Areal Flood Warning 21, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1225 PM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 PM EDT SUN SEP 9 2018

Center of surface low pressure looks to be just northeast of
Frankfort, pulling slowly NNE. Heavy rains associated with a warm
front through the northern parts of eastern KY continue where
flash flood warnings are in effect. Additional showers and
thunderstorms have developed in the warm sector ahead of the cold
front. The cold front extends from the low to near Bowling Green.
The cold front will only slowly makes its was east and should be
near the VA border by 12Z Monday. Some of the storms in the warm
sector could produce strong wind gusts this afternoon. Have
updated the forecast with the latest observational trends, which
includes lower temperatures in the far northern part of the
forecast area for this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 1000 AM EDT SUN SEP 9 2018

A band of showers and embedded thunderstorms continues to track
across the northwest part of the forecast area. With locally heavy
rain in this band have issued a flash flood warning for parts of
Bath and Montgomery counties. Have also increased rain chances in
this area for the next couple of hours. The southeastern two-
thirds of the forecast area will have abundant sunshine from this
morning into the afternoon, which will increase destabilization.
With sufficient shear and instability a few storms this afternoon
could produce isolated wind gusts of 40 to 50 knots. The forecast
area remains in a marginal risk for severe storms today.

UPDATE Issued at 758 AM EDT SUN SEP 9 2018

A band of showers and some embedded thunderstorms continues to
persist near the Interstate 64 corridor. Dual Pol estimates
indicate that rainfall in this area is nearing the 3 hour Flash
Flood Guidance in a few locations. A Flood Advisory has been
extended for some of this area accordingly. The area extent of the
Flash Flood Watch remains valid as well. Main updates were to
adjust temps toward recent observations and raise pops over the
next couple of hours near the I 64 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT SUN SEP 9 2018

The remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon have more or less merged
with a frontal zone that extends across the Commonwealth this
morning. An upper level trough extends from the Great Lakes to the
Mid MS Valley and Lower OH Valley early this morning. At the
surface, an area of low pressure was over western KY with a warm
front extending east and northeast along or just south of the I 64
corridor. Showers and a stray thunderstorm or two were ongoing
across the region at this time. Overall, rain rates have decreased
overnight and there has been a relative lull in the activity for
much of the southern two thirds of the area.

PW is expected to remain in the 1.75 to about 2.1 inch range into
this evening as the upper level trough progresses east and an
upper low briefly closes off over MI. At the surface, low pressure
should reach OH this evening with the trailing cold front moving
across East KY this evening and tonight. With abundant moisture in
place, rather widespread convection is anticipated especially
this afternoon and evening. This convection should continue to
produce locally heavy rainfall. Portions of the area have received
heavy rain during the past 24 hours. The heaviest rain has
generally been northwest of JKL especially nearer to the I 64
corridor. Some locations nearer to JKL as well as in Pike County
picked up heavy rain as well so the areal extent of the Flood
Watch has remained unchanged. Locations that receive more
substantial heating would develop stronger instability and
possibly experience a stronger storm or two or perhaps a locally
severe thunderstorm with gusty winds being the main threat. This
has been highlighted in the Marginal Risk from SPC and is also
noted in the HWO along with the locally heavy rain and flash flood
risk.

The upper trough/low should continue gradually progressing across
the Great Lakes and into Ontario by the end of the period while
the surface low tracks toward Lake Erie. The trailing cold front
should eventually pass east of the area on Monday. Overall, a
decreasing chance of convection and rain rates is expected
overnight and into the day on Monday and as a drier airmass begins
to move in.

Temperatures should reach near normal levels today with cloud
cover leading to slightly above normal temperatures tonight. Low
level moisture should linger into Monday despite the overall
moisture in the column decreasing. The persistent low clouds on
Monday will suppress high temperatures which should only reach the
low to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM EDT SUN SEP 9 2018

The models are in good agreement with the near term portion of the
extended, showing the main trough associated with the remnants of
Tropical Storm Gordon moving off to the northeast and dissipating.
Closer to the surface, the cold front from Sunday and into Monday
will stall just southeast of Kentucky by Tuesday evening. The
boundary will then slowly meander back north into eastern Kentucky
early Wednesday and remain through Friday. This will keep chances of
showers in the forecast, with the potential for afternoon/evening
thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday as well.

