Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Grand Forks, ND

757 
WWUS53 KFGF 290911
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
411 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

NDC091-290920-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-180629T0945Z/
Steele ND-
411 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN STEELE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning has moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 AM CDT for
northwestern Minnesota...and southeastern and northeastern North
Dakota.

LAT...LON 4694 9768 4727 9733 4774 9736 4787 9650
      4730 9626 4694 9620
TIME...MOT...LOC 0910Z 264DEG 52KT 4770 9707 4730 9702 4700 9721 

$$

MNC027-107-119-NDC017-035-097-290945-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-180629T0945Z/
Clay MN-Norman MN-Polk MN-Grand Forks ND-Cass ND-Traill ND-
411 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN CLAY...NORMAN...SOUTHWESTERN POLK...SOUTHEASTERN GRAND
FORKS...NORTHERN CASS AND TRAILL COUNTIES...

At 410 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Reynolds to Kelso to Amenia, moving east at 60
mph.

These are very dangerous storms.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect 
         considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. 
         Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

These severe storms will be near...
  Halstad, Hendrum and Climax around 420 AM CDT.
  Brooktree Park, Argusville and Harwood around 425 AM CDT.
  Georgetown, Kragnes and North River around 430 AM CDT.
  Ada, Hadler and Harold around 435 AM CDT.
  Averill around 440 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include West
Argusville and American Crystal Sugar.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 70 and 130.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind
speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are
especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be
overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the
lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause
serious injury and significant property damage.

&&

LAT...LON 4694 9768 4727 9733 4774 9736 4787 9650
      4730 9626 4694 9620
TIME...MOT...LOC 0910Z 264DEG 52KT 4770 9707 4730 9702 4700 9721 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...80MPH
 
$$

TG

999 
WWUS53 KFGF 290926
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
426 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

MNC027-107-119-NDC017-035-097-290945-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-180629T0945Z/
Clay MN-Norman MN-Polk MN-Grand Forks ND-Cass ND-Traill ND-
426 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN CLAY...NORMAN...SOUTHWESTERN POLK...SOUTHEASTERN GRAND
FORKS...NORTHEASTERN CASS AND EASTERN TRAILL COUNTIES...

At 425 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Crookston to near Lockhart to Brooktree Park, moving
east at 65 mph.

These are very dangerous storms.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Public.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect 
         considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. 
         Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

These severe storms will be near...
  Lockhart, Crookston and Harold around 430 AM CDT.
  Felton and Borup around 445 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include West
Argusville and American Crystal Sugar.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 71 and 116.

This storm has a history of producing wind damage. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind
speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are
especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be
overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the
lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause
serious injury and significant property damage.

&&

LAT...LON 4695 9746 4739 9712 4779 9704 4787 9650
      4730 9626 4694 9620
TIME...MOT...LOC 0925Z 252DEG 58KT 4776 9662 4744 9665 4702 9691 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...80MPH
 
$$

TG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
324 AM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018

Convection timing and strength will be the main issues for the
period.

Ongoing MCS entering our western counties will continue to push
eastward early this morning. Southeasterly winds have been feeding
rich moisture with MU CAPE around 3000 J/kg into the complex.
Effective deep layer bulk shear is in the 50-70 kt range. The
complex has a history of producing 80 mph or greater winds, and
there have been indications of some brief QLCS circulations. Bulk
shear from 0-3km is out of the southwest, so any part of the line that
starts bulging north or northeast will be prime for producing a
brief spin up. Will also have to watch for enhanced convective
activity along the warm front, which is stretched across the
northern counties. See little reason for the thunderstorm complex
to fizzle like the RAP shows, and think we will continue to have
severe potential as it crosses the CWA. HRRR is doing a decent job
depicting the line, but is too slow. The storms will continue to
impact the western counties for the next hour or so, and will be
nearing the Red River around 10Z or so, pushing off out of our MN
counties a couple hours later. Tried to time the complex as it
moves through, but will make some further adjustments to timing as
it comes through.

