Alert archive / North Dakota / Special Weather Statements in 2018

Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 8, 2018Ramsey County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this special weather statement at Jul 8, 2018, 4:19 AM CDT for Ramsey County, North Dakota. It was in force for 56 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 8, 2018, 4:19 AM CDT (09:19 UTC)
Expired: Jul 8, 2018, 5:15 AM CDT
In force: 56 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND

County Ramsey County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 108 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 9.3 hours before the alert went out and 239 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2704 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -145 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1745 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 16 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 63 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 3.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 8, 3:21 AM CDT, 58 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 8, 3:21 AM CDT, 58 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
321 AM CDT Sun Jul 8 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Jul 8 2018

Concerns and impacts today will be associated with two rounds of
thunderstorm activity along a slow moving surface trough. The
first round is expected to move into the Devils Lake basin and
central valley in the predawn hours. Isolated to scattered storm
coverage is expected to continue as with this activity as forcing
remains weak. There remains a threat for severe winds as Bismarck
has had reports up to 90mph and hail up to an inch with this
activity into the central portion of the FA. Will have severe
thunderstorm watch across the northern half of the CWFA to account
for this threat through the 11AM.

After a lull in activity attention turns to this afternoon with as
convergence along the sfc trough increasing as it pushes southeast
across the FA. Ahead of the trough instability will increase with
MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range and bulk shear values
around 40 to 50kts organized severe storms can be expected.
Initiation appears to start between 21Z and 00Z with activity
moving to the east. HREF 2 to 5 KM updraft helicities greater
than 150 m2/s2 show a few longer tracks south of the HWY 2
corridor in NW MN this afternoon and evening, even up to 50
percent in the neighborhood probabilities. This suggests a few
longer lived strong updrafts increasing the potential for hail up
to 2 inches and wind gusts up to 75mph. A tornado or two would
also be possible given the possibility of out flow boundary
interaction from this mornings activity. Additionally, excessive
rainfall or localized flooding threat does exist with PWats near 2
inches.

Storms are progged to move to the southeast of the area by
midnight with more stable air filtering in on north winds.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Jul 8 2018

Monday-Saturday...Guidance in good agreement indicating the storm
track across Canada during this period. Two main upper waves
propagating across Canada during this period will send cold fronts
through the region Wednesday and Saturday. The strongest forcing
will be well north of the forecast area raising questions to
severe potential (timing of these fronts will be important).
Otherwise, anticipate weak ridging to be in place. Much of this
period should be dry, with temperatures near normal values.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018

South winds 10 to 20 kts in Fargo area to Bemidji but light south
to west winds DVL, GFK, TVF areas closer to a weak boundary.
Expect light winds NE ND and far NW MN into Sunday. VFR conditions
for the most part thru the pd except near any t-storms may develop
or move through. Overall cloud bases from storms should be in the
5-6k ft range.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...Riddle

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 8, 3:51 AM CDT, 28 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
351 AM CDT Sun Jul 8 2018

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-090900-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh County-
351 AM CDT Sun Jul 8 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

2 rounds of severe storms are expected today with excessive
rainfall and or localized flooding also possible. The first
across HWY 2 and north with winds up to 75 mph possible higher and
hail up to 1.5 inches. After a lull in activity the second round
is expected to start in the 4 to 5pm time up frame along and south
of a Bemidji to Mayville to Lisbon line. These storms will be
capable of hail up to 2 inches and winds up to 75mph. A tornado or
two is also possible. Activity will move out of the area before
midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Possible thunderstorms again Wednesday and Saturday, severe
potential is uncertain at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 8, 3:44 AM CDT, 35 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
344 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2018

MNZ008-013-080915-
East Marshall MN-Pennington MN-
344 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL AND
NORTHERN PENNINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

At 343 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Thief River Falls, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Thief River Falls and Dakota Junction around 350 AM CDT.
  Mavie around 410 AM CDT.
  Goodridge around 415 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Thief River Falls
Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CDT for
northwestern Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4801 9630 4818 9638 4834 9583 4803 9573
TIME...MOT...LOC 0843Z 253DEG 27KT 4812 9624

TG

Local storm report, Jul 8, 3:56 AM CDT, 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
356 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 AM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW ROCKFORD            47.68N 99.14W
07/08/2018                   EDDY               ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE ALL OVER TOWN.

&&

JKAISER

Local storm report, Jul 8, 3:59 AM CDT, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
359 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 AM     HAIL             THIEF RIVER FALLS       48.11N 96.18W
07/08/2018  M0.75 INCH       PENNINGTON         MN   PUBLIC

            INTOWN 3 TO 5 MINUTES OF HAIL.

&&

JKAISER

Local storm report, Jul 8, 4:10 AM CDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
410 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0404 AM     TSTM WND GST     14 SW TOLNA             47.68N 98.65W
07/08/2018  M62 MPH          Eddy               ND   MESONET

            MEASURED AT NDAWN 10 N OF MCHENRY

&&

JKAISER

Special weather statement, Jul 8, 4:19 AM CDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
419 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2018

NDZ015-016-026-027-054-081015-
Nelson ND-Eastern Walsh County ND-Western Walsh County ND-Ramsey ND-
Grand Forks ND-
419 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GRAND FORKS...
NORTHERN NELSON...SOUTHERN RAMSEY AND WESTERN WALSH COUNTIES UNTIL
515 AM CDT...

At 419 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Webster to near Southam to Doyon. Movement
was northeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Doyon, Southam and Bartlett around 425 AM CDT.
  Lakota around 430 AM CDT.
  Lawton and Brocket around 440 AM CDT.
  Edmore and Whitman around 450 AM CDT.
  Adams and Dahlen around 500 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CDT for
northeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4853 9792 4839 9775 4817 9756 4799 9867
      4800 9871 4798 9874 4806 9880 4828 9902
TIME...MOT...LOC 0919Z 241DEG 40KT 4827 9896 4818 9867 4805 9857

TG

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 8, 3:44 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Pennington	31 min
Jul 8, 3:49 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami, Marshall, Pennington	56 min
Jul 8, 4:52 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Marshall, Polk	53 min
Jul 8, 5:23 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami, Lake of the Woods	37 min
Jul 8, 5:35 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	FGF	Polk	85 min
Jul 8, 5:38 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Marshall, Pennington, Polk, Red Lake	67 min
Jul 8, 6:33 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami, Clearwater, Marshall, Pennington, Polk, Red Lake	57 min
Jul 8, 6:34 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	FGF	Pennington	2 hr
Jul 8, 5:06 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Becker	24 min
Jul 8, 5:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Mahnomen	40 min
Jul 8, 5:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker	39 min
Jul 8, 5:59 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Clay	46 min
Jul 8, 6:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Clay	43 min
Jul 8, 6:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Hubbard, Otter Tail, Wadena	64 min
Jul 8, 6:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Otter Tail	42 min
Jul 8, 3:18 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Eddy, Grand Forks, Griggs, Nelson, Ramsey and 1 more	57 min
Jul 8, 4:13 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Eddy, Grand Forks, Griggs, Nelson, Ramsey and 2 more	62 min
Jul 8, 6:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Ransom, Richland, Sargent	52 min
Jul 8, 6:37 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Ransom, Richland, Sargent	38 min
Jul 8, 6:41 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Sargent	49 min
Jul 8, 6:56 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Cass	34 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in North Dakota, 2018 Every special weather statement in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.