Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
330 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018

Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed along and ahead of
an approaching cold front today. Some of the stronger storms
produced some very heavy rain on the eastern border of the state.
With plenty of surface based instability, there has been a lack of
enough shear to sustain the storms and they are rapidly falling
apart. However, many mesoscale boundaries and outflows through the
afternoon and early evening will provide a focus for scattered
shower and thunderstorm activity ahead of the advancing boundary.
Dry air lags a bit behind the boundary, and depending on the
rapidity of the clearing later this evening, may need to watch for
patchy fog development along and just behind the front. At this
time, not enough of confidence to add to forecast as it may be
very localized, not to mention that the winds behind this boundary
so far today have been a little higher than advertised in IA/NW
IL. Cooler temps expected tonight and into tomorrow.

Tomorrows forecast will be cooler and slightly drier, with highs
in the 80s. The llvl moisture from tonights showers may have some
localized muggy impacts in the morning. Clearing of the clouds
throughout the day, with the SE partly cloudy by the early evening
hours. The clouds in the southeast will keep some of the moisture
around a little longer, and the heat indices will be in the upper
80s/near 90.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018

Upper level ridging once again takes over the eastern half of the
country, building in a surface reflection into the weekend.
Models are maintaining slightly cooler and drier air through the
remainder of the forecast. As a result, the heat indices are far
more comfortable for the weekend. Low level moisture at this time
of year is notoriously difficult, however. Given the available
soil moisture, evapotranspiration from the mature crops in the
field is likely not handled well in this situation. Although
models are picking up on the bias in the shorter term, concerned
that the blended dewpoints has not yet responded for the weekend.
Heat and humidity creep back into the forecast moving into the
workweek, with heat indices in the 90s by Monday. Another issue
will be the pops creeping into the forecast from a system over the
Gulf States pushing convective activity up into the Ohio River
Valley. The latest GFS and ECMWF are showing some consistency with
a more northerly extent to the showers and thunderstorms for the
start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018

Broad area of showers and thunderstorms developing NE of CMI and
W of SPI... but moving away from CMI, and not near enough to SPI
to warrant a mention. Cumulus clouds stream across most of the
region, with cirrus expanding SW into CMI. Have to keep an eye on
the VCTS because its possible to pop up in about any terminal with
this unstable airmass. VFR for now with mostly W/SW winds. Front
on approach later this evening, with a switch to more N/NW winds
behind it. Winds should still remain generally less than 10kts
through the pd.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...HJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
321 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-061100-
Cass-Champaign-Christian-Clark-Clay-Coles-Crawford-Cumberland-
De Witt-Douglas-Edgar-Effingham-Fulton-Jasper-Knox-Lawrence-Logan-
Macon-Marshall-Mason-McLean-Menard-Morgan-Moultrie-Peoria-Piatt-
Richland-Sangamon-Schuyler-Scott-Shelby-Stark-Tazewell-Vermilion-
Woodford-
321 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Hot and humid conditions will linger for a few more hours, with
heat indices over 100 degrees into this evening.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected into this evening. There is
a marginal risk of severe storms, with damaging wind gusts the
primary threat. Torrential rainfall and frequent lightning are
also possible with the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed into early evening.

Bak

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
239 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2018

ILZ042-048-051-052015-
Logan-Sangamon-Menard-
239 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MENARD...SOUTHERN
LOGAN AND NORTHEASTERN SANGAMON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 238 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorm from
near Elkhart to Athens, moving southeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lincoln, Sherman, Athens, Mount Pulaski, Williamsville, Elkhart,
Middletown, Chestnut, Cornland, Spaulding, Dawson, Buffalo,
Broadwell, Cantrall and Fancy Prairie.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 55 between mile markers 103 and 126.
 Interstate 72 between mile markers 115 and 120.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4020 8948 4008 8914 4006 8915 3982 8931
      3992 8982
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 306DEG 28KT 4009 8945

Geelhart

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
343 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2018

ILZ038-052115-
McLean-
343 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MCLEAN COUNTY UNTIL 415
PM CDT...

At 342 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Downs, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. A wind
gust of 49 mph was reported at the Central Illinois Regional Airport
at 336 PM.

Locations impacted include...
Bloomington, Normal, Le Roy, Downs, Saybrook, Arrowsmith, Ellsworth,
Bloomington Airport, Holder, Shirley and Moraine View State Park.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 55 between mile markers 153 and 161.
 Interstate 74 between mile markers 130 and 154.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4042 8852 4028 8871 4028 8882 4045 8919
      4056 8888
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 300DEG 20KT 4045 8886

Geelhart

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
355 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2018

ILZ041-052130-
Mason-
355 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL MASON COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM CDT...

At 355 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Easton, or 9 miles east of Havana, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mason City and Easton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4030 8996 4035 8978 4022 8964 4016 8988
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 330DEG 9KT 4028 8988

Geelhart