Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
349 AM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

The SPC moisture transport suggests a healthy MCS could be underway.
The RAP model suggest 800-850mb moisture transport will continue
until 14z and then weaken. The HRRR and HREF show the MCS moving
east southeast through ncntl Neb this morning. A cold front will
drop south in the wake of the system this afternoon, perhaps
providing some focus for new thunderstorm development. Note,
satellite and radar show disturbances back across nrn WY which could
interact with the front this afternoon. By early evening the cold
front should be south and east of the forecast area with
thunderstorm chances just across swrn and eastern portions
of north central Nebraska.

SPC is giving the front a wide berth for severe weather potential
but noted there is uncertainty in the forecast. The model consensus
indicates 1.5 inches of precipitable water at North Platte peaking
at 22z and then falling. Both the RAP and HRRR indicate 30-40kt
winds at h500mb in this area which should provide excellent shear
for severe storm development. The model consensus would seem to
suggest storm redevelopment from around KIML-KLBF-KBBW-KONL this
afternoon with mature storm behavior this evening south and east of
the forecast area.

The thunderstorm forecast today and tonight uses the HRRR and HREF
models plus a model consensus blend.

The temperature forecast continues to use blended guidance plus bias
correction for highs in the 80s today and lows in the 50s to lower
60s tonight. This strategy seemed to work well Monday and Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

Upper level high pressure will remained anchored across the desert
southwest through weeks end, meanwhile an upper level low pressure
system will move slowly east across southern and southeast Canada.
Fast northwest flow aloft will occur across the central and western
high plains in between these features. Several disturbances will
reside within the flow, with unsettled conditions and at least
scattered showers and thunderstorms expected through Saturday. The
best chance for precipitation appears to come Friday afternoon and
Friday night. Models have been indicating a fairly significant
shortwave crossing the area during that time. It appears
thunderstorms should develop in a favorable upslope environment
across the western high plains Friday afternoon. Aided by a
southerly low level jet, an MCS is likely to evolve across west
central and southwest NE Friday night. Saturday may end up being
mainly dry in the wake of the system, and will begin to tick back
precipitation chances Saturday.

Rain chances will diminish early next week as the upper level ridge
begins to build northeast across the region. This will bring warmer
temperatures back to the area, with highs Monday near 80 and lower
to mid 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Tue Jul 24 2018

Scattered thunderstorms will move into north central and central
Nebraska overnight. This activity is expected to impact the KVTN
terminal from 06z to 10z overnight. Some wind gusts may approach
40 KTS in the vicinity of thunderstorms at the KVTN terminal with
visibilities as low as 2SM. Thunderstorms will be possible in the
vicinity of the KLBF terminal around 09Z overnight and then again
later Wednesday afternoon. For both terminals, expect broken high
clouds over the next 24 hours with ceilings in the 12000 to 20000
FT AGL range.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Buttler

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
440 AM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-260945-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
440 AM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018 /340 AM MDT Wed Jul 25 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected today across western
and north central Nebraska. A few storms could become severe and
produce wind damage and large hail this afternoon. An isolated
tornado may form also. The area concern for severe weather is
generally along and south of a line from O'Neill to Stapleton to
Ogallala.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible Thursday. The risk of severe
weather is low.

Thunderstorms are likely Friday. A few storms could become severe
and produce large hail and wind damage, mainly late in the
afternoon and in the evening. The area of concern for severe
weather is generally along and west of line from Merriman to
Mullen to Curtis. Some storms may also be capable of producing
very heavy rainfall.

Thunderstorms are possible at times Saturday and Sunday. The
potential for severe weather is uncertain at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today between 2 pm and 8 pm,
generally along and south of a line from O'Neill to Stapleton to
Ogallala.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
244 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

NEZ005-094-250830-
Eastern Cherry NE-Western Cherry NE-
244 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY UNTIL 330
AM CDT/230 AM MDT/...

At 244 AM CDT/144 AM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 14 miles west of Merritt
Reservoir to 26 miles southwest of Medicine Lake. Movement was
southeast at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Valentine National Wildlife Refuge, Merritt Reservoir, Highway 97
crossing the North Loup River, Speckel Meir Lake, Steer Creek
Campground, Schoolhouse Lake, Intersection of Highway 61 and Survey
Valley Road, Marsh Flat, Round Lake, Hire, Indian Hill, Highway 97
crossing Big Creek and Sevenmile Hill.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 61 between mile markers 184 and 198.
 Highway 97 between mile markers 84 and 120.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 185 and 193.

LAT...LON 4257 10035 4213 10136 4247 10196 4276 10111
TIME...MOT...LOC 0744Z 314DEG 33KT 4269 10114 4246 10182

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
344 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

NEZ007-010-250930-
Holt NE-Boyd NE-
344 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HOLT AND CENTRAL BOYD
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM CDT...

At 344 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Butte, or 11 miles northwest of Spencer, moving south at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Spencer, Atkinson, Butte, Lynch, Gross, Bristow, Dustin, Anoka,
Redbird State Wildlife Management Area, Hull Lake State Wildlife
Management Area, Spencer Dam, Midway, Parshall Bridge State Wildlife
Management Area and Anncar.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 287 and 289.
 Highway 281 between mile markers 198 and 223.
 Highway 12 between mile markers 100 and 127.

LAT...LON 4276 9842 4251 9901 4287 9912 4300 9885
      4300 9856
TIME...MOT...LOC 0844Z 345DEG 27KT 4301 9885

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
259 AM MDT WED JUL 25 2018

NEZ004-094-250945-
Sheridan NE-Western Cherry NE-
259 AM MDT WED JUL 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHERRY AND NORTHERN
SHERIDAN COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM MDT...

At 259 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of White Clay, or 12 miles north of Hay Springs,
moving east at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gordon, Rushville, White Clay, Clinton, Intersection of Highway 87
and Craven Creek Road, Lone Butte, Intersection of Beaver Creek Road
and White Clay Creek Road, Intersection of Highway 87 and Larabee
Road, Mount Maria, Pine Ridge, Hoover Lake, Metcalf State Wildlife
Management Area and Intersection of Highway 27 and Mills Road.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 84 and 107.
 Highway 250 between mile markers 42 and 48.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4300 10208 4253 10229 4278 10277 4279 10278
      4300 10279
TIME...MOT...LOC 0859Z 285DEG 19KT 4285 10265

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
401 AM MDT WED JUL 25 2018

NEZ004-251030-
Sheridan NE-
401 AM MDT WED JUL 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY UNTIL
430 AM MDT...

At 401 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles southeast of Rushville to 12 miles
south of Hay Springs. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Krause Lake, Diamond Lake, Smith Lake State Wildlife Management Area,
Highway 250 crossing the Niobrara River, Wolf Hill and Argo Hill.

This includes Highway 250 between mile markers 10 and 38.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4263 10215 4220 10206 4216 10274 4244 10275
      4244 10277 4252 10278
TIME...MOT...LOC 1001Z 312DEG 36KT 4260 10232 4251 10274

CDC

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