Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
257 PM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A well-deserved drier and seasonably warm airmass arrives to begin
the work week.  Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected
on Wednesday as a cold front settles into the area from the north.
Drier and seasonable conditions return for Thursday behind the
front before temperatures, humidity, and chances for showers and
thunderstorms increase Friday through Sunday as another cold front
approaches the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 255 PM Sunday: Another warm day has evolved across
northeast GA and the western Carolinas, as latest obs are
showing temperatures well into the mid to upper 80s. With an
upper trough moving across the Great Lakes region and it's
associated cold front draped down through eastern KY/TN and into
AL/LA, expect another late afternoon/evening of isolated to
scattered convection as the front propagates from west to east
this evening into tonight. Latest radar imagery already shows a
few isolated showers and thunderstorms that have developed
across the mountains and Upstate within the past hour. With
continued downslope flow, a developing leeside trough, SB CAPE
1500-2500 J/kg, steep low level lapse rates and 0-6km bulk shear
up to 30 kts across portions of the area - the potential for a
few severe thunderstorms will continue across the western half
of the CWA into early this evening.

With the loss of daytime heating, expect convection to wane as it
nears the I-77 corridor this evening, though would not entirely rule
out a few showers/thunderstorms reaching the CLT area before all is
said and done. The cold front will push through tonight, allowing
for drier air to infiltrate in with sfc high pressure building in
from the west for the beginning of the work week. Expect Monday will
be the first rain-free day that we've seen in awhile across the area
with plenty of sunshine and temperatures around to just above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sunday: Dry and comparatively cool weather is
expected to continue through the first half of the short term,
as an upper trough axis persists along the East Coast. A weak
boundary dropping into the area from the north on Wednesday may
provide a focus for some isolated diurnal convection, although
guidance is in rather good agreement that moisture and
instability will be difficult to come by. Temps will be near to
slightly below normal through Tue night, warming to slightly
above normal Wed afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 PM Sunday: By Wednesday evening, the longwave trough
axis will be east of the region with the post-frontal surface high
pressure center moving off the Mid-Atlantic coastline.  The surface
ridge axis will settle across the area into Thursday while heights
gradually build aloft as the Southern Plains heat ridge slowly
builds eastward.  Weak low-level flow and the upper-level ridge axis
overhead should work to limit convection on Thursday, and while the
official forecast keeps the area completely dry per the ECMWF and
Canadian solutions, the GFS is a little faster in veering surface
winds SEly and advecting enough flow and moisture to trigger some
afternoon convection.  Nevertheless, high temperatures are expected
to near normal on Thursday before the airmass begins to modify as
the upper-level ridge axis strengthens and southerly flow returns.
This should allow isolated to widely scattered diurnal convection
to return for Friday afternoon as a strong shortwave drops into
the Midwest embedded within the NW flow aloft.  The associated
cold front will sag into the Ohio Valley on Saturday as a repeat
convective performance is expected across the area; however,
by Sunday, moisture pooling ahead of the front combined with the
proximity of the front and aforementioned shortwave energy will
bring better chances for showers and thunderstorms across the
region.  At this time there is decent model agreement on dropping
the front into the area from north to south near the end of the
period or Monday morning.  In the meantime, given the pattern,
high temperatures will be slightly above normal for the weekend
with increasing humidity.  As dewpoints approach 70 degrees,
low temperatures, therefore, will become somewhat uncomfortable
Friday night through Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR prevails at all TAF sites this
afternoon with WNW winds and a healthy, growing CU field across the
FA as seen from latest satellite imagery. With a cold front draped
down through eastern TN/KY and back into NW AL, convection has
already begun to fire along this boundary. Expect this activity to
move from west to east as the cold front begins pushing across the
FA later this afternoon, starting within the next few hours. Expect
convection will wane into the evening hours as it approaches KCLT
around 01/02Z. Flight restrictions may briefly drop to MVFR in any
heavy downpours/stronger storms that move over a TAF site. Behind
the front, VFR will prevail through the remainder of the valid TAF
period as NW/downslope winds will persist with drier air
infiltrating in. Sfc high pressure building in from the west will
dominate the weather pattern through at least Monday evening. With
elevated boundary layer winds, do not anticipate fog development
overnight.

Outlook: Increasing chances for VCSH/VCTS towards the end of the
week. Otherwise, expect VFR.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...SGL
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...SGL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
430 AM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-040830-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
430 AM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the area this
afternoon and evening. Some of these storms will become severe with
damaging wind gusts and large hail. Gusty winds, cloud to ground
lightning, and brief, heavy rainfall will be possible with any
storm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
547 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2018

GAZ010-SCZ001-032215-
Rabun GA-Oconee Mountains SC-
547 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN RABUN AND NORTHERN
OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 547 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Walhalla, or near Oconee State Park, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Salem, Oconee State Park, Pine Mountain and Mountain Rest.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 8311 3490 8294 3476 8313 3489 8328
      3500 8328
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 314DEG 13KT 3491 8314

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
551 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             5 NW HENDERSONVILLE     35.37N 82.52W
06/03/2018  E1.00 INCH       HENDERSON          NC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT HWY 191 AND NORTH RUGBY RD.

&&

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
614 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MILLS RIVER             35.39N 82.57W
06/03/2018                   HENDERSON          NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED MULTIPLE LARGE TREES BLOWN DOWN
            ALONG HIGHWAY 191. COUNTY COMMS REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON A
            HOUSE IN MILLS RIVER.

&&

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
618 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E HENDERSONVILLE      35.32N 82.44W
06/03/2018                   HENDERSON          NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            NUMEROUS TREES BLOWN DOWN IN EAST HENDRSONVILLE AND TO
            THE EAST NEAR DANA.

&&

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
619 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2018

GAZ010-NCZ062-063-SCZ001-002-032245-
Rabun GA-Southern Jackson NC-Macon NC-Pickens Mountains SC-
Oconee Mountains SC-
619 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN RABUN...
SOUTHEASTERN MACON...SOUTH CENTRAL JACKSON...NORTHWESTERN PICKENS AND
NORTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 619 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles northeast of Clayton, or 4 miles south of Highlands, moving
southeast at 30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Highlands, Salem, Lake Keowee, Jocassee Gorges, Lake Jocassee, Devils
Fork State Park, Keowee Toxaway State Park, Oconee State Park, Sky
Valley and Mountain Rest.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3511 8325 3505 8304 3504 8303 3504 8302
      3503 8301 3503 8299 3497 8279 3481 8288
      3480 8291 3475 8298 3494 8334
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 295DEG 27KT 3500 8321

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
621 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2018

NCZ058-032245-
Graham NC-
621 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY UNTIL 645
PM EDT...

At 621 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles west of Robbinsville, or near Town Of Santeetlah, moving east
at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Robbinsville, Lake Santeetlah and Cheoah.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3536 8395 3539 8370 3525 8378 3526 8380
      3525 8381 3525 8387 3528 8397
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 282DEG 12KT 3531 8388

LANE