Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1057 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression Florence will drift west across South
Carolina today bringing more rainfall to the Carolinas. A
drying trend will follow through this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 10 AM Sunday...Minimal changes required for morning
update. TD Florence continues slowly moving west across central
SC. Rainbands will continue to move across the area, although
rainfall rates and coverage will be decreasing throughout the
day. Still could see anywhere from 3 to 6 inches of rain across
the area. At this point any additional rain is going to
exacerbate any ongoing flooding and this will once again be the
main concern for today.

Previous discussion from 700 AM Sunday follows: Tornado Watch
extended in both area and time to include NC zones and portion
of SC through 5 pm. Final Advisory was issued for Florence at
5am. Florence, now a depression, will move on a steady clip
westward toward the southern Appalachians as it weakens through
today. A Tornado Watch remains in effect and we have had several
spin ups overnight leading to Tornado Warnings, mainly moving
on shore in torrential rain bands between the tip of Cape Fear
and Wrightsville Beach. The outer circulation and some rainbands
will continue to affect the area with periods of torrential
rain. The rainfall rates in these rainbands were 1 to 3 inches
per hour. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until this
evening and a fairly large Flash Flood Warning covers all of our
NC zones across our local forecast area. Flash flooding was
already occurring across the area and any additional torrential
rainfall will increase the severity of flash flooding.

Plenty of moisture will continue to feed up in a deep southerly
tropical flow with Pcp water values remaining up around 2.5
inches through this afternoon with only a gradual drop off
through tonight down close to 2.25 inches by morning. Models
showing axis of heaviest rain in a fairly persistent rainband
running from tip of Cape Fear NW to Bladen county and portions
of Pender County through tonight, but other embedded heavier
rain showers will be possible farther in other areas, as well.
Could see an additional 5 to 10 inches in this almost stationary
rainband through tonight.

This should be the final day of gusty winds and rain from the
remnants of Florence, with gradual improvement thereafter.
Should see drier air making its way in through the mid levels
through tonight. Temps in the mid to upper 70s will not increase
much today, running into the lower 80s this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Deep layer southwesterly flow only
becoming peripherally related to Florence on Monday. Though this
flow will not offer up much in the way of forcing low level
moisture will be adequate for some pretty high chance POPs
though luckily QPF prospects appear low if for no other reason
some increasingly dry mid level air. Mid level troughiness
sweeps across the area pushing a cold front through on Tuesday.
A few showers will be possible but once again mid level dry air
should limit their coverage and their QPF potential.
Temperatures will be just a few degrees above climatology by day
but quite elevated by night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 430 PM Saturday...Backdoor cold front comes through on
Wednesday likely with little fanfare but lowering rain chances and
aiding in drying the area out. Surface and mid level high pressure
progress slowly eastward late in the period keeping temperatures
seasonable and rain chances minimized; with only a small increase in
moisture/return flow.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 12Z...Rainbands running around remnants of Florence will
continue to produce periods of torrential rain with IFR conditions
slowly improving to MVFR conditions through the period. The main
band this morning will be moving from S-SE to N-NW across mainly ILM
with some intermittent shra over MYR/CRE. Another band was affecting
FLO. Visibilities could go as low as a half mile in the torrential
rain. Winds along the coast still gusting to 30 to 35 kts with an
occasional higher gusts. Look for improving conditions with winds
diminishing slowly through today and raised ceilings and vsbys
toward end of TAF period.

Extended Outlook...Gradual improvement east to west into
Monday. VFR Tue-Thurs.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM Sunday...Minimal changes required for morning
update. Hazardous conditions continue across the waters as TD
Florence slowly moves away from the coast. Seas continue to run
7 to 10 ft with onshore flow running on the high end of the 20
to 25 kt range. Gusts in excess of 30 kt can be expected.
Conditions will gradually improve, although that is relative and
the SCA will remain in effect into Monday.

