Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

980 
WWUS52 KGSP 012152
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
552 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

NCC097-012202-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-180601T2230Z/
Iredell NC-
552 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN IREDELL COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area...therefore the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3589 8038 3588 8042 3586 8039 3584 8039
      3585 8042 3583 8043 3583 8046 3584 8047
      3583 8049 3581 8047 3579 8048 3577 8045
      3574 8046 3572 8039 3558 8041 3571 8072
      3577 8074 3591 8068
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 271DEG 22KT 3581 8058 

$$

NCC059-159-012230-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-180601T2230Z/
Davie NC-Rowan NC-
552 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN DAVIE AND NORTHWESTERN ROWAN COUNTIES...

At 552 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles south of
Mocksville, or near Cooleemee, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.

Locations impacted include...
Salisbury, Mocksville, Spencer, Granite Quarry, Cooleemee, Cleveland,
Fork Church, Piedmont Research Station and Woodleaf.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Scattered trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned
area. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3589 8038 3588 8042 3586 8039 3584 8039
      3585 8042 3583 8043 3583 8046 3584 8047
      3583 8049 3581 8047 3579 8048 3577 8045
      3574 8046 3572 8039 3558 8041 3571 8072
      3577 8074 3591 8068
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 271DEG 22KT 3581 8058 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MOORE

657 
WWUS52 KGSP 012211
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
611 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

NCC059-159-012221-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-180601T2230Z/
Davie NC-Rowan NC-
611 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN DAVIE AND
NORTHWESTERN ROWAN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3589 8038 3588 8042 3586 8039 3584 8039
      3585 8042 3583 8043 3583 8046 3584 8047
      3583 8049 3581 8047 3579 8048 3577 8045
      3574 8046 3572 8039 3558 8041 3571 8072
      3577 8074 3591 8068
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 280DEG 21KT 3579 8045 

$$

MOORE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
248 PM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A moist airmass will persist through the weekend keeping a chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. A drier and seasonable
air mass will arrive behind a passing cold front early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 pm: The diurnal convective cycle remains slow to get
started this afternoon, probably due to residual thermo and dynamic
effects of the MCS that dissipated across the southern Appalachians
early today (a reservoir of slightly lower dewpoints developed
across the heart of the CWA earlier this afternoon, but it's showing
signs of giving way). In fact, even the cu field is looking very
uninspired in visible satellite imagery early this afternoon.
Nevertheless, CAM guidance continues  to initiate some cells within
weak lee trough across the NC foothills and far western Piedmont
within the next couple of hours. Meanwhile, convection continues to
expand along remnant outflow boundary and just north of robust CAPE
axis across NW Georgia and northern AL. This activity should
continue to push steadily east, and probably reach the Upper
Savannah River Valley during late afternoon. Would expect the high
terrain to eventually get in on the act as well, but CAMs remain
quite stingy with any ridge top development, so the highest pops (50
percent) will be reserved for the SC/GA border areas and the NC
Piedmont.

Deep layer shear will begin increasing from the west this evening,
but for the most part, severe convective mode should be limited to
pulse cells, or perhaps some small-scale multicell clustering. In
terms of any lingering hydro threat, it's looking more and more as
if the better coverage will remain east and south of the areas with
the most dire antecedent conditions, which is certainly good news,
but still cannot completely rule out a risk of localized flash
flooding.

Convection will diminish this evening in typical fashion, although a
low level NW flow developing in the wake of a mid-level short wave
trough could allow for the occasional shower along the Tennessee
border. Min temps will continue to run a few degrees above normal.
With weak subsidence developing downstream of a TN/OH Valley short
wave ridge, along with weak downslope flow, deep convection may
initially have a tough go of it on Saturday. However, forecast
soundings indicate more than ample instability, with little
inhibition. As such, scattered convection should eventually fire
along across the ridge tops and move southeast, warranting 30-50
pops across the mountains, and 20-30 across the Piedmont. max temps
will be similar to today's readings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 2:35 PM Friday: The first part of this forecast cycle should
feature an end to lingering showers and thunderstorms Saturday
evening. This is a result of the diurnal cycle ending and the first
upper level trough shifting off to the east.

We may have a short period of upper level ridging late Saturday
night into Sunday morning. But that will be short lived as a second
trough digs rapidly (northwesterly flow aloft )into our forecast
area (FA), roughly late Sunday morning into Sunday evening. This
upper level trough will be accompanied by a secondary cold front.

The combination of frontal convergence and a decent lobe of energy
with the system, should tap residual moisture allowing for updrafts
and scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. CAPES remain
very respectable, between 1000-2000 J/KG, and 0-6km bulk shear is up
at around 30 kts. However, there is a fair amount of inhibition, and
potential warm layer persisting. We have edged the POPS Sunday up
slightly and will watch for later changes in the convective
parameters.

The showers and thunderstorms should wane Sunday evening, with dry
conditions by Monday morning.

We should remain generally under a northwest flow aloft Monday with
dry conditions. The exception might be in our northern NC mountains
with a cool pool, and a combination of lingering moisture. As a
result we will carry a few showers Monday afternoon.

Final note on the shower and thunderstorm potential in this period:
it appears showers and thunderstorms will be moving along, based on
sounding information. However we will monitor any slowing of the
showers and storms which might cause a local flash flood threat.

