Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

515 
WWUS52 KGSP 010031
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
831 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

NCC021-087-115-010100-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-180601T0100Z/
Madison NC-Haywood NC-Buncombe NC-
831 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR MADISON...NORTHEASTERN HAYWOOD AND NORTHWESTERN BUNCOMBE
COUNTIES...

At 830 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles south of
Marshall, or 4 miles north of Leicester, moving southeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.

Locations impacted include...
Marshall, North Asheville, Woodfin, Weaverville, Mars Hill, Hot
Springs, Leicester, Max Patch, Faust and Allenstand.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Scattered trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned
area. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

This storms is also producing extremely heavy rainfall. Flooding of
drainage ditches and low lying areas may occur. Small streams will
rise rapidly. Do not drive through areas where water is flowing over
the road.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3599 8260 3597 8261 3595 8257 3597 8251
      3591 8249 3589 8245 3582 8241 3582 8237
      3576 8234 3562 8256 3555 8284 3577 8305
      3579 8304 3578 8299 3584 8292 3594 8290
      3595 8285 3593 8281 3600 8278 3602 8273
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 309DEG 46KT 3571 8271 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MOORE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
803 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A moist airmass will persist into Friday, with a couple of
rounds of thunderstorms crossing the region from the west in the
afternoon and evening. Slightly drier air will work in from the west
on Saturday, but with a brief return of moisture by late weekend.
Better drying will arrive behind a passing cold front in the early
to middle part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND NC FOOTHILLS REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT

As of 2pm EDT Thursday:  Round of showers and thunderstorms
currently underway with precipitation over much of Western North
Carolina , Northeast GA, and the foothills.  Showers will continue
into the evening, moving southeastward across the area.  Current
activity is related to upper wave cross the region with some
dynamical forcing.  Precipitable water values are down several
tenths of an inch from recent days, but with this upper support,
some heavy rain showers are still possible.  This wave is reinforced
by a second wave on Friday.  By Friday afternoon, a surface front
related to these upper waves will be come better defined and will
begin moving across the CWA. Surface front and better upper wave
will increase the strength of the wind profile and provide better
dynamical support for showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon.
Friday showers; however, will be faster moving and will leave behind
less precipitation that what we will see today.  With some
improvement in the flooding conditions expected through Friday
morning, a Flash Flood Watch for Friday afternoon/evening does not
seem justified at this point.  However, it might be considered if
enough areas get appreciable rainfall this afternoon.  The Flash
Flood watch for this afternoon/tonight still looks good, but has
been trimmed 6 hours at the end as shower activity will decline
considerably by early Friday morning.

With some upper support on Friday, both shear and instability
increase, and chances for severe weather go up a notch with the
Friday storms.  Deep layer shear improves to 15kt, with CAPE to 1500
j/kg.  Shear is still too weak for much of a tornado threat, but
chances for severe outflows and some hail exist.  Any strong winds
from storm outflows could cause numerous tree falls as tree roots
have been weakened from recent rains. Following the round of thunder
on Friday, the passage of the front will bring dewpoints and chances
for precipitation down considerably.  Dewpoints decline 4 degrees by
Friday night. Temperatures will remain generally warm and humid
through Friday, however.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 225 pm Thursday: The transition to a less tropical, more
typical late spring/early summer warm/humid regime will be completed
during the short term. Nevertheless, the pattern will remain quite
active, with a series of short wave troughs and attendant surface
features providing a focus for at least scattered diurnal convective
activity Sat and Sunday. Meanwhile, westerly deep layer flow will
allow for some modified elevated mixed layer air to filter into the
region, with mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km progged through the
weekend. This will result in substantial sbCAPE each day, with
maximum afternoon values likely reaching at least 2500 J/kg. Thus,
while there may be less overall coverage of convection, especially
on Saturday, there will be higher potential for strong to severe
updrafts. This will most likely be in the form of pulse storms on
Saturday, when the deep layer shear will remain relatively weak, but
with more of a multicellular (if not something even more organized)
threat on Sunday, as deep layer shear increases to 30 to 40 kts
southeast of a robust short wave trough/upper low moving across the
Great Lakes. Although antecedent hydrologic conditions should
continue to gradually improve, a localized flash flood threat will
continue along the Blue Ridge into the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 210 PM Thursday: Much drier air will filter into the region
behind a cold front Monday morning. The GFS is more robust with the
deep 500mb low moving ESE from the Great Lakes on Monday. The EC has
this feature more north and weaker. Both models take this low across
PA and New Jersey Tuesday and Tuesday night and enough shortwave
energy should affect the NC Mountains and somewhat less effects for
the foothills and piedmont. Certainly needs slight to low chance
POPs as it passes. Drier air again returns after the low moves off
the East Coast. A weak backdoor cold front drops down Wednesday or
Thursday but currently not expected to have much affect on our
weather. Going with a dry forecast Wednesday and Thursday.
Will need to watch the weak low over the NE Gulf and how it
influences our weather mid to late week. Temperatures will be near
or even a little below normal through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: An extensive line of convection is currently
moving south and east of the area, as another line of convection
crosses the NC/TENN border and moves into the northern mtns. It's not
clear how long this second line of thunderstorms will survive, but
based on its current trajectory, it could impact KAVL, KHKY, and
KCLT over the next few hours. Like the past few days, I expect another
round of visby and cig restrictions at all sites for the overnight
and early morning hours. Although the bndy layer moisture will start
to decline early tomorrow, the additional rainfall the area just
received should make fog and low cigs much more likely. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms is possible again tomorrow afternoon
and evening beginning around 18Z or so. These storms will be occurring
along and ahead of a front that will keep surface winds SWLY to WLY.

