Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Grand Forks, ND

088 
WWUS53 KFGF 080931
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
431 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2018

NDC005-027-071-080940-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-180708T1015Z/
Benson ND-Ramsey ND-Eddy ND-
431 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BENSON...
SOUTHEASTERN RAMSEY AND EASTERN EDDY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CDT for
southeastern and northeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4818 9757 4779 9737 4759 9730 4757 9826
      4762 9828 4771 9830 4798 9838
TIME...MOT...LOC 0930Z 263DEG 49KT 4789 9814 4776 9798 4761 9800 

$$

NDC035-039-063-091-097-081015-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-180708T1015Z/
Grand Forks ND-Nelson ND-Traill ND-Griggs ND-Steele ND-
431 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 AM CDT
FOR WESTERN GRAND FORKS...SOUTHEASTERN NELSON...NORTHWESTERN
TRAILL...NORTHEASTERN GRIGGS AND NORTHERN STEELE COUNTIES...

At 430 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 8 miles north of McVille to near Kloten to near
Sharon, moving east at 55 mph.

These are very dangerous storms.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters and radar.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect 
         considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. 
         Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

These severe storms will be near...
  Sharon around 435 AM CDT.
  Logan Center and Petersburg around 440 AM CDT.
  Niagara around 445 AM CDT.
  Kempton, Northwood and McCanna around 450 AM CDT.
  Larimore and Hatton around 455 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind
speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are
especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be
overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the
lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause
serious injury and significant property damage.

These storms are producing widespread wind damage. SEEK SHELTER NOW 
inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4818 9757 4779 9737 4759 9730 4757 9826
      4762 9828 4771 9830 4798 9838
TIME...MOT...LOC 0930Z 263DEG 49KT 4789 9814 4776 9798 4761 9800 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...80MPH
 
$$

TG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
321 AM CDT Sun Jul 8 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Jul 8 2018

Concerns and impacts today will be associated with two rounds of
thunderstorm activity along a slow moving surface trough. The
first round is expected to move into the Devils Lake basin and
central valley in the predawn hours. Isolated to scattered storm
coverage is expected to continue as with this activity as forcing
remains weak. There remains a threat for severe winds as Bismarck
has had reports up to 90mph and hail up to an inch with this
activity into the central portion of the FA. Will have severe
thunderstorm watch across the northern half of the CWFA to account
for this threat through the 11AM.

After a lull in activity attention turns to this afternoon with as
convergence along the sfc trough increasing as it pushes southeast
across the FA. Ahead of the trough instability will increase with
MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range and bulk shear values
around 40 to 50kts organized severe storms can be expected.
Initiation appears to start between 21Z and 00Z with activity
moving to the east. HREF 2 to 5 KM updraft helicities greater
than 150 m2/s2 show a few longer tracks south of the HWY 2
corridor in NW MN this afternoon and evening, even up to 50
percent in the neighborhood probabilities. This suggests a few
longer lived strong updrafts increasing the potential for hail up
to 2 inches and wind gusts up to 75mph. A tornado or two would
also be possible given the possibility of out flow boundary
interaction from this mornings activity. Additionally, excessive
rainfall or localized flooding threat does exist with PWats near 2
inches.

Storms are progged to move to the southeast of the area by
midnight with more stable air filtering in on north winds.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Jul 8 2018

Monday-Saturday...Guidance in good agreement indicating the storm
track across Canada during this period. Two main upper waves
propagating across Canada during this period will send cold fronts
through the region Wednesday and Saturday. The strongest forcing
will be well north of the forecast area raising questions to
severe potential (timing of these fronts will be important).
Otherwise, anticipate weak ridging to be in place. Much of this
period should be dry, with temperatures near normal values.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sat Jul 7 2018

South winds 10 to 20 kts in Fargo area to Bemidji but light south
to west winds DVL, GFK, TVF areas closer to a weak boundary.
Expect light winds NE ND and far NW MN into Sunday. VFR conditions
for the most part thru the pd except near any t-storms may develop
or move through. Overall cloud bases from storms should be in the
5-6k ft range.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...Riddle

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
351 AM CDT Sun Jul 8 2018

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-090900-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh County-
351 AM CDT Sun Jul 8 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

2 rounds of severe storms are expected today with excessive
rainfall and or localized flooding also possible. The first
across HWY 2 and north with winds up to 75 mph possible higher and
hail up to 1.5 inches. After a lull in activity the second round
is expected to start in the 4 to 5pm time up frame along and south
of a Bemidji to Mayville to Lisbon line. These storms will be
capable of hail up to 2 inches and winds up to 75mph. A tornado or
two is also possible. Activity will move out of the area before
midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Possible thunderstorms again Wednesday and Saturday, severe
potential is uncertain at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
344 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2018

MNZ008-013-080915-
East Marshall MN-Pennington MN-
344 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL AND
NORTHERN PENNINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

At 343 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Thief River Falls, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Thief River Falls and Dakota Junction around 350 AM CDT.
  Mavie around 410 AM CDT.
  Goodridge around 415 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Thief River Falls
Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CDT for
northwestern Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4801 9630 4818 9638 4834 9583 4803 9573
TIME...MOT...LOC 0843Z 253DEG 27KT 4812 9624

TG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
356 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 AM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW ROCKFORD            47.68N 99.14W
07/08/2018                   EDDY               ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE ALL OVER TOWN.

&&

JKAISER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
359 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 AM     HAIL             THIEF RIVER FALLS       48.11N 96.18W
07/08/2018  M0.75 INCH       PENNINGTON         MN   PUBLIC

            INTOWN 3 TO 5 MINUTES OF HAIL.

&&

JKAISER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
410 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0404 AM     TSTM WND GST     14 SW TOLNA             47.68N 98.65W
07/08/2018  M62 MPH          Eddy               ND   MESONET

            MEASURED AT NDAWN 10 N OF MCHENRY

&&

JKAISER