Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Glasgow, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
339 PM MDT Sat May 26 2018

.DISCUSSION...

The stage is set and the atmosphere is primed for the development
of some strong to severe thunderstorms beginning now and lasting
through tonight. Favorable shear profile, warm moist air at the
surface on a southeasterly flow, and an advancing cold front from
the southwest are all contributing to the threat for these severe
thunderstorms. Most of our CWA has been outlined for a slight risk
area from SPC all day long. Last mesoscale discussion calls for
60% chance of a severe thunderstorm watch being issued for this
area. Even now, isolated thunderstorms are breaking out over the
higher terrain of central Montana. Expect coverage and intensity
to increase with time this evening and tonight.

Sunday morning, as the last lingering storms slide eastward into
North Dakota and the cold front advances further, temperatures
will cool a bit. Sunday afternoon and evening, the front will not
have completely advanced all the way through the CWA. This will
leave an unstable atmosphere over our SE zones along the
Yellowstone River valley. Would not be surprised to see another
strong to marginally severe thunderstorms down there through the
evening and late night hours.

Monday through Tuesday, the large upper-level low pressure system
stalls over the Great Basin region, keeping a generally unsettled
weather pattern over NE Montana.

Wednesday, and brief calm period takes over, thanks to a weak
upper-level ridge over the area.

Thursday and beyond, another cold front will be the focus for more
thunderstorm development over the region.          BMickelson

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CAT: VFR to begin, becoming IFR or worse in severe
thunderstorms after 22Z.

DISCUSSION: Thunderstorms, with some becoming severe are expected
to impact the terminals in some way later this afternoon into the
overnight hours. Thunder should leave the area between 06Z to 09Z
but may linger just a bit longer near KSDY. Expect threat of
large hail and damaging winds. Some MVFR/IFR conditions are
expected with/near these impacts, especially if a TAF site is
directly under one of these thunderstorms.

WIND: Southeast at 10 to 15 kts in the afternoon. Erratic and
damaging winds in excess of 55 mph are possible near the stronger
storms between until 09Z overnight tonight. Winds will switch
around from the north behind thunderstorms tonight.

BMickelson

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow

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