Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
428 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifting through the region this afternoon and into
the evening will combine with a low pressure center pushing
through the lower Great Lakes. These features will serve as the
focus for strong to severe storms through this evening, combined
with torrential rain. The upper low will remain close to the
region into early next week, with temperatures remaining
slightly below normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As the convection begins pulling away from the frontal boundary,
the threat into the evening with the first line of convection
will be more occasionally gusty winds, but as it moves into more
stable air, the potential for severe storms does diminish.

The second area of convection currently into eastern Indiana
does maintain the potential for occasional bowing segments, and
still some discrete cells, with these storms in an area with
low level shear values in the 25kt range. However, even these
storms will be pushing into a less favorable area, so the severe
threat will diminish significantly over the next few hours.

Additional threat is the very efficient rain with these storms
with warm cloud depths 35-40kft and an enhanced llj focusing
over the Cincinnati tri state through the evening. Have issued a
short term flash flood watch for the far southern forecast area
until Midnight, though its possible the threat will diminish
earlier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
For Saturday, the stacked low will be pushing through southern
Great Lakes. This will keep convection pivoting around the upper
low, but with only marginal instability and lapse rates,
convection is not expected to pose a severe threat. Greatest
potential will be closer to the southeast forecast area where
some marginal low level shear remains in place.

With the upper low lingering over the area, below normal
temperatures to continue with Max temperatures

Max temps are expected to be in the upper 70s to around 80, and
overnight lows in the mid-upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper level low will drift slowly south Sunday into Monday. Will
continue with likely pops on Sunday, tapering back to chance pops
through the day on Monday. With the upper level low overhead, highs
on Sunday will be below normal, mainly in the mid to upper 70s. High
temperatures on monday will be near 80 degrees.

The upper level low will push down toward the Gulf States through
mid week, with our area remaining in between it and some broad
troughing across the upper Great Lakes region. However, a weak lower
level convergent boundary may linger across or just southeast of our
area through mid week. This could lead to some lower chance, mainly
diurnal pops through Thursday. High temperatures in the lower to mid
80s are expected through the remainder of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and storms will increase in coverage with the warm
frontal boundary nosing into the area. Increasing instability
will mean strong to severe storms possible, so have included a
period with a tempo of at least 35-40kt wind gusts possible
through 00z in the west and a lesser possibility in the eastern
TAF sites through about 02-03z. Very heavy rain also with these
storms to occasional mvfr visibility and even ifr in the
downpours.

Even after the severe threat diminishes after 00-03z, lingering
shra and scattered tsra, along with low ceilings will continue
mvfr conditions. With the upper low expected to linger over the
region through Saturday, mvfr cigs still possible through the
period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will remain possible at times from
Saturday afternoon through Monday, and then again on Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ077>079-
     081-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for INZ073>075-
     080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...JDR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
425 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>045-051>054-060>063-070>072-
080-211100-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Preble-
Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Highland-
425 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio
and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Occasional thunderstorms will continue into tonight. Some of the
storms may become severe through this evening. The main threat will
be damaging wind. However, the threat for large hail and possibly a
tornado will also persist into this evening.

Torrential rain is also possible. While widespread flash flooding is
not likely, where thunderstorms track repeatedly over the same area,
there will also be a flash flood threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to relay severe weather reports to the
National Weather Service.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ077>079-081-211100-
Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-
Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hamilton-
Clermont-Brown-Adams-
425 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, South Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Occasional thunderstorms will continue into tonight. Some of the
storms may become severe through this evening. The main threat will
be damaging wind. However, the threat for large hail and possibly a
tornado will also persist into this evening.

Torrential rain is also possible with the storms and this could
result in some flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to relay severe weather reports to the
National Weather Service.

OHZ088-211100-
Scioto-
425 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Occasional thunderstorms will continue into tonight. Some of the
storms may become severe through this evening. The main threat will
be damaging wind.

Torrential rain is also possible with the storms and this could
result in some flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to relay severe weather reports to the
National Weather Service.

OHZ046-055-056-064-065-073-074-082-211100-
Delaware-Franklin OH-Licking-Pickaway-Fairfield-Ross-Hocking-Pike-
425 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Ohio and South
Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Occasional thunderstorms will continue into tonight. Some of the
storms may become severe through this evening. The main threat will
be damaging wind.

Torrential rain is also possible. While widespread flash flooding is
not likely, where thunderstorms track repeatedly over the same area,
there will also be a flash flood threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to relay severe weather reports to the
National Weather Service.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
514 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE EAST ENTERPRISE   38.86N 84.98W
07/20/2018                   SWITZERLAND        IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE BLOCKING ENTERPRISE ROAD.

&&

JEG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
517 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

INZ073-202145-
Ripley IN-
517 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT RIPLEY COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM
EDT...

At 516 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 7 miles east of
North Vernon, moving east at 30 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Nickel size hail...
Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning...

Locations impacted include...
Versailles, Osgood, Holton, Friendship, Versailles Lake, Rexville,
Otter Village, Benham, Olean and New Marion.

Do not stay in the open or seek shelter under trees when lightning
threatens. Move indoors when a thunderstorm approaches.

Residents in these areas should remain alert. If this storm becomes
stronger, then a warning may be needed.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3911 8544 3923 8523 3897 8513 3895 8513
      3895 8545
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 251DEG 24KT 3902 8547

Binau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
522 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0313 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE CENTER SQUARE     38.83N 85.00W
07/20/2018                   SWITZERLAND        IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT SWITZERLAND COUNTY.

&&

JEG