Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Grand Forks, ND

152 
WWUS53 KFGF 270522
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
1222 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

MNC007-077-089-135-270531-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0155.000000T0000Z-180827T0545Z/
Marshall MN-Roseau MN-Beltrami MN-Lake of the Woods MN-
1222 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN MARSHALL...ROSEAU...
NORTHERN BELTRAMI AND LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and have exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
north central and northwestern Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4935 9507 4937 9495 4933 9486 4932 9481
      4918 9479 4888 9468 4883 9471 4878 9469
      4872 9459 4869 9444 4870 9443 4821 9443
      4820 9602 4900 9607 4900 9516 4938 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 0519Z 274DEG 40KT 4913 9531 4823 9489 

$$

JK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1017 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1016 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

With a shortwave ejecting out into the Northern Plains and the low
level jet starting to ramp up, convection has been increasing in
coverage across much of the central and northern CWA. Storms have
been moving into the southern counties also but are more isolated
in coverage. MU CAPE is ranging from near 1500 J/kg in the north to
3000 in the south, and deep layer bulk shear is over 50 kts. A
severe thunderstorm watch has been issued to include the counties
to the north and east of the existing tornado watch as the storms
move eastward. CAM models have not been very consistent with
where they are taking the strongest cells, but have a general idea
of quite a bit of rain in the north and more hit and miss in the
south. Adjusted POPs accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

Watching ongoing convection, so will keep the discussion brief.
Seeing intensifying activity over far southeast ND right now, with
satellite imagery correlating the growing clouds. SPC put out a
mesoscale discussion a short while ago, talking about a potential
watch for the southern third of our FA. This growing convection
may push this watch into a quick reality. Latest HRRR runs have
been showing other activity firing over the Red River Valley by 8
to 9 pm, and lasting until just past midnight. They no longer show
any activity pushing in from western ND. So will see how things
play out tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

Rain chances return Monday night into early Tuesday across the area
as a shortwave trough moves into the region and a low pressure
system skirts by to the south through the Central Plains. With
little instability present on the cool side of this system, suspect
this will be mainly shower activity with perhaps some embedded
thunder.

For Tuesday through Thursday, expect quiet and dry weather.
Temperatures will be notably cooler Tuesday and Wednesday as the
upper trough axis swings through the Plains and dry northwest flow
aloft develops. A warming trend develops from Wednesday to Friday in
warm air advection ahead of a system moving through the Canadian
Plains.

After a breezy day Thursday amidst pressure gradient winds, chances
for showers and thunderstorms develop Thursday night through Friday
night as a shortwave trough aloft and surface front pass through the
Northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

Still tried to hit the 8 pm to just past midnight time frame as
the prime hours for storm development. Not much happening right
now, but expect storms to blossom over the area in the next couple
of hours. Pretty hard to say exactly where and when, so all TAF
sites still have a chance. Activity should begin to wane a few
hours after midnight. These storms could also drop some heavy rain
at times.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...Godon

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
731 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-280045-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh County-
731 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected to become more numerous between 8 pm
tonight and 2 am Monday morning. These storms may produce hail up
to 2 inches in diameter (possibly larger), wind gusts to 75 mph,
tornadoes, and localized heavy rain. The greatest risk area for
tornadoes is over southeast North Dakota into west central
Minnesota. Areas along a line from Valley City to the Fargo
Moorhead area to Detroit Lakes have already had a lot of recent
rainfall, so they are especially susceptible to additional
rainfall tonight. However, any storms tonight could produce
locally heavy rainfall. Stay weather aware.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1057 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1054 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S HALLOCK             48.75N 96.94W
08/26/2018  M66 MPH          Kittson            MN   AWOS

&&

TGRAFENA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1104 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1043 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 W KENNEDY             48.64N 97.04W
08/26/2018  M58 MPH          Kittson            MN   MESONET

            NDAWN

&&

TGRAFENA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1106 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1057 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NE STEPHEN            48.46N 96.86W
08/26/2018  M53 MPH          Marshall           MN   MESONET

&&

TGRAFENA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1109 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     TSTM WND GST     DONALDSON               48.57N 96.90W
08/26/2018  M60 MPH          KITTSON            MN   MESONET

            RWIS

&&

TGRAFENA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
1118 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2018

MNZ001-002-008-009-013>015-270500-
East Marshall MN-Red Lake MN-North Beltrami MN-Pennington MN-
West Polk MN-Norman MN-East Polk MN-
1118 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL...RED
LAKE...NORTH CENTRAL NORMAN...SOUTHEASTERN POLK...NORTHWESTERN
BELTRAMI AND PENNINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1118 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Rosewood to near Beltrami. Movement was
northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Rosewood, Dakota Junction and Thief River Falls around 1120 PM
  CDT.
  Melvin around 1125 PM CDT.
  Maple Bay around 1135 PM CDT.
  Erskine around 1150 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Thief River Falls
Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
north central and northwestern Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4802 9556 4802 9558 4785 9558 4744 9654
      4821 9638 4823 9555
TIME...MOT...LOC 0418Z 247DEG 37KT 4820 9629 4749 9643

CJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1043 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S WARREN              48.12N 96.77W
08/26/2018                   Polk               MN   PUBLIC

            2-3 INCH TREE BRANCHES BROKEN OFF

&&

TGRAFENA