Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Grand Forks, ND

318 
WWUS53 KFGF 080914
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
414 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2018

MNC007-089-113-080945-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0103.000000T0000Z-180708T0945Z/
Marshall MN-Beltrami MN-Pennington MN-
414 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL...WEST CENTRAL BELTRAMI AND NORTHEASTERN
PENNINGTON COUNTIES...

At 414 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Mavie, or 10
miles east of Thief River Falls, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Goodridge around 425 AM CDT.
  Espelie around 440 AM CDT.
  Grygla around 445 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4808 9611 4817 9612 4836 9546 4803 9533
TIME...MOT...LOC 0914Z 256DEG 26KT 4816 9595 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

TG

291 
WWUS53 KFGF 080940
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
440 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2018

MNC007-089-113-080950-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0103.000000T0000Z-180708T0945Z/
Marshall MN-Beltrami MN-Pennington MN-
440 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL...WEST
CENTRAL BELTRAMI AND NORTHEASTERN PENNINGTON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
445 AM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail
and gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CDT for
north central and northwestern Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4808 9611 4817 9612 4836 9546 4803 9533
TIME...MOT...LOC 0940Z 253DEG 23KT 4818 9581 

$$

TG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
321 AM CDT Sun Jul 8 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Jul 8 2018

Concerns and impacts today will be associated with two rounds of
thunderstorm activity along a slow moving surface trough. The
first round is expected to move into the Devils Lake basin and
central valley in the predawn hours. Isolated to scattered storm
coverage is expected to continue as with this activity as forcing
remains weak. There remains a threat for severe winds as Bismarck
has had reports up to 90mph and hail up to an inch with this
activity into the central portion of the FA. Will have severe
thunderstorm watch across the northern half of the CWFA to account
for this threat through the 11AM.

After a lull in activity attention turns to this afternoon with as
convergence along the sfc trough increasing as it pushes southeast
across the FA. Ahead of the trough instability will increase with
MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range and bulk shear values
around 40 to 50kts organized severe storms can be expected.
Initiation appears to start between 21Z and 00Z with activity
moving to the east. HREF 2 to 5 KM updraft helicities greater
than 150 m2/s2 show a few longer tracks south of the HWY 2
corridor in NW MN this afternoon and evening, even up to 50
percent in the neighborhood probabilities. This suggests a few
longer lived strong updrafts increasing the potential for hail up
to 2 inches and wind gusts up to 75mph. A tornado or two would
also be possible given the possibility of out flow boundary
interaction from this mornings activity. Additionally, excessive
rainfall or localized flooding threat does exist with PWats near 2
inches.

Storms are progged to move to the southeast of the area by
midnight with more stable air filtering in on north winds.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Jul 8 2018

Monday-Saturday...Guidance in good agreement indicating the storm
track across Canada during this period. Two main upper waves
propagating across Canada during this period will send cold fronts
through the region Wednesday and Saturday. The strongest forcing
will be well north of the forecast area raising questions to
severe potential (timing of these fronts will be important).
Otherwise, anticipate weak ridging to be in place. Much of this
period should be dry, with temperatures near normal values.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018

South winds 10 to 20 kts in Fargo area to Bemidji but light south
to west winds DVL, GFK, TVF areas closer to a weak boundary.
Expect light winds NE ND and far NW MN into Sunday. VFR conditions
for the most part thru the pd except near any t-storms may develop
or move through. Overall cloud bases from storms should be in the
5-6k ft range.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...Riddle

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
421 AM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018

MNZ001>004-007-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054-
080930-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-West Marshall-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh County-
421 AM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Apparent temperatures or feels like values will rise into the
100 to 105F range across eastern North Dakota and parts of far
northwest Minnesota this afternoon and early evening.

Late this evening thunderstorms, some severe, are expected to
develop across central ND and spread east through the overnight
into Sunday morning. Hail up to 2 inches with winds up to 75mph
will be the primary threats along with excessive rainfall or
localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorms are possible again Sunday afternoon and Wednesday
night. Storms on Sunday will be capable of hail up to 1.5 inches
and winds up to 75mph. Excessive rainfall or localized flooding is
also a threat on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

MNZ005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-080930-
Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-
Red Lake-East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-
421 AM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of west central
and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Late this evening thunderstorms, some severe, are expected to
develop across central ND and spread east through the overnight
into Sunday morning. Hail up to 2 inches with winds up to 75mph
will be the primary threats along with excessive rainfall or
localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorms are possible again Sunday afternoon and Wednesday
night. Storms on Sunday will be capable of hail up to 1.5 inches
and winds up to 75mph. Excessive rainfall or localized flooding is
also a threat on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

JK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
344 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2018

MNZ008-013-080915-
East Marshall MN-Pennington MN-
344 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL AND
NORTHERN PENNINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

At 343 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Thief River Falls, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Thief River Falls and Dakota Junction around 350 AM CDT.
  Mavie around 410 AM CDT.
  Goodridge around 415 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Thief River Falls
Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CDT for
northwestern Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4801 9630 4818 9638 4834 9583 4803 9573
TIME...MOT...LOC 0843Z 253DEG 27KT 4812 9624

TG