Outlook: Slightly drier air will filter into the area over the weekend.
However, scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms, along
with possible morning fog at a few locations and/or low cigs are possible
each day through early next week.

Confidence Table...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High  95%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     Med   79%     High  99%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High  87%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High  95%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Friday for GAZ010-017.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Friday for NCZ033-048>053-058-
     059-062>065-501>510.
SC...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Friday for SCZ001>003.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT/WJM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JPT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
353 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-
012000-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
353 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue across much of the
area through this evening. A few of the storms will be capable of
producing severe weather in the form of damaging downburst winds and
large hail. Otherwise, torrential rainfall and frequent cloud to
ground lightning will be possible with any storm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-012000-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
353 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue across much of the
mountains and foothills through this evening. In addition to the
continued threat of localized flash flooding, a few of the storms
will be capable of producing severe weather in the form of damaging
downburst winds and large hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning
will be possible with any storm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Lane

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
726 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NE IVA                34.36N 82.58W
05/31/2018                   ANDERSON           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SCHP REPORTED A TREE DOWN AT HIGHWAY 413 AND ABBEVILLE
            HIGHWAY

0525 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW RUTHERFORDTON     35.36N 81.98W
05/31/2018                   RUTHERFORD         NC   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CALL CENTER REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON NC 108

0516 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW RUTHERFORDTON     35.39N 81.97W
05/31/2018                   RUTHERFORD         NC   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CALL CENTER REPORTED  TREE AND POWER LINES DOWN ON
            CHIMNEY ROCK RD.

0458 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW GREEN HILL        35.43N 82.11W
05/31/2018                   RUTHERFORD         NC   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CALL CENTER REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON COVE CREEK DR.

0435 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WOODLAWN                35.79N 82.04W
05/31/2018                   MCDOWELL           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CALL CENTER REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON 226 N NEAR
            WOODLAWN.

&&

LEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
736 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W GASTONIA            35.25N 81.19W
05/31/2018                   GASTON             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED CATAWBA CREEK OVERFLOWED ITS
            BANKS NEAR WEST GARRISON BLVD.

&&

LEC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
739 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

NCZ033-048>050-010045-
Yancey NC-Madison NC-Mitchell NC-Avery NC-
739 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MADISON...MITCHELL...
AVERY AND YANCEY COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

At 738 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southwest of Erwin, or 12 miles southeast of Tusculum, moving
east at 25 mph. Several other strong thunderstorms in northeast
Tennessee will move over the northern mountains of North Carolina
through the mid evening.

Locations to be impacted include...
Spruce Pine, Burnsville, Newland, Mars Hill, Banner Elk, Hot Springs,
Elk Park, Bakersville, Beech Mountain In Avery County and Crossnore.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3621 8190 3610 8177 3591 8198 3580 8216
      3585 8292 3594 8290 3593 8281 3600 8278
      3606 8264 3603 8259 3597 8261 3595 8256
      3601 8246 3609 8240 3613 8230 3616 8220
      3615 8215 3611 8213 3612 8203 3629 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 286DEG 21KT 3604 8262

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
742 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

SCZ009-014-010030-
York SC-Chester SC-
742 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CHESTER AND SOUTHEASTERN
YORK COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

At 742 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles east of Rock
Hill to 12 miles north of Winnsboro, and moving southeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Rock Hill, Chester, Fort Mill, Lesslie, Great Falls, Fort Lawn,
Richburg, Chester State Park, Catawba and Blackstock.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

&&

LAT...LON 3464 8090 3455 8087 3454 8093 3456 8126
      3486 8121 3507 8091 3501 8091 3499 8089
      3492 8086 3490 8088 3484 8087 3483 8090
      3479 8088 3470 8086
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 299DEG 14KT 3490 8087 3455 8112

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
751 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW SPARTANBURG       34.95N 81.93W
05/31/2018                   SPARTANBURG        SC   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CALL CENTER REPORTED A FEW TREES DOWN AROUND
            SPARTANBURG.

&&

LEC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
812 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-010100-
Buncombe NC-Haywood NC-Graham NC-Swain NC-Madison NC-
Northern Jackson NC-
812 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...
MADISON...SWAIN...NORTHEASTERN GRAHAM...HAYWOOD AND NORTHERN BUNCOMBE
COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

At 811 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a broken
line of thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles west of
Marshall to 11 miles northeast of Robbinsville, and moving southeast
at 30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Bryson City, Marshall, Waynesville, Cherokee, Woodfin, Lake
Junaluska, Weaverville, Mars Hill, Clyde and Maggie Valley.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

&&

LAT...LON 3556 8377 3556 8350 3566 8330 3576 8316
      3578 8299 3588 8290 3593 8292 3595 8287
      3593 8281 3600 8278 3606 8264 3603 8259
      3597 8261 3598 8251 3591 8249 3582 8241
      3581 8235 3572 8230 3527 8368 3551 8389
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 314DEG 27KT 3585 8284 3547 8372

MOORE