Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
634 AM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

The strong thunderstorm complex across the western Sandhills is
expected to move south-southeast this morning affecting areas
between North Platte and Big Springs with 40-50 mph winds and very
heavy rainfall. The rapid refresh models missed this one. Once the
low level jet weakens 13z-14z the cluster should weaken near or
south of Interstate 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

The SPC moisture transport suggests a healthy MCS could be underway.
The RAP model suggest 800-850mb moisture transport will continue
until 14z and then weaken. The HRRR and HREF show the MCS moving
east southeast through ncntl Neb this morning. A cold front will
drop south in the wake of the system this afternoon, perhaps
providing some focus for new thunderstorm development. Note,
satellite and radar show disturbances back across nrn WY which could
interact with the front this afternoon. By early evening the cold
front should be south and east of the forecast area with
thunderstorm chances just across swrn and eastern portions
of north central Nebraska.

SPC is giving the front a wide berth for severe weather potential
but noted there is uncertainty in the forecast. The model consensus
indicates 1.5 inches of precipitable water at North Platte peaking
at 22z and then falling. Both the RAP and HRRR indicate 30-40kt
winds at h500mb in this area which should provide excellent shear
for severe storm development. The model consensus would seem to
suggest storm redevelopment from around KIML-KLBF-KBBW-KONL this
afternoon with mature storm behavior this evening south and east of
the forecast area.

The thunderstorm forecast today and tonight uses the HRRR and HREF
models plus a model consensus blend.

The temperature forecast continues to use blended guidance plus bias
correction for highs in the 80s today and lows in the 50s to lower
60s tonight. This strategy seemed to work well Monday and Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

Upper level high pressure will remained anchored across the desert
southwest through weeks end, meanwhile an upper level low pressure
system will move slowly east across southern and southeast Canada.
Fast northwest flow aloft will occur across the central and western
high plains in between these features. Several disturbances will
reside within the flow, with unsettled conditions and at least
scattered showers and thunderstorms expected through Saturday. The
best chance for precipitation appears to come Friday afternoon and
Friday night. Models have been indicating a fairly significant
shortwave crossing the area during that time. It appears
thunderstorms should develop in a favorable upslope environment
across the western high plains Friday afternoon. Aided by a
southerly low level jet, an MCS is likely to evolve across west
central and southwest NE Friday night. Saturday may end up being
mainly dry in the wake of the system, and will begin to tick back
precipitation chances Saturday.

Rain chances will diminish early next week as the upper level ridge
begins to build northeast across the region. This will bring warmer
temperatures back to the area, with highs Monday near 80 and lower
to mid 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

The strong thunderstorm complex across the western Sandhills is
expected to move south-southeast this morning affecting areas
between North Platte and Big Springs with 40-50 mph winds and very
heavy rainfall. The rapid refresh models missed this one. Once the
low level jet weakens 13z-14z the cluster should weaken near or
south of Interstate 80.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected today. Storm activity will
move south and be located south of I-80 this evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
440 AM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-260945-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
440 AM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018 /340 AM MDT Wed Jul 25 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected today across western
and north central Nebraska. A few storms could become severe and
produce wind damage and large hail this afternoon. An isolated
tornado may form also. The area concern for severe weather is
generally along and south of a line from O'Neill to Stapleton to
Ogallala.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible Thursday. The risk of severe
weather is low.

Thunderstorms are likely Friday. A few storms could become severe
and produce large hail and wind damage, mainly late in the
afternoon and in the evening. The area of concern for severe
weather is generally along and west of line from Merriman to
Mullen to Curtis. Some storms may also be capable of producing
very heavy rainfall.

Thunderstorms are possible at times Saturday and Sunday. The
potential for severe weather is uncertain at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today between 2 pm and 8 pm,
generally along and south of a line from O'Neill to Stapleton to
Ogallala.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
904 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

NEZ038-059-251445-
Custer NE-Lincoln NE-
904 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN FRONTIER...SOUTHEASTERN
LINCOLN AND SOUTHWESTERN CUSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 945 AM CDT...

At 904 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Callaway to near Curtis. Movement was east
at 50 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Broken Bow, Callaway, Brady, Oconto, Etna, Milldale, Hansen Memorial
Reserve State Wildlife Management Area, Jeffrey Canyon State Wildlife
Management Area, Burr Oak, Lodi, Buckeye, Pressey State Wildlife
Management Area, Finchville and Vroman.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 2 between mile markers 272 and 283.
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 197 and 208.

LAT...LON 4144 10007 4146 9959 4105 9948 4105 10022
      4070 10023 4070 10068
TIME...MOT...LOC 1404Z 253DEG 41KT 4130 10000 4070 10052

Kulik

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
104 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

NEZ071-251845-
Frontier NE-
104 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

At 104 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Curtis, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Curtis, Moorefield, Stockville, Medicine Creek Reservoir State
Recreation Area, Maywood, Quick, Orafino, Bluegill Haven Campground,
Willow View Campground, Freedom, Red Willow Reservoir State
Recreation Area and Dancing Leaf Earth Lodge.

This includes Highway 83 between mile markers 27 and 50.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4060 10078 4062 10078 4070 10066 4070 10042
      4054 9998 4044 9998 4043 10009 4035 10010
      4035 10069
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 317DEG 27KT 4060 10064

Kulik

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
134 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0129 PM     HAIL             8 SW STOCKVILLE         40.45N 100.49W
07/25/2018  E1.00 INCH       FRONTIER           NE   PUBLIC

&&

THORNE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
213 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

NEZ059-071-252000-
Frontier NE-Lincoln NE-
213 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRONTIER AND SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 212 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Curtis, moving east at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Curtis, Moorefield, Stockville, Medicine Creek Reservoir State
Recreation Area, Quick, Orafino, Bluegill Haven Campground, Willow
View Campground, Freedom, Red Willow Reservoir State Recreation Area
and Dancing Leaf Earth Lodge.

This includes Highway 83 between mile markers 27 and 37, and between
mile markers 41 and 42.

LAT...LON 4071 10059 4064 9998 4044 9998 4043 9999
      4044 10009 4035 10010 4035 10070
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 285DEG 20KT 4061 10052

Thorne