The main shortwave generating this thunderstorm complex will
quickly lift off to north of the Great Lakes by this afternoon.
Our region will remain under southwesterly flow aloft. There is
the possibility of another weak shortwave moving through and
providing some upper support for storms to redevelop. The warm
front will be lifting north towards the Canadian border this
morning, and a cold front will be entering the west by afternoon
as the surface low moves into the Red River Valley. Highs will be
near 90 in the southern counties, with low to mid 70s in the
northwest behind the cold front. CAM models only have some weak
showers and are not very impressive for redevelopment this
afternoon. Will keep some broadbrushed 20-40 POPs, and refine
later as we see how this morning convection plays out.

Southwesterly flow aloft will continue into tonight, with the cold
front pushing the rest of the way through and the surface low
entering the MN arrowhead. Most of the models have some scattered
post frontal precip, so kept our low POPs going for much of the
area. Winds will keep us mixed and there will be plenty of
lingering clouds, so have lows mainly in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018

Unsettled weather will continue through most of the long term.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler with highs near or below the 80
mark behind the cold front over the weekend. Weak shortwaves will
be embedded in the broad trough across the region, although timing
and placement is pretty uncertain so will keep fairly low POPs
that the blend gives us. The upper flow briefly becomes more zonal
at the beginning of the work week, but then shifts back to the
southwest. The GFS and ECMWF both have good signal for some sort
of precipitation event Tuesday into Tuesday night. Upper ridging
builds in strongly for mid-week, with Independence Day and the
day afternoon looking pretty hot and some ridge riding
thunderstorms not out of the question, especially in the north.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Line of thunderstorms will sweep through the area tonight...likely
dropping cigs and vis to MVFR or IFR levels. Should be reaching
DVL by 8Z and BJI by 12Z. Strong winds are likely with this
line...and will update TAFs to increase winds even more if
upstream obs warrant it.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Knutsvig

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
351 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-290900-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh County-
351 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
early this morning, mainly south of the highway 200 corridor. By
late this morning, through the afternoon and into the early
evening, isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible,
but mainly between the highway 2 and 200 corridor. Finally, after
midnight, the greatest risk for severe storms will arrive. These
storms will mainly affect areas along and north of the Interstate
94 corridor, but could also affect areas to the south as well.
These storms will have the potential to produce hail of 2 inches
in diameter or larger, wind gusts of 75 mph or greater, isolated
tornadoes, and localized heavy rain. Since the greatest risk for
storms will occur when most people are sleeping tonight, plan to
have a way to receive watches and warnings if and when they are
issued. Have a plan of action before going to bed tonight!

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

It will stay active, with periodic chances for thunderstorms
throughout.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
307 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 SW CANDO              48.48N 99.22W
06/29/2018  M58 MPH          Towner             ND   AWOS

            AWOS MEASURED WIND GUST TO 58 MPH.

&&

AMOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
319 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 W DEVILS LAKE         48.11N 98.92W
06/29/2018  M54 MPH          Ramsey             ND   AWOS

&&

AMOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
331 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

NDZ006-007-290900-
Towner ND-Cavalier ND-
331 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TOWNER AND WESTERN
CAVALIER COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM CDT...

At 331 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles east of Amourdale to near Egeland.
Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Munich, Rocklake, Clyde, Sarles, Egeland, Calio and Calvin.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 AM CDT for
northeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4900 9924 4900 9870 4880 9854 4854 9888
      4854 9897 4847 9897 4844 9901 4890 9934
TIME...MOT...LOC 0831Z 222DEG 29KT 4889 9924 4860 9903

CJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
335 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0321 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 NW COOPERSTOWN        47.49N 98.18W
06/29/2018  M96 MPH          Griggs             ND   PUBLIC

            PERSONAL DAVIS WEATHER STATION REPORTED 96 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

AMOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
338 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0329 AM     TSTM WND GST     8 SW FINLEY             47.43N 97.96W
06/29/2018  M57 MPH          Steele             ND   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC PERSONAL WEATHER UNDERGROUND STATION REPORTED WIND
            GUST OF 57 MPH.

&&

AMOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
346 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 AM     TSTM WND GST     7 SE FINLEY             46.69N 97.69W
06/29/2018  M63 MPH          Barnes             ND   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC PERSONAL WEATHER UNDERGROUND STATION REPORTED WIND
            GUST OF 63 MPH.

&&

AMOORE