Flash Flood Warning 47, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
710 AM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Today - Expect multiple rounds of rain and storms flowing up the
Ohio River Valley.

Models haven't had the best handle on timing, but they agree for the
most part on location. Moisture continues to be carried up the
Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys by the low level jet. Southern
Indiana has moisture pooling overhead with precipitable water values
over 2". This low level flow sits between a surface high sitting
over western North Carolina and a surface low over northern
Missouri. This pattern won't change much today.

This afternoon, precipitable water values in central Kentucky begin
to go over 2". With the added moisture and warm temperatures pushing
temperatures to the the convective temperature, more showers and
thunderstorms will form and cause heavy rain and gusty winds. Heavy
rainfall is expected and could cause some isolated problems with
localized flooding and ponding on surfaces with poor drainage.

Temperatures today are expected to be in the mid 80s for most with
upper 80s in south-central Kentucky.

Tonight - Expect more rain with areas further south and east getting
in on the action.

In the mid-levels, a closed low over South Dakota will dive
southeast towards northern Indiana tonight. This will bring a
shortwave on a shallow mid-level trough. This shortwave will help to
initiated move rain during the overnight hours. It will likely
expand rain showers further south and east in central and eastern
Kentucky.

Temperatures will stay mild with mid 70s in south-central Kentucky
and in the low 70s everywhere else.

.Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

...Multiple episodes of showers and storms to continue through the
extended period, with a possible break on Sunday...

Upper low along the northern IL/IN border Friday morning will push
to Lake Erie later in the day. Underneath it though, a weaker
shortwave should get to the Wabash at the same time. These two
features and the moist airmass in place will mean continued
excellent rain chances along with some flood potential. Forcing
aloft later in the day could be in the right rear quad of a jet
associated with the first upper low.

The second upper feature takes its time exiting the area and it
leaves in its wake a quasi-zonal flow that keeps enough moisture in
the area for rain chances through Saturday. The CMC/Euro both argue
for a drying out period Sunday, whereas the GFS continues its
bullish precip ways in the extended. Will be optimistic here and
lean toward the former consensus.

Monday and Tuesday still look like the days for the next front to
try and cross the region slowly. Timing varies between models, but
consensus shows us drying out. The usually drier Euro actually
brings one more wave of precip through here Wednesday, behind the
cold front...as another wave crosses the region. Blended model
guidance argues for a dry period here, so have gone that way.

&&

.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 705 AM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the TAF period
causing impacts at all TAF sites. Showers will come in waves all day
with periods of heavy rain causing reduced visibilities and
ceilings. Winds are out of the south with gusts to around 20-25
knots. Storms will cause winds to be gusty and vary in direction.
Confidence in timing of storms is low, so TAFs are likely to be
updated through the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ this afternoon for
     INZ077>079-084-089>092.

KY...Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ this afternoon for
     KYZ023>025-028>033.

&&

Short Term...KDW
Long Term...RJS
Aviation...KDW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
514 AM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

INZ076-083-KYZ026-027-034>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
082-170915-
Orange-Dubois-Ohio-Grayson-Shelby-Franklin-Scott-Harrison-Spencer-
Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Washington-Mercer-
Jessamine-Clark-Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-
Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-
Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Jasper, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville,
Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown,
Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville,
Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville,
Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford,
Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville,
Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville,
and Albany
514 AM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018 /414 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Expect showers and scattered to numerous thunderstorms today and
tonight as an upper-level weather disturbance crosses the region.
Heavy rainfall will accompany these storms, and locally strong wind
gusts are possible this afternoon and evening. If storms develop and
move over the same locations, flooding could occur during this time
period.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue at least to Friday
night as additional upper-level weather disturbances move slowly
across the Ohio Valley. Localized flood concerns are possible with
areas that see multiple storms over the next couple of days. Storms
will become more isolated on Saturday.

Another approaching storm system will bring more thunderstorms to
the area Monday afternoon and/or night. Some of those storms could
produce strong wind gusts and more heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report any higher rainfall amounts, flooding, and
strong wind gusts over the next several days.

INZ077>079-084-089>092-KYZ023>025-028>033-170915-
Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-Floyd-Clark-
Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Hardin-Bullitt-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-
Including the cities of Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, English,
Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville,
Louisville, La Grange, Bedford, Milton, and New Castle
514 AM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018 /414 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Expect showers and scattered to numerous thunderstorms today and
tonight as an upper-level weather disturbance crosses the region.
Heavy rainfall will accompany these storms, and locally strong wind
gusts are possible this afternoon and evening. If storms develop and
move over the same locations, flash flooding is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue at least to Friday
night as additional upper-level weather disturbances move slowly
across the Ohio Valley. Localized flood concerns are possible with
areas that see multiple storms over the next couple of days. Storms
will become more isolated on Saturday.

Another approaching storm system will bring more thunderstorms to
the area Monday afternoon and/or night. Some of those storms could
produce strong wind gusts and more heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report any higher rainfall amounts, flooding, and
strong wind gusts over the next several days.

KDW/RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
648 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 S FERN CREEK          38.12N 85.59W
08/16/2018  M2.11 INCH       JEFFERSON          KY   MESONET

            MEASURED AT THE LOUISVILLE MSD CEDAR CREEK
            WQTC GAUGE. TOTAL SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
649 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FERN CREEK              38.17N 85.60W
08/16/2018  M2.54 INCH       JEFFERSON          KY   AMATEUR RADIO

            6-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL AT STATION E9362.

&&

RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
728 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NW LYNDON             38.29N 85.61W
08/16/2018  M2.32 INCH       JEFFERSON          KY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION KY-JF-2, 2 NW LYNDON.

&&

CG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
731 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W FLOYDS KNOBS        38.32N 85.90W
08/16/2018  M2.20 INCH       FLOYD              IN   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION IN-FD-22, 1 W FLOYDS KNOBS.

&&

CG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
941 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSW HIGHVIEW          38.11N 85.65W
08/16/2018  E2.85 INCH       JEFFERSON          KY   PUBLIC

            2.85 INCHES FROM MIDNIGHT TO 8 AM...24 HOUR
            TOTAL 3.49. REPORTED AT NWS OFFICE 6201
            THEILER LN LOUISVILLE KY.

&&

CG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
948 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NNW SMITHS GROVE      37.09N 86.23W
08/16/2018                   WARREN             KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            6-8 INCHES OF FLOWING WATER ACROSS HWY 101
            AND 31W.

&&

JMB