Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Grand Forks, ND

204 
WWUS53 KFGF 270514
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
1214 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

MNC087-119-270524-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0156.000000T0000Z-180827T0545Z/
Polk MN-Mahnomen MN-
1214 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN POLK AND
NORTHEASTERN MAHNOMEN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
north central and northwestern Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4754 9546 4786 9558 4835 9443 4771 9442
TIME...MOT...LOC 0514Z 236DEG 59KT 4794 9536 4767 9526 

$$

MNC007-029-270545-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0156.000000T0000Z-180827T0545Z/
Beltrami MN-Clearwater MN-
1214 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN BELTRAMI AND NORTHERN CLEARWATER COUNTIES...

At 1214 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 10 miles northeast of Berner to Leonard, moving
northeast at 70 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

These severe storms will be near...
  Pinewood around 1215 AM CDT.
  Debs around 1220 AM CDT.
  Island Lake in Beltrami County and Little Rock around 1225 AM CDT.
  Red Lake, Nebish and Ponemah around 1230 AM CDT.
  Redby and Upper Red Lake around 1235 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for damaging winds. People outside should move 
to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4754 9546 4786 9558 4835 9443 4771 9442
TIME...MOT...LOC 0514Z 236DEG 59KT 4794 9536 4767 9526 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

CJ

377 
WWUS53 KFGF 270534
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
1234 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

MNC029-270543-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0156.000000T0000Z-180827T0545Z/
Clearwater MN-
1234 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN CLEARWATER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have weakened. moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
north central Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4776 9506 4800 9525 4835 9443 4782 9442
TIME...MOT...LOC 0533Z 236DEG 59KT 4810 9500 4783 9490 

$$

MNC007-270545-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0156.000000T0000Z-180827T0545Z/
Beltrami MN-
1234 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL BELTRAMI COUNTY...

At 1233 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Upper Red Lake to near Redby, moving northeast at 70
mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

These severe storms will be near...
  Upper Red Lake and Ponemah around 1235 AM CDT.
  Saum around 1245 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for damaging winds. People outside should move 
to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4776 9506 4800 9525 4835 9443 4782 9442
TIME...MOT...LOC 0533Z 236DEG 59KT 4810 9500 4783 9490 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

CJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1153 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

Continued to tweak POPs to fit current convection. Thunderstorm
complex will continue to move east-northeast and should be out of
our counties by 08Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

Watching ongoing convection, so will keep the discussion brief.
Seeing intensifying activity over far southeast ND right now, with
satellite imagery correlating the growing clouds. SPC put out a
mesoscale discussion a short while ago, talking about a potential
watch for the southern third of our FA. This growing convection
may push this watch into a quick reality. Latest HRRR runs have
been showing other activity firing over the Red River Valley by 8
to 9 pm, and lasting until just past midnight. They no longer show
any activity pushing in from western ND. So will see how things
play out tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

Rain chances return Monday night into early Tuesday across the area
as a shortwave trough moves into the region and a low pressure
system skirts by to the south through the Central Plains. With
little instability present on the cool side of this system, suspect
this will be mainly shower activity with perhaps some embedded
thunder.

For Tuesday through Thursday, expect quiet and dry weather.
Temperatures will be notably cooler Tuesday and Wednesday as the
upper trough axis swings through the Plains and dry northwest flow
aloft develops. A warming trend develops from Wednesday to Friday in
warm air advection ahead of a system moving through the Canadian
Plains.

After a breezy day Thursday amidst pressure gradient winds, chances
for showers and thunderstorms develop Thursday night through Friday
night as a shortwave trough aloft and surface front pass through the
Northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

Skies have been chaotic with thunderstorm complex moving through
the area. Sites vary from 900 ft ceilings at KBJI to clear skies
at KDVL. The storms are currently moving through the central TAF
sites, but should be mostly past KGFK and KFAR by 06Z. Some MVFR
to IFR ceilings behind the departing thunderstorms for a while,
and a few spots could see a bit of BR although not widespread.
This will continue into Monday morning, and think that more clouds
will move into KDVL and bring it down in category. All sites,
except perhaps KBJI, should improve to VFR for a time tomorrow
afternoon but then drop down again Monday evening. Winds will
shift from the northwest behind the surface cold front to the
northeast.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...JR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
731 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-280045-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh County-
731 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected to become more numerous between 8 pm
tonight and 2 am Monday morning. These storms may produce hail up
to 2 inches in diameter (possibly larger), wind gusts to 75 mph,
tornadoes, and localized heavy rain. The greatest risk area for
tornadoes is over southeast North Dakota into west central
Minnesota. Areas along a line from Valley City to the Fargo
Moorhead area to Detroit Lakes have already had a lot of recent
rainfall, so they are especially susceptible to additional
rainfall tonight. However, any storms tonight could produce
locally heavy rainfall. Stay weather aware.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1104 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1043 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 W KENNEDY             48.64N 97.04W
08/26/2018  M58 MPH          Kittson            MN   MESONET

            NDAWN

&&

TGRAFENA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1106 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1057 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NE STEPHEN            48.46N 96.86W
08/26/2018  M53 MPH          Marshall           MN   MESONET

&&

TGRAFENA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1109 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     TSTM WND GST     DONALDSON               48.57N 96.90W
08/26/2018  M60 MPH          KITTSON            MN   MESONET

            RWIS

&&

TGRAFENA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
1118 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2018

MNZ001-002-008-009-013>015-270500-
East Marshall MN-Red Lake MN-North Beltrami MN-Pennington MN-
West Polk MN-Norman MN-East Polk MN-
1118 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL...RED
LAKE...NORTH CENTRAL NORMAN...SOUTHEASTERN POLK...NORTHWESTERN
BELTRAMI AND PENNINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1118 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Rosewood to near Beltrami. Movement was
northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Rosewood, Dakota Junction and Thief River Falls around 1120 PM
  CDT.
  Melvin around 1125 PM CDT.
  Maple Bay around 1135 PM CDT.
  Erskine around 1150 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Thief River Falls
Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
north central and northwestern Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4802 9556 4802 9558 4785 9558 4744 9654
      4821 9638 4823 9555
TIME...MOT...LOC 0418Z 247DEG 37KT 4820 9629 4749 9643

CJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1043 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S WARREN              48.12N 96.77W
08/26/2018                   Polk               MN   PUBLIC

            2-3 INCH TREE BRANCHES BROKEN OFF

&&

TGRAFENA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1154 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1151 PM     TSTM WND GST     FOSSTON                 47.58N 95.75W
08/26/2018  M66 MPH          POLK               MN   AWOS

            WIND SENSOR STOPPED REPORTING AT 1151PM SO ACTUAL WIND
            SPEEDS COULD HAVE BEEN HIGHER

&&

TGRAFENA