Previous discussion from 700 AM Sunday follows: Last advisory
for Tropical Storm Florence was issued at 5 am. A Small Craft
Advisory was issued to account for elevated seas and winds which
will continue through today as the remnants of Florence move
westward toward the Southern Appalachians. Essentially, winds
and seas will diminish through tonight, with seas starting out
around 9 to 12 ft and dropping to 6 to 8 by this evening and
down to 4 to 6 ft by daybreak Monday. Winds up near 20 to 30 kts
with a few gale force gusts lingering this morning, will drop
to around 15 kts through tonight.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Wind will be out of the southwest on
Monday as Florence becomes an open trough and high pressure sits
over the western Atlantic. As this through flatten on Tuesday
the increased westerly flow will help to push a cold front
across the area. SW wind will turn to the W, possibly veering a
little more. The FROPA will bring a small uptick in wind and
seas but no flags or headlines are expected.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 430 PM Saturday...A cold front will sag south across the
area Wednesday and usher in northerly winds. These will veer to
easterly on Thursday as the center of the high progresses
eastward. Seas will average 3 ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 1030 AM Sunday...Significant coastal flooding is expected
along the lower portions of the Cape Fear River this afternoon
and evening. River levels remain elevated as runoff from
excessive, heavy rainfall flows into rivers already swollen by
lingering storm surge from Florence. The lower Cape Fear near
Wilmington may exceed 8 ft MLLW this afternoon, with significant
impacts to many locations, including shutting down the
northbound side of US 421 near the Battleship USS North
Carolina.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-
     024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
     High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for SCZ054-056.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-
     099-105>110.
     High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for NCZ106-108-
     110.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RGZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1035 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

AMZ250-252-254-171445-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
1035 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 379 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

Small Craft Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-058-059-171445-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Inland New Hanover-
Inland Brunswick-Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-
Central Horry-Northern Horry-
1035 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 379 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Prolonged, significant major to record flooding is expected along
many area rivers and their tributaries for at least the next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ106-108-110-SCZ054-171445-
Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-Coastal Brunswick-Coastal Horry-
1035 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 379 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

Prolonged, significant major to record flooding is expected along
many area rivers and their tributaries for at least the next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SCZ039-055-171445-
Williamsburg-Inland Georgetown-
1035 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Prolonged, significant major to record flooding is expected along
many area rivers and their tributaries for at least the next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

AMZ256-171445-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
1035 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SCZ056-171445-
Coastal Georgetown-
1035 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

Prolonged, significant major to record flooding is expected along
many area rivers and their tributaries for at least the next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1025 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

SCZ054-058-161445-
Coastal Horry SC-Central Horry SC-
1025 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AS A HEAVY SHOWER MOVES ONSHORE...

At 1024 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a shower with gusty winds
near Myrtle Beach, moving north at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this shower.

Locations impacted include...
Myrtle Beach, Hand, Barefoot Landing Area Of North Myrtle Beach and
Grand Strand Regional Medical Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storm passes.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for northeastern
South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3387 7889 3390 7880 3377 7876 3372 7885
TIME...MOT...LOC 1424Z 168DEG 36KT 3369 7879

TRA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1027 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ENE MARION            34.18N  79.38W
09/16/2018                   MARION             SC   MEDIA

            FLOODING IN STREETS AND AT BUSINESSES ALONG US-76 NEAR
            METAL ST

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1800290

OLIVA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1125 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

NCZ096-161630-
Bladen NC-
1125 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS BLADEN COUNTY...

At 1125 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking showers and thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Bladen Community College to Council.
Movement was north at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Elizabethtown, Bladen Community College, Lisbon, Duart, Ammon,
Council, Tobermory, Ruskin, White Oak, Jerome, White Lake, Dublin,
Tar Heel and Bladen County Hospital.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storms pass.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for southeastern
North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3484 7849 3483 7847 3481 7846 3438 7842
      3464 7882 3469 7881 3474 7886 3484 7890
      3485 7880 3485 7849
TIME...MOT...LOC 1525Z 165DEG 15KT 3464 7879 3441 7845

TRA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1225 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1216 PM     WATER SPOUT      1 SSE MYRTLE BEACH      33.68N  78.89W
09/16/2018                   AMZ254             SC   MEDIA

            LOCAL MEDIA SPOTTED THE WATERSPOUT ON THEIR WEBCAM IN
            MYRTLE BEACH, SC.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1800291

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1231 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1222 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 NNW MYRTLE BEACH      33.71N  78.90W
09/16/2018                   HORRY              SC   MEDIA

            MEDIA REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD AT HWY-17 AT JOE WHITE
            AVENUE IN MYRTLE BEACH, SC.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1800292

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
115 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 NE MYRTLE BEACH       33.72N  78.87W
09/16/2018                   HORRY              SC   SOCIAL MEDIA

            FUNNEL CLOUD CAPTURED ON SOCIAL MEDIA VIDEO JUST NORTH
            OF MYRTLE BEACH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1800293

OLIVA