Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Wilmington, NC

689 
WGUS72 KILM 160929
FFSILM

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
529 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

SCC033-051-069-160936-
/O.CAN.KILM.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-180916T1715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dillon SC-Horry SC-Marlboro SC-
529 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL DILLON...NORTHEASTERN HORRY
AND NORTHEASTERN MARLBORO COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

Flash flooding may develop later this afternoon however. 

LAT...LON 3417 7783 3384 7796 3391 7814 3390 7837
      3385 7854 3463 7946 3477 7933 3484 7935
      3483 7919 3493 7907 3491 7896 3484 7890
      3486 7850 3455 7825 3472 7811 3472 7768
      3448 7758 3444 7752

$$

NCC017-019-047-129-141-155-161715-
/O.CON.KILM.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-180916T1715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
New Hanover NC-Pender NC-Robeson NC-Bladen NC-Brunswick NC-
Columbus NC-
529 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR NEW HANOVER...PENDER...ROBESON...BLADEN...BRUNSWICK AND COLUMBUS
COUNTIES...

* Until 115 PM EDT Sunday.

* At 520 AM EDT, widespread flash flooding and water rescues have 
  been reported by media and law enforcement within the warned area. 
  15 to 20 inches of rain have fallen in parts of the warning; 
  several months worth of rain. Rainfall rates in some areas will be 
  1 to 2 inches per hour. Life threatening, catastrophic flooding 
  will continue.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Wilmington, Lumberton, Leland, Oak Island, Carolina Beach,
  Whiteville, Burgaw, Shallotte, Elizabethtown, Sunset Beach, Red
  Springs, Wrightsville Beach, Kure Beach, Surf City, Holden Beach,
  Ocean Isle Beach, Caswell Beach, Bald Head Island, Snows Cut and
  South Masonboro Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles. Never drive your vehicle into areas where
the water covers the road. Flood waters are usually deeper than they
appear. Flowing water may be powerful enough to sweep vehicles off
the road.

A Flash Flood Warning means that dangerous flooding is imminent or
occurring.  Residents within the warned area should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 3417 7783 3384 7796 3391 7814 3390 7837
      3385 7854 3463 7946 3477 7933 3484 7935
      3483 7919 3493 7907 3491 7896 3484 7890
      3486 7850 3455 7825 3472 7811 3472 7768
      3448 7758 3444 7752

$$

MBB

604 
WGUS72 KILM 161233
FFSILM

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
833 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

NCC017-019-047-129-141-155-161715-
/O.CON.KILM.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-180916T1715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
New Hanover NC-Pender NC-Robeson NC-Bladen NC-Brunswick NC-
Columbus NC-
833 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM EDT FOR NEW
HANOVER...PENDER...ROBESON...BLADEN...BRUNSWICK AND COLUMBUS
COUNTIES...

At 829 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the warned 
area. As much as 16 inches of rain has fallen just in the past 12 
hours in the Wilmington metro area, with event totals around 26 
inches in parts of Pender County. Widespread significant flash 
flooding will continue. 

Additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible in the 
next several hours as another batch of heavy rain moves onshore near 
Cape Fear.

Many roads remain covered in deep, flowing water. Interstate 40 
remains closed between Wilmington and I-95. Please avoid any 
unnecessary travel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles. Never drive your vehicle into areas where
the water covers the road. Flood waters are usually deeper than they
appear. Flowing water may be powerful enough to sweep vehicles off
the road.

A Flash Flood Warning means that dangerous flooding is imminent or
occurring.  Residents within the warned area should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 3417 7783 3384 7796 3391 7814 3390 7837
      3385 7854 3463 7946 3477 7933 3484 7935
      3483 7919 3493 7907 3491 7896 3484 7890
      3486 7850 3455 7825 3472 7811 3472 7768
      3448 7758 3444 7752

$$

TRA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
522 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Florence, now downgraded to a depression,
centered inland across South Carolina, will drift to the west
through today bringing additional significant rainfall to the
Carolinas. A drying trend will follow through this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Sunday...Florence, now a depression, will move on
a steady clip westward toward the southern Appalachians as it
weakens through today. A Tornado Watch remains in effect and we
have had several spin ups overnight leading to Tornado Warnings,
mainly moving on shore in torrential rain bands between the tip
of Cape Fear and Wrightsville Beach. The outer circulation and
some rainbands will continue to affect the area with periods of
torrential rain. The rainfall rates in these rainbands were 1 to
3 inches per hour. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until
this evening and a fairly large Flash Flood Warning covers all
of our NC zones across our local forecast area. Flash flooding
was already occurring across the area and any additional
torrential rainfall will increase the severity of flash
flooding.

Plenty of moisture will continue to feed up in a deep southerly
tropical flow with Pcp water values remaining up around 2.5
inches through this afternoon with only a gradual drop off
through tonight down close to 2.25 inches by morning. Models
showing axis of heaviest rain in a fairly persistent rainband
running from tip of Cape Fear NW to Bladen county and portions
of Pender County through tonight, but other embedded heavier
rain showers will be possible farther in other areas, as well.
Could see an additional 5 to 10 inches in this almost stationary
rainband through tonight.

