Severe Thunderstorm Warning 322, NWS Louisville, KY

970 
WWUS53 KLMK 160046
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
846 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

KYC029-093-111-123-163-179-160055-
/O.CAN.KLMK.SV.W.0322.000000T0000Z-180816T0100Z/
Nelson KY-Meade KY-Larue KY-Jefferson KY-Hardin KY-Bullitt KY-
846 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN NELSON...SOUTHEASTERN
MEADE...NORTHWESTERN LARUE...SOUTHERN JEFFERSON...HARDIN AND BULLITT
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are
still possible with these thunderstorms.

LAT...LON 3761 8577 3761 8626 3796 8603 3801 8597
      3801 8595 3805 8592 3822 8570 3822 8541
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 262DEG 35KT 3823 8539 3769 8577 

$$

JBS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
817 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

...Get your umbrellas ready...very wet period ahead...

Well...Lots of clouds keeping temps down today with upper low over
Show Me State. Ahead of this system, there is a warm sector with dew
points in the lower 70s. Currently, there is scattered shra and
isolated tsra over S IN while we await for new convective
development from NW TN to SW KY. This will spread into our area late
this afternoon from strong sfc heating. Strong warm air advection
pattern is setting up later today with low level jet of 30-40 kts.
This will set up excellent efficient isentropic lift across area
after 00z especially late evening into overnight. This will yield a
high POP widespread rain event with isolated tsra with locally heavy
rainfall, especially west of I-65.

PWATs will increase to 1.75 to as high as 1.9 inches with the
isentropic lift, so there will be pockets of heavy rain. The ground
is fairly dry so not even thinking of any headlines at this
juncture. However, locally embedded high efficiency convection could
cause some isolated issues. The Weather Story messaging will keep
talking about potential for locally heavy rainfall.

High temp Thursday will be below normal with so much cloud cover.
Lower 80s seems prudent especially west of I-65.

.Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

...Multiple episodes of showers and storms to continue through the
extended period, with a possible break on Sunday...

Thursday night and Friday...

As an initial shortwave trough aloft moves to our east Thursday
night, a deeper trough will swing southeast through the mid and
upper MS Valley. Residual showers and storms associated with the
initial trough may move away or become fewer in number Friday
evening. However, forcing ahead of the approaching trough combined
with a continued moist air mass and suggestion of steepening mid-
level lapse rates should allow for additional convection to form
somewhere over the lower OH Valley (probably initially west of our
area), then move east into at least parts of central KY and south-
central IN late Thursday night/Friday morning. This activity could
last into the daytime Friday, with any outflow boundaries dictating
where additional cells may develop Friday afternoon and evening.
These storms should produce high rainfall rates, so coupled with
earlier rains and if cells repeat over the same areas, localized
flood concerns could occur. Highs Friday will be in the lower and
mid 80s, depending on amount of cloud cover.

Friday night through Sunday...

During this period, the trough aloft will move east and weaken but
may be unable to create a "clean sweep" of the moisture and precip
chances to our east. A weak surface boundary will work its way
slowly south across the lower OH Valley Friday night and Saturday.
Model soundings show that at least marginal to perhaps moderate
instability will remain over much of the forecast area through at
least Saturday. While areal coverage of precip will diminish,
isolated to scattered showers and storms are still possible during
the forecast period, especially over central KY. The frontal
location suggests that precip chances may end over south-central IN
Saturday night and Sunday, but with still a chance for isolated
cells Sunday over central KY. Expect high temps Saturday and Sunday
to range through the 80s.

Monday through Wednesday...

Yet another significant shortwave is forecast to dig southeast
across the central U.S. Monday with southwest flow aloft developing
over the OH Valley. Besides renewed instability, this system
actually could have some deep-layered shear associated with it for
some strong convection, at least to our west over parts of the mid
MS and lower OH Valleys on Monday. Storms would then work into our
forecast area late Monday/Monday night and could linger or redevelop
under the upper trough on Tuesday. If the current forecast holds,
drier, less humid air would spread into our area Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 805 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

The main TAF concern will be multiple rounds of showers and storms
as multiple upper level disturbances pass through the region ahead
of an upper trough. SDF will be affected within the next hour with
strong t-storms with gusts to 50+ mph possible and IFR conditions.
After this storm passes SDF should see mainly showers with a few
rumbles of thunder for the rest of the night like HNB.  Showers and
storms will be slow to arrive at BWG/LEX late tonight into tomorrow
morning.  Look for more rounds of showers and storms to affect all
TAF sites throughout the day tomorrow.  In addition, SSW winds of 8-
12kts will gust to around 18-22 kts tomorrow afternoon/evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...JDG
Long Term....TWF
Aviation...AMS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
348 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-162000-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
348 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018 /248 PM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Ahead of a low pressure center with ample moisture, scattered to
numerous thunderstorms are expected tonight across the area,
especially over south-central Indiana and north-central and west-
central Kentucky. The storms will produce heavy rainfall, and
isolated storms through this evening could also cause locally strong
wind gusts. Expect cloud-to-ground lightning as well. Local flooding
may occur if storms move over the same locations tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast at times from Thursday
through Friday night as upper-level weather disturbances move slowly
across the Ohio Valley. Heavy rainfall will accompany the storms,
and locally strong wind gusts are again possible Thursday afternoon
over parts of central Kentucky. If storms develop and move over the
same locations, flooding could occur during this time period. Storms
will become more isolated on Saturday.

Another approaching storm system will bring more thunderstorms to
the area Monday afternoon and/or night. Some of those storms could
produce strong wind gusts and more heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report any higher rainfall amounts, flooding, and
strong wind gusts over the next several days.

TWF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
707 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SSW FRENCH LICK       38.51N 86.64W
08/15/2018  M67 MPH          ORANGE             IN   ASOS

            FRENCH LICK ASOS.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
717 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE HUNTINGBURG        38.29N 86.95W
08/15/2018                   DUBOIS             IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINE DOWN.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
804 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW GLEN DEAN         37.69N 86.58W
08/15/2018                   BRECKINRIDGE       KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 261 AND OVER MUCH
            OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
806 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW WEBSTER           37.93N 86.36W
08/15/2018                   BRECKINRIDGE       KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER POLE DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 477.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
813 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW BRIDGEPORT        38.16N 85.95W
08/15/2018                   HARRISON           IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 11 AT MORGAN LANE.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
815 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S NEW SALISBURY       38.29N 86.10W
08/15/2018                   HARRISON           IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN AT THE 6300 BLOCK OF CIRCLE ROAD.

&&

MRC