout the week and into the weekend.

Severe weather may be possible on Saturday as an upper level storm
system approaches from the west. Even with well above normal
temperatures expected and abundant moisture in place, certain
atmospheric conditions appear to limit the severe weather threat. Be
sure to monitor the latest forecast/outlooks for more information
regarding these severe weather chances.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Due to a low severe weather concern, spotter activation is not
anticipated through Friday. If there are severe storms, they appear
most likely this weekend, and spotter activation may be required.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

46/67

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
326 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

ARZ003-012-211600-
Boone-Newton-
Including the cities of Harrison, Omaha, Lead Hill, Jasper,
Western Grove, and Deer
326 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

...Light Freezing Rain Possible This Morning...

Rain will gradually taper off from the northwest this morning. At
the same time, temperatures will continue to slowly drop, with
subfreezing readings in places. Given this, there will likely
be a period of freezing rain.

Other than a few icy patches on bridges and overpasses, widespread
travel problems are not expected. There may also be a minor glaze
of ice on elevated objects.

46