In the temperature department, the thermal profiles are showing a
nice warm-up Sunday, before the frontal passage. Following into
Monday we should shave at least a few degrees (at least) in
comparison to Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Friday: Much drier air continues to filter across the
region Monday night and Tuesday on both the GFS and ECMWF. The GFS
has surface high pressure centered over the SE States late Tuesday.
A backdoor cool front drops down mid week but timing is different
from GFS and EC. The EC keeps us dry through the late week although
low pressure over north Florida to offshore SC brings some moisture
near piedmont at the end of the week. The GFS now has increasing
moisture late in the week with the backdoor front stalling over our
area Thursday with a shortwave dropping down from NW on Friday with
good coverage of convection to start the weekend. Since this is the
first run with this increased moisture, will hold off and only
increase POPs just a tad. Temps near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The convective cycle has been slow to get
going across the area this afternoon, and based upon the appearance
of the cumulus field, we're probably still a couple of hours or so
away from seeing any appreciable coverage of showers and storms. I
still think we'll see scattered coverage develop across the
foothills/far western Piedmont by mid-afternoon, which will then
move east to impact locations near KCLT by late afternoon/early
evening. This is the only site that receives a tempo for TSRA. With
less certainty elsewhere, the convective mention is limited to VCTS
from 20Z/21Z into the evening hours. Convection will diminish by
late evening. Occurrence of fog and/or low stratus late tonight/
early Saturday will hinge largely on which, if any sites receive
significant rainfall later today. Since that's not at all clear, no
overnight restrictions are carried attm. SW winds at around 10 kts
are expected through the evening at most sites, becoming light
overnight before shifting to the W/NW tomorrow morning.

Outlook: Scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms,
along with possible morning fog at a few locations and/or low cigs
are possible each day through Sunday night. Drier high pressure will
build in from the NW Monday, resulting in even less chances for
convection and restrictions thru the middle of next week.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  96%     High  99%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JDL

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
514 AM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-020900-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
514 AM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the area this
afternoon and evening. In addition to the continued threat of
localized flash flooding, a few of the storms will be capable of
producing severe weather in the form of damaging downburst winds
and large hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning will be
possible with any storm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
428 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW LENOIR             35.87N 81.60W
06/01/2018                   CALDWELL           NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN AROUND THE HWY 18 AND ROCKY ROAD
            AREA. DEBRIS BLOCKING ROADWAY ALONG WITH URBAN FLOODING
            CONDITIONS.

&&

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
442 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

GAZ017-018-026-028-SCZ001-004-012130-
Hart GA-Franklin GA-Stephens GA-Habersham GA-Greater Oconee SC-
Oconee Mountains SC-
442 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT FRANKLIN...STEPHENS...SOUTHERN
HABERSHAM...NORTHWESTERN HART AND SOUTHWESTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL
530 PM EDT...

At 441 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Homer, or near Lula, moving east at 45 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Toccoa, Hartwell, Carnesville, Cornelia, Baldwin, Westminster,
Lavonia, Gumlog, Mount Airy and Alto.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3474 8311 3450 8297 3448 8299 3448 8296
      3435 8288 3431 8338 3433 8339 3443 8338
      3446 8340 3448 8347 3449 8354 3443 8362
      3451 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 251DEG 39KT 3440 8365

WJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
501 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 S FOREST CITY         35.26N 81.88W
06/01/2018                   RUTHERFORD         NC   911 CALL CENTER

            A FEW TREES BLOWN DOWN ON JACK MCKINNEY ROAD NEAR HWY
            221.

&&

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
502 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

NCZ035>037-056-057-012145-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-Iredell NC-Alexander NC-Catawba NC-
502 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CATAWBA...
WESTERN DAVIE...SOUTHEASTERN ALEXANDER...IREDELL AND NORTHWESTERN
ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 502 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 12 miles southwest of
Yadkinville to 4 miles north of Statesville to 12 miles northeast of
Newton, and moving east at 30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Statesville, Mocksville, Troutman, Stony Point, Catawba, Harmony,
Love Valley, Lake Norman State Park, Lookout Shoals Lake and Lake
Norman.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, dime size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3582 8056 3561 8091 3575 8117 3587 8107
      3606 8099 3605 8050 3604 8049 3606 8047
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 257DEG 25KT 3602 8083 3585 8089 3577 8105

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
505 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

GAZ029-SCZ011-019-012145-
Elbert GA-Abbeville SC-Greenwood SC-
505 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ELBERT...SOUTHERN
ABBEVILLE AND SOUTHWESTERN GREENWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 505 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southeast of Elberton, or near Nancy Hart State Park, moving
east at 45 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Abbeville, Calhoun Falls, Troy, Bobby Brown State Park, Lake Strom
Thurmond, Nancy Hart State Park, Lake Russell, Middleton, Promised
Land and Bradley.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3398 8205 3399 8215 3397 8218 3402 8224
      3397 8231 3406 8233 3406 8244 3408 8248
      3407 8253 3401 8260 3396 8257 3399 8265
      3397 8278 3399 8283 3398 8286 3401 8292
      3431 8240 3396 8201 3395 8205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 248DEG 38KT 3402 8272

WJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
509 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             5 WSW CLIFFSIDE         35.22N 81.85W
06/01/2018  E0.75 INCH       RUTHERFORD         NC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL.

&&

KRENTZ