The models seem to be coming into better agreement than past runs
with the trajectory of Tropical Storm Florence; however, the ECMWF
continues to show the storm moving more inland than the GFS. Both
models do show it progressing up to the North Carolina and Virginia
border by late Friday, but progression slows into the weekend with a
gradual transition into the northern stream due to zonal flow aloft.
With this system near the end of the forecast period, confidence is
low whether eastern Kentucky would be impacted. However, this will
continue to be monitored with future model runs.

High temperatures for the extended will start out in the upper 70s
and then gradually increase to be in the mid to upper 80s by the end
of the week. Lows will follow a similar trend, starting out in the
low 60s and gradually increase to the mid to upper 60s by
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT SUN SEP 9 2018

Some valley locations initially have MVFR to IFR fog while more
northern locations near or north of I 64 have convection ongoing
with as well as low clouds. Valley fog should gradually lift
through 14Z or 15Z with ceilings also gradually improving during
that period in the north as the warm front gradually lifts toward
the OH River. A lull in convection is anticipated late in the
morning, but with daytime heating, shower and thunderstorm
activity will pick back up especially after 18Z ahead of the cold
front as low pressure tracks into OH. As this convection and cold
front work across the area, a gradual return to MVFR and some IFR
is expected in most locations during the later 12 to 15 hours of
the period. Winds will be light on average through the period
outside of any thunderstorms.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-104-106>112-119-120.

&&

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...CGAL
AVIATION...JP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
441 AM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-104-106>112-119-120-101145-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Elliott-
Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville,
and South Williamson
441 AM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Multiple rounds of showers and some thunderstorms will lead to
locally heavy rain through this evening. This additional rainfall
could lead to flash flooding, especially in locations that
experience multiple thunderstorms.

In addition, thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could
produce strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms are also possible at times from Wednesday through
Friday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of heavy rain, flash
flooding, or high water.

KYZ068-069-079-080-083>088-113>118-101145-
Rockcastle-Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-
Bell-Harlan-Knott-Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-
Including the cities of Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville,
Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City,
Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville,
Cumberland, Harlan, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, and Whitesburg
441 AM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rain through this
evening. Localized flash flooding is possible, especially in
locations that experience multiple thunderstorms.

In addition, thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could
produce strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms are also possible at times from Wednesday through
Friday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of flash flooding
or high water.

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
916 AM EDT SUN SEP 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 AM     FLOOD            5 ESE MOUNT STERLING    38.03N 83.86W
09/09/2018                   MONTGOMERY         KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            A FEW INCHES OF WATER OVER SPENCER ROAD SOUTHEAST OF
            MOUNT STERLING.

&&

JCG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
917 AM EDT SUN SEP 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S OGGS STATION        38.01N 83.82W
09/09/2018  M3.15 INCH       MONTGOMERY         KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL.

&&

JCARICO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1015 AM EDT SUN SEP 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     FLOOD            6 N OWINGSVILLE         38.22N 83.76W
09/09/2018                   BATH               KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OF AN UNKNOW DEPTH FLOWING OVER WYOMING/BLUE ROCK
            ROAD.

0930 AM     FLOOD            4 SW OWINGSVILLE        38.10N 83.81W
09/09/2018                   BATH               KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH FLOWING OVER STEPSTONE ROAD.

0930 AM     FLOOD            4 SE SHARPSBURG         38.16N 83.88W
09/09/2018                   BATH               KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH FLOWING OVER FLAT CREEK ROAD.

&&

JCARICO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1211 PM EDT SUN SEP 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S OWINGSVILLE         38.12N 83.76W
09/09/2018                   BATH               KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER FLOWING OVER HIGHWAY 36...NEAR INTERSTATE 64 AT
            EXIT 121. ROAD CLOSED.

1130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NW OLYMPIA            38.12N 83.72W
09/09/2018                   BATH               KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER RESCUE AS WOMAN TRAPPED IN VEHICLE ON HIGHWAY 36
            BETWEEN OLYMPIA AND INTERSTATE 64.

&&

JCARICO