This should be the final day of gusty winds and rain from the
remnants of Florence, with gradual improvement thereafter.
Should see drier air making its way in through the mid levels
through tonight. Temps in the mid to upper 70s will not increase
much today, running into the lower 80s this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Deep layer southwesterly flow only
becoming peripherally related to Florence on Monday. Though this
flow will not offer up much in the way of forcing low level
moisture will be adequate for some pretty high chance POPs
though luckily QPF prospects appear low if for no other reason
some increasingly dry mid level air. Mid level troughiness
sweeps across the area pushing a cold front through on Tuesday.
A few showers will be possible but once again mid level dry air
should limit their coverage and their QPF potential.
Temperatures will be just a few degrees above climatology by day
but quite elevated by night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 430 PM Saturday...Backdoor cold front comes through on
Wednesday likely with little fanfare but lowering rain chances and
aiding in drying the area out. Surface and mid level high pressure
progress slowly eastward late in the period keeping temperatures
seasonable and rain chances minimized; with only a small increase in
moisture/return flow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 06Z...Rainbands running around Tropical Storm Florence
will continue to produce periods of torrential rain with IFR
conditions early this morning but improving to MVFR. The main
band this morning will be moving from S-SE to N-NW across mainly
ILM with some intermittent shra over MYR/CRE. Visibilities
could go as low as a half mile in the torrential rain. Looks
like FLO and LBT will run in between heaviest rain bands over
the next several hours. Winds along the coast still gusting to
25 to 30 kts with some higher gusts to 40 kts at times, but only
in the stronger convection in rain bands. Look for improving
conditions with winds diminishing through today and raised
ceilings and vsbys toward end of TAF period.

Extended Outlook...Gradual improvement east to west into
Monday. VFR Tue-Thurs.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Sunday...Last advisory for Tropical Storm Florence
as it has now weakened to a depression. A Small Craft Advisory
was issued to account for elevated seas and winds which will
continue through today as the remnants of Florence makes its way
westward toward the Southern Appalachians. Essentially, winds
and seas will diminish through tonight, with seas starting out
around 9 to 12 ft and dropping to 6 to 8 by this evening and
down to 4 to 6 ft by daybreak Monday. Winds up near 20 to 30 kts
with a few gale force gusts lingering this morning, will drop
to around 15 kts through tonight.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Wind will be out of the southwest on
Monday as Florence becomes an open trough and high pressure sits
over the western Atlantic. As this through flatten on Tuesday
the increased westerly flow will help to push a cold front
across the area. SW wind will turn to the W, possibly veering a
little more. The FROPA will bring a small uptick in wind and
seas but no flags or headlines are expected.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 430 PM Saturday...A cold front will sag south across the
area Wednesday and usher in northerly winds. These will veer to
easterly on Thursday as the center of the high progresses
eastward. Seas will average 3 ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Wind gusts at the Wilmington International Airport reached 105
mph in the eyewall of Hurricane Florence Friday morning. This
has been the highest wind gust measured since Hurricane Helene
struck the Port City on September 27, 1958.

Peak Wind Gusts      Date            Storm
    105 mph        9/14/2018    Hurricane Florence
     70 mph        10/8/2016    Hurricane Matthew
     66 mph        8/27/2011    Hurricane Irene
     74 mph        8/16/2004    Hurricane Charley
     86 mph        9/16/1999    Hurricane Floyd
     74 mph        8/26/1998    Hurricane Bonnie
     86 mph        9/5/1996     Hurricane Fran
     70 mph        7/12/1996    Hurricane Bertha
     74 mph        9/13/1984    Hurricane Diana
     97 mph        9/11/1960    Hurricane Donna
    135 mph        9/27/1958    Hurricane Helene
     83 mph        8/12/1955    Hurricane Connie
     98 mph       10/15/1954    Hurricane Hazel

The barometric pressure at the Wilmington airport reached 28.51
inches, or 965.5 millibars, now the fourth lowest pressure ever
measured in Wilmington.

Lowest Pressure       Date           Storm
959.7 millibars    9/16/1999    Hurricane Floyd
961.4 millibars    9/5/1996     Hurricane Fran
962.1 millibars    9/11/1960    Hurricane Donna
965.5 millibars    9/14/2018    Hurricane Florence
969.9 millibars    8/26/1998    Hurricane Bonnie

At Wrightsville Beach, the National Ocean Service gauge on
Johnnie Mercer Pier measured a pressure of 28.33 inches, or 959.2
millibars as Hurricane Florence came ashore.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-
     033-039-054>056-058-059.
     High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for SCZ054-056.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
     High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for NCZ106-108-
     110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for NCZ107.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RGZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
522 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

AMZ250-252-170930-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
522 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 378 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-055-058-059-170930-
Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-
Inland Georgetown-Central Horry-Northern Horry-
522 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ106-108-110-170930-
Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-Coastal Brunswick-
522 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 378 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ087-096-099-105-109-170930-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Inland Brunswick-
522 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 378 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ107-170930-
Inland New Hanover-
522 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 378 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   Coastal Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

AMZ254-256-170930-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
522 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SCZ054-056-170930-
Coastal Horry-Coastal Georgetown-
522 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

CRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1139 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1041 PM     TORNADO          1 NW ATKINSON           34.54N  78.18W
09/15/2018                   PENDER             NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWO MOBILE HOMES FLIPPED OVER ON SLOCUM TRAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1800283

RGZ