Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
247 PM EDT Sat Jun 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and moist airmass will persist through the weekend keeping
a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. A drier and
seasonable air mass will arrive behind a passing cold front early
next week. Moisture returns ahead of another cold front late in
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 2:15pm EDT Saturday:  Increased POPs for the round of showers
and thunderstorms currently under way as initial radar coverage is
running closer to the more optimistic HRRR.  Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon.  MLCAPE is
currently around 1500 j/kg with little wind shear.  Storms are
embedded in northwesterly flow on back side of system that brought a
surface trough through the area yesterday.  Though back side of
system is less favorable for convection, enough instability exists
for some thunder today, assisted by the passage of a weak frontal
boundary, with the greatest threat being severe wind gusts.

Weak frontal system will continue the process of veering the winds
and reducing moisture overnight.  However, airmass will recover some
in advance of next (and stronger) front that will be entering the
area Sunday afternoon.  This front will bring another chance for
diurnal showers and thunderstroms that will have about the same
level of CAPE to work with as today, but will have better focusing
along the front and slightly wind shear.  CAMs also have stronger
updrafts with some storms Sunday afternoon.

Temperatures will continue on the warm side through Sunday, running
about 10 degrees above normal.  Winds will remain relatively light
at 5 to 10 kts and become northwesterly this afternoon and a little
stronger with the FROPA Sunday afternoon/evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 225 pm Saturday: A much-welcomed pattern change will be
completed during the short term, as an anomalously strong long wave
trough sets up along the East Coast, resulting in a drying deep
northwest flow across the western Carolinas and northeast GA. Thus,
after lingering convection dissipates Sunday evening, the remainder
of the period will be convection-free. Although temps will be very
close to normal (perhaps a degree or two below climo), the more
significant change will be the 50s dewpoints, which will probably
feel downright pleasant after the last couple of weeks.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday: The extended forecast has not changed
significantly since the previous issuance.  On Wednesday, a
shortwave trough diving into the Lower Mississippi River Valley
will amplify a longwave trough over the eastern ConUS as a cold
front drops into the Mid-Atlantic.  Guidance is still bullish
on this front "backdooring" its way into the region during the
day on Wednesday, but it is also persistently keeping the weak
frontal passage mostly dry, save for an isolated shower or two
Wednesday afternoon/evening.  The forecast becomes more unsettled
later in the week as a strong ridge of high pressure sets up over
the Southern Plains while strong shortwave energy emerges from
the northern Rockies Thursday into Friday.  The associated cold
front is forecast to approach our region late Saturday into Sunday,
though it is of little surprise that guidance is not in agreement
on frontal timing or the coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
Nevertheless, moisture will increase Friday into Sunday as high
pressure shifts south and east of the southern Appalachians
and with rounds of energy embedded in the northwest flow aloft
ahead of the front, slight chance to chance pops predominate the
forecast area during this time.  High temperatures through the
period generally range from near normal to slightly above normal;
however, low temperatures will begin near-normal Wednesday morning
but increase each night through the extended to about 5-7 degrees
above normal by Sunday morning in response to the anticipated
increase in low-level moisture.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere:  Scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon are starting early with some lightning already on radar.
These showers will continue through the afternoon moving from the
northwest and becoming more numerous before dying around sunset.
Showers are in northwesterly flow aloft and will have some risk for
strong gusty outflows, mostly from the northwesterly direction, and
will also temporarily reduced visibility.  Winds will continue to
veer so as to become more northerly to northwesterly at 5 to 10 kts,
through the afternoon. Northwesterly flow will also reduce moisture
and have not included any fog for Sunday morning.

Outlook: Scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms, are
expected again on Sunday. Then drier high pressure will build in
from the NW on Monday, resulting in lower convective potential and
less potential for restrictions thru the middle of next week.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     Med   74%     High  94%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...WJM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
430 AM EDT Sat Jun 2 2018

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-030830-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
430 AM EDT Sat Jun 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening. While gusty winds, cloud to ground lightning, and brief,
heavy rainfall can be expected with any thunderstorm, one or two of
the storms could produce damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

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