Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS North Platte, NE

883 
WWUS53 KLBF 190216
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
916 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018

NEC089-190245-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0211.000000T0000Z-180719T0245Z/
Holt NE-
916 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL HOLT COUNTY...

At 916 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles north of
Page, or 15 miles east of O'Neill, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of east
central Holt County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4250 9846 4263 9840 4262 9831 4244 9831
      4243 9830 4238 9831
TIME...MOT...LOC 0216Z 288DEG 14KT 4253 9837 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ET

696 
WWUS53 KLBF 190236
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
936 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018

NEC089-190246-
/O.EXP.KLBF.SV.W.0211.000000T0000Z-180719T0245Z/
Holt NE-
936 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL HOLT COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 945 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4250 9846 4263 9840 4262 9831 4244 9831
      4243 9830 4238 9831
TIME...MOT...LOC 0236Z 296DEG 23KT 4253 9837 

$$

ET

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
650 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

H5 analysis this morning had a tandem of shortwaves
across the central CONUS. The first over southern Nebraska and a
second over central South Dakota. Another shortwave was located over
western Oklahoma. High pressure remained anchored across the desert
southwest and this feature extended east into far western Texas.
Further east, a persistent trough of low pressure extended from
northern Quebec into New England. At the surface, a mid day analysis
had a surface low roughly over Phillip South Dakota. A weak wind
convergent line extended east southeast, then south into central
Nebraska, or roughly along a line from just east of Winner SD to
east of Broken Bow NE. Winds were southeasterly east of the
convergent line with westerly winds noted west of the line. AS of 2
PM CDT under partly cloudy skies, readings ranged from 80 to 85
degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

The main forecast challenge lies
in the first 6 to 12 hours of the short term forecast. Already as of
1 PM CDT, an area of steepening low level lapse rates has spread
east along the SD/NEBR border. The nose of these higher lapse rates
was located INVOF Winner South Dakota as of 2 PM CDT per the SPC
meso page. Current satellite imagery has an area of "agitated" Cu
along the SD/NEBR border from Valentine east to Boyd County. This
area is colocated near the nose of the higher lapse rates and INVOF
a surface wind convergence boundary which extends from east of
Winner SD into north central and central Nebraska. ATTM,
thunderstorms are expected to initiate along the SD/NEBR border near
forecast issuance. Wouldn't be surprised if some initiation also
occurs further north possibly as far north as I90 in central SD.
Favorable deep layer shear and the presence of favorable elevated
CAPE, and steep mid level lapse rates, will favor large hail as the
main thunderstorm threat initially. Would expect the tornado threat
to be confined to the northeastern forecast area where the surface
winds are either east southeast or southeast-ie. location where low
level helicities are expected to be most favorable. As this activity
tracks southeast into north central, and central Nebraska this
evening, the severe threat is expected to shift from Hail/wind, to
more of a wind/heavy rain threat. ATTM the greatest threat for
thunderstorms/severe storms appears to reside in the 5 PM CDT to 11
PM CDT time frame, although, convection initiation is expected to
be earlier than that, more during the 3 PM CDT to 5 PM CDT time
frame. Thunderstorms are expected to exit shortly after midnight
with mainly clear skies expected behind the exiting tsras. Was
concerned initially about fog potential overnight, however, with no
support from numerical guidance, will forgo mentioning fog. Much
warmer air will begin to push into the western forecast area on
Thursday as ridging begins to build north and northeast into the
central Rockies/Central Plains. H85 temps by Thursday afternoon,
approach 30 to 32 degrees C in the far southwest. That being said,
fcst highs in the upper 90s remain on track.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

Thursday night through Saturday...The upper level
disturbance, responsible for thunderstorms Tonight, will drift east
into Minnesota and Wisconsin Friday, ending up in Indiana by
Saturday. At the same time, ridging will build into the northern
Rockies then northern plains by Saturday. This will lead to a mainly
dry forecast with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Beginning Saturday night, a
trough of low pressure aloft will track across southern Canada. Mid
level warm air advection will increase Saturday night from
northeastern Colorado into western Nebraska. This will lead to an
increased threat for thunderstorms Saturday night in the west.
Better chances for showers and thunderstorms will arrive Sunday
night in association with a cold fropa. Low end precipitation
chances will continue into midweek next week. Upper level high
pressure will intensify and move west to the swrn CONUS early next
week. This will place the forecast area in northwesterly flow aloft
with weak upper level disturbances riding this flow from the
northern Rockies, se into the central plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

Local radar display shows numerous storms across north central
NEB east of highway 83, some strong to severe. Current thinking is
storms will continue to affect mainly north central NEB through
the evening hours moving east to southeast. Otherwise, current
thinking is storms will not affect the KLBF terminal. Storms not
expected to affect directly the KVTN terminal but will be nearby
thus VCTS present through 03Z. Of which, gusty outflow winds could
affect the terminal but confidence low so tempo group at this
time. Chances for thunderstorms diminish late tonight with skies
clearing. Tomorrow, sunny skies and VFR conditions prevail with
light northwest breezes.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...ET

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
340 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-192045-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
340 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018 /240 PM MDT Wed Jul 18 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening north
of a line from Sparks to Burwell. Primary threats will be large
hail, strong winds, and isolated tornadoes. A tornado watch is in
effect until 11 PM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

Additional thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon and evening
Sunday through Wednesday. Severe potential is uncertain at this
time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and
evening for locations northeast of a line from Sparks to Burwell.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

kulik

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
807 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N TAYLOR              41.81N 99.38W
07/18/2018  M62 MPH          LOUP               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL ALSO OBSERVED

&&

SNIVELY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
813 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     HAIL             5 W BURWELL             41.78N 99.23W
07/18/2018  E1.00 INCH       LOUP               NE   PUBLIC

            ONLY A FEW QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

THORNE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
819 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018

NEZ009-010-027-028-190200-
Loup NE-Holt NE-Garfield NE-Rock NE-
819 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ROCK...NORTHEASTERN
LOUP...SOUTHWESTERN HOLT AND NORTHWESTERN GARFIELD COUNTIES UNTIL 900
PM CDT...

At 818 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles north of Calamus Reservoir State Recreation Area, or 21 miles
north of Burwell, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Deverre, Valley View Flat Campground, Carson Lake and Hannamon Bayou
Campground.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4210 9942 4217 9917 4187 9887 4188 9932
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 327DEG 18KT 4207 9924

Snively

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
838 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     HAIL             16 N ONEILL             42.69N 98.65W
07/18/2018  E1.00 INCH       HOLT               NE   PUBLIC

&&

THORNE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
841 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018

NEZ027-028-038-190230-
Loup NE-Custer NE-Garfield NE-
841 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOUP AND
NORTHEASTERN CUSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 841 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Taylor, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Taylor, Sargent, Comstock, Big Oak Canyon, Divide Hill, Wescott and
Kent Diversion Dam State Wildlife Management Area.

This includes Highway 183 between mile markers 107 and 130.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
central and north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4174 9921 4152 9921 4153 9951 4182 9951
      4188 9931 4174 9920
TIME...MOT...LOC 0141Z 332DEG 20KT 4176 9939

Snively

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
846 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     HAIL             13 NNW TAYLOR           41.94N 99.48W
07/18/2018  E2.00 INCH       LOUP               NE   PUBLIC

&&

THORNE