Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
642 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

With the exception of a few storms between Mahnomen and Bemidji,
and a few others moving in around Rugby, there is still a bit of a
lull in activity right now. Still expect more of an upswing in
activity by mid to late evening, in the 8 to 10 pm time frame,
which would last into the early morning hours of Monday. Still
pretty hard to pinpoint exactly where and when, so all areas
still have a chance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

Watching ongoing convection, so will keep the discussion brief.
Seeing intensifying activity over far southeast ND right now, with
satellite imagery correlating the growing clouds. SPC put out a
mesoscale discussion a short while ago, talking about a potential
watch for the southern third of our FA. This growing convection
may push this watch into a quick reality. Latest HRRR runs have
been showing other activity firing over the Red River Valley by 8
to 9 pm, and lasting until just past midnight. They no longer show
any activity pushing in from western ND. So will see how things
play out tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

Rain chances return Monday night into early Tuesday across the area
as a shortwave trough moves into the region and a low pressure
system skirts by to the south through the Central Plains. With
little instability present on the cool side of this system, suspect
this will be mainly shower activity with perhaps some embedded
thunder.

For Tuesday through Thursday, expect quiet and dry weather.
Temperatures will be notably cooler Tuesday and Wednesday as the
upper trough axis swings through the Plains and dry northwest flow
aloft develops. A warming trend develops from Wednesday to Friday in
warm air advection ahead of a system moving through the Canadian
Plains.

After a breezy day Thursday amidst pressure gradient winds, chances
for showers and thunderstorms develop Thursday night through Friday
night as a shortwave trough aloft and surface front pass through the
Northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

Still tried to hit the 8 pm to just past midnight time frame as
the prime hours for storm development. Not much happening right
now, but expect storms to blossom over the area in the next couple
of hours. Pretty hard to say exactly where and when, so all TAF
sites still have a chance. Activity should begin to wane a few
hours after midnight. These storms could also drop some heavy rain
at times.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...Godon

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
731 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-280045-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh County-
731 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected to become more numerous between 8 pm
tonight and 2 am Monday morning. These storms may produce hail up
to 2 inches in diameter (possibly larger), wind gusts to 75 mph,
tornadoes, and localized heavy rain. The greatest risk area for
tornadoes is over southeast North Dakota into west central
Minnesota. Areas along a line from Valley City to the Fargo
Moorhead area to Detroit Lakes have already had a lot of recent
rainfall, so they are especially susceptible to additional
rainfall tonight. However, any storms tonight could produce
locally heavy rainfall. Stay weather aware.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
544 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2018

MNZ022-027-028-262315-
West Becker MN-East Becker MN-Mahnomen MN-
544 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MAHNOMEN AND
NORTHWESTERN BECKER COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 543 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Callaway, or 13 miles northwest of Detroit Lakes, moving northeast at
40 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Callaway around 550 PM CDT.
  Richwood around 555 PM CDT.
  White Earth around 600 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4692 9604 4698 9609 4721 9571 4703 9556
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 238DEG 34KT 4699 9598

CJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
648 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2018

MNZ022-023-028-270015-
East Becker MN-Mahnomen MN-South Clearwater MN-
648 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAHNOMEN...NORTH
CENTRAL BECKER AND SOUTHWESTERN CLEARWATER COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM
CDT...

At 648 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Tulaby Lake, or 26 miles northeast of Detroit Lakes, moving northeast
at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Northeastern Many Point Lake around 650 PM CDT.
  Bad Medicine Lake around 710 PM CDT.
  Long Lost Lake around 715 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include northern Many Point
Scout Camp.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4709 9557 4717 9569 4731 9545 4714 9526
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 242DEG 18KT 4716 9560

CJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
650 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 PM     HAIL             WHITE EARTH             47.10N 95.84W
08/26/2018  E1.00 INCH       BECKER             MN   PUBLIC

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN

&&

BP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
802 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2018

NDZ006-007-014-015-270200-
Benson ND-Towner ND-Ramsey ND-Cavalier ND-
802 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BENSON...TOWNER...
WESTERN CAVALIER AND NORTHWESTERN RAMSEY COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 801 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Hansboro to near Baker. Movement was east
at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Hansboro and Amourdale around 805 PM CDT.
  Leeds around 825 PM CDT.
  Sarles around 840 PM CDT.
  Churchs Ferry around 845 PM CDT.
  Maza around 850 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4837 9984 4837 9949 4900 9953 4900 9873
      4821 9901 4816 9985
TIME...MOT...LOC 0101Z 258DEG 28KT 4897 9944 4821 9971

CJ