Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Glasgow, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
339 PM MDT Sat May 26 2018

.DISCUSSION...

The stage is set and the atmosphere is primed for the development
of some strong to severe thunderstorms beginning now and lasting
through tonight. Favorable shear profile, warm moist air at the
surface on a southeasterly flow, and an advancing cold front from
the southwest are all contributing to the threat for these severe
thunderstorms. Most of our CWA has been outlined for a slight risk
area from SPC all day long. Last mesoscale discussion calls for
60% chance of a severe thunderstorm watch being issued for this
area. Even now, isolated thunderstorms are breaking out over the
higher terrain of central Montana. Expect coverage and intensity
to increase with time this evening and tonight.

Sunday morning, as the last lingering storms slide eastward into
North Dakota and the cold front advances further, temperatures
will cool a bit. Sunday afternoon and evening, the front will not
have completely advanced all the way through the CWA. This will
leave an unstable atmosphere over our SE zones along the
Yellowstone River valley. Would not be surprised to see another
strong to marginally severe thunderstorms down there through the
evening and late night hours.

Monday through Tuesday, the large upper-level low pressure system
stalls over the Great Basin region, keeping a generally unsettled
weather pattern over NE Montana.

Wednesday, and brief calm period takes over, thanks to a weak
upper-level ridge over the area.

Thursday and beyond, another cold front will be the focus for more
thunderstorm development over the region.          BMickelson

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CAT: VFR to begin, becoming IFR or worse in severe
thunderstorms after 22Z.

DISCUSSION: Thunderstorms, with some becoming severe are expected
to impact the terminals in some way later this afternoon into the
overnight hours. Thunder should leave the area between 06Z to 09Z
but may linger just a bit longer near KSDY. Expect threat of
large hail and damaging winds. Some MVFR/IFR conditions are
expected with/near these impacts, especially if a TAF site is
directly under one of these thunderstorms.

WIND: Southeast at 10 to 15 kts in the afternoon. Erratic and
damaging winds in excess of 55 mph are possible near the stronger
storms between until 09Z overnight tonight. Winds will switch
around from the north behind thunderstorms tonight.

BMickelson

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
853 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2018

MTZ022-023-270400-
Garfield MT-McCone MT-
853 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GARFIELD...SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN MCCONE COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM MDT...

At 853 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southeast of The Pines Rec Area, or 32 miles northeast of
Jordan, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rock Creek Rec Area and Haxby.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM MDT for
northeastern Montana.

LAT...LON 4774 10582 4764 10640 4772 10664 4781 10658
      4783 10656 4785 10656 4785 10653 4788 10654
      4788 10651 4790 10653 4792 10651 4791 10650
      4792 10650 4799 10584
TIME...MOT...LOC 0253Z 206DEG 11KT 4770 10651

Mottice

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
907 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0906 PM     HAIL             1 SE CIRCLE             47.41N 105.59W
05/26/2018  E1.00 INCH       MCCONE             MT   PUBLIC

            HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND INCREASING IN
            SIZE; STILL HAILING.

&&

AEH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
923 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2018

MTZ022-270415-
Garfield MT-
923 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL GARFIELD COUNTY
UNTIL 1015 PM MDT...

At 923 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles south of Edwards, or 31 miles southwest of Jordan, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central
Garfield County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM MDT for
northeastern Montana.

LAT...LON 4686 10738 4720 10727 4715 10674 4686 10707
TIME...MOT...LOC 0323Z 207DEG 22KT 4691 10720

Mottice

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
929 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2018

MTZ019-270415-
Sheridan MT-
929 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN DANIELS AND NORTHWESTERN
SHERIDAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM MDT...

At 929 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Redstone, or 18 miles west of Plentywood, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Plentywood, Redstone, Archer, Port Of Raymond, Outlook, Raymond and
Daleview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4879 10433 4868 10499 4874 10504 4888 10504
      4900 10475 4900 10449
TIME...MOT...LOC 0329Z 242DEG 27KT 4880 10496

Mottice

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
933 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2018

MTZ017-020-022-023-270430-
Garfield MT-Western Roosevelt MT-McCone MT-
Central and Southern Valley MT-
933 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GARFIELD...
SOUTHWESTERN ROOSEVELT...EAST CENTRAL VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN MCCONE
COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM MDT...

At 933 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Nashua, or 13 miles southeast of Glasgow, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Nashua, Fort Peck, Frazer, Oswego and Park Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM MDT for
northeastern Montana.

LAT...LON 4797 10645 4825 10649 4839 10585 4799 10584
TIME...MOT...LOC 0333Z 256DEG 21KT 4812 10637

Mottice

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
943 PM MDT SAT MAY 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     HAIL             1 ESE RICHEY            47.64N 105.05W
05/26/2018  M1.00 INCH       DAWSON             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MORE SMALL HAIL, DIMES, BUT QUARTERS CURRENTLY FALLING
            WITH HEAVY RAIN.

&&

BRANDONB