Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
635 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression Florence will drift west across South
Carolina. This will continue to bring occasional bands of
heavy rainfall onshore into SE NC and NE SC. A drying trend
is expected to commence in the upcoming week, but river
flooding will remain hazardous.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 5 PM Sunday...Tornado Watch dropped for Pender, New
Hanover, Brunswick counties, and the 0-20 nm coastal waters, but
extended until 11 pm for much of NE SC and several counties in
SE NC as strong and moist low level flow prevails into evening.

As of 3 PM Sunday...Trailing spiral bands around finally-
exiting Tropical Depression Florence will impact parts of the
area overnight. Model signals indicate some banding is left to
stream south to north overnight before moving out of the area
Monday morning. Torrential rainfall in these bands will easily
be capable of producing another 3-5 inches...or locally higher
amounts. The Flash Flood Watch has been extended through 12Z
Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Remnants of Florence will move through the
OH Valley on Mon and across the Mid-Atlantic Mon night into Tue.
Light to moderate convection will linger over the region Mon as
left over moisture and instability lead to diurnal convection.
Convection is likely to shift offshore Mon night as the
nocturnal marine convection picks up. Temperatures Mon will be
near climo while lows run as much as 10 degrees above climo. The
remnant low will drag a trough into and across the area late
Tue and Tue night as the low moves from the Mid-Atlantic states
into New England. Isolated afternoon and evening convection will
again be a concern Tue, but coverage will be decreased by mid-
level dry air and late timing of weak forcing along the
aforementioned trough. Temperatures above climo on Tue and well
above climo Tue night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Models are in good agreement that an upper
trough exiting the east coast will be pushing a cold front
trough the CWA by the start of this period, 12Z Wednesday. This
front will bring the first day of no appreciable rain chance
since Florence approached the area last Thursday. Although post
frontal air mass will not be too cold, a drop in highs and lows
by a couple degrees is probable. Just not having any rain
through the remainder of the week is the great news to be
talking about thanks to an upper level ridge tracking overhead
from west to east.

Moving into next weekend, forecast uncertainty becomes greater.
Although both the GFS and ECMWF generally show an upper ridge
centered in the Atlantic just offshore, the strength they depict is
different. While the ECMWF shows a strong ridge will keep the local
area dry thru Sunday, the GFS' solution shows a weaker ridge that
allows convection to move in from the west. Decided to go with a
blend of those models for POPS, which yields low end rain
chances

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 00Z...Several rain bands will continue to dump heavy rain
through a good portion of the overnight hours. LBT stands to get the
brunt of the rain, but it will affect the other terminals as well.
As the remnants of Florence weaken and move away from the CWA,
conditions will improve with VFR expected sometime on Monday.

Extended Outlook...Gradual improvement east to west into
Monday. VFR Tue-Thurs.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
through Monday morning in wake of departing Tropical Depression
Florence. Seas continue to run 7 to 9 ft with onshore flow
running on the high end of the 20 to 25 kt range. Occasional
gusts in excess of 30 kt can be expected through the evening and
overnight. Conditions will gradually improve, although that is
relative.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Winds will remain generally south-southwest
through Tuesday evening between high pressure to the northeast,
and the remnants of Florence, which will be lifting across the
northeast CONUS and Mid-Atlantic as a frontal system. The front
is expected to push off the coast late Tuesday night, with a
wind shift to the northwest. Perhaps a weak, brief surge with
the front, but overall the gradient looks to remain modest.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...High pressure will build across the Mid-
Atlantic and off the northeast CONUS through the period. Winds
will veer from north to southeast, generally 15 knots or less.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Significant coastal flooding is expected
along the lower portions of the Cape Fear River late this
afternoon and evening. River levels remain elevated as runoff
from excessive, heavy rainfall flows into rivers already swollen
by lingering storm surge from Florence. The lower Cape Fear
near Wilmington may exceed 8 ft MLLW this afternoon, with
significant impacts to many locations, including shutting down
the northbound side of US 421 near the Battleship USS North
Carolina.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
     High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for SCZ054-056.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
     High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for NCZ106-108-
     110.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...8
NEAR TERM...CRM/8
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...ME
AVIATION...43 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...III

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
649 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

AMZ250-252-254-256-172300-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
649 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ087-096-099-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-058-059-172300-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-
Central Horry-Northern Horry-
649 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
...TORNADO WATCH 379 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Prolonged, significant major to record flooding is expected along
many area rivers and their tributaries for at least the next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ106-108-110-SCZ056-172300-
Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-Coastal Brunswick-
Coastal Georgetown-
649 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ107-172300-
Inland New Hanover-
649 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Warning.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Prolonged, significant major to record flooding is expected along
many area rivers and their tributaries for at least the next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ105-109-SCZ039-055-172300-
Inland Pender-Inland Brunswick-Williamsburg-Inland Georgetown-
649 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SCZ054-172300-
Coastal Horry-
649 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
...TORNADO WATCH 379 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Flash Flood Watch.

Prolonged, significant major to record flooding is expected along
many area rivers and their tributaries for at least the next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

8

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
442 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNE HARTSVILLE        34.38N  80.08W
09/16/2018                   DARLINGTON         SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            5TH STREET IN HARTSVILLE IS CLOSED DUE TO FLASH
            FLOODING IN DARLINGTON COUNTY FROM PINEWOOD AVE TO
            SUNOCO RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1800384

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
443 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ENE NORTH HARTSVILLE  34.40N  80.06W
09/16/2018                   DARLINGTON         SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            PATRICK HWY IS CLOSED DUE TO FLASH FLOOSING FROM
            OUSEYDALE TO ANTIOCH RD IN NORTH HARTSVILLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1800386

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
444 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 ESE ALLSBROOK         34.01N  78.93W
09/15/2018                   HORRY              SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            DAISY RD CLOSED EAST OF CANE BRANCH RD DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1800387

OLIVA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
445 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DARLINGTON              34.30N  79.87W
09/16/2018                   DARLINGTON         SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            CASHUA ST IN DARLINGTON IS FLOODED FROM PUBLIC SQUARE
            TO BLACK CREEK BRIDGE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1800388

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
446 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 N LONGS               34.02N  78.75W
09/15/2018                   HORRY              SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            POND RD FROM CAMP SWAMP RD TO OLD BUCK CREED RD CLOSED
            DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1800389

OLIVA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
739 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0929 PM     TORNADO          1 NE BAYSHORE           34.30N  77.78W
09/15/2018                   NEW HANOVER        NC   NWS STORM SURVEY

            A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
            PORTERS NECK ROAD BETWEEN PORTERS NECK ROAD AND TIBBYS
            DRIVE. THE TORNADO MOVED NW FOR LESS THAN 2 MINUTES AND
            SNAPPED A COUPLE DOZEN TREES UP TO 16" IN DIAMETER AND
            UPROOTED A FEW LARGE TREES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1800390

21