Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Grand Forks, ND

041 
WWUS53 KFGF 290843
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
343 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

NDC005-095-290853-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0075.000000T0000Z-180629T0915Z/
Benson ND-Towner ND-
343 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BENSON AND
SOUTHEASTERN TOWNER COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 AM CDT for
northeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4879 9854 4845 9787 4808 9875 4836 9897
TIME...MOT...LOC 0843Z 233DEG 35KT 4844 9879 4821 9841 

$$

NDC019-071-099-290915-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0075.000000T0000Z-180629T0915Z/
Cavalier ND-Ramsey ND-Walsh ND-
343 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 AM CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CAVALIER...NORTHEASTERN RAMSEY AND NORTHWESTERN
WALSH COUNTIES...

At 343 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Starkweather to near Brocket, moving northeast at
40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Lawton around 350 AM CDT.
  Hampden around 355 AM CDT.
  Derrick around 400 AM CDT.
  Loma around 410 AM CDT.
  Adams and Nekoma around 415 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4879 9854 4845 9787 4808 9875 4836 9897
TIME...MOT...LOC 0843Z 233DEG 35KT 4844 9879 4821 9841 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Knutsvig

309 
WWUS53 KFGF 290909
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
409 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

NDC019-071-099-290919-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0075.000000T0000Z-180629T0915Z/
Cavalier ND-Ramsey ND-Walsh ND-
409 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CAVALIER...
NORTHEASTERN RAMSEY AND NORTHWESTERN WALSH COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
415 AM CDT...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 AM CDT for
northeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4879 9854 4845 9787 4808 9875 4836 9897
TIME...MOT...LOC 0909Z 230DEG 40KT 4861 9848 4838 9810 

$$

Knutsvig

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
324 AM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018

Convection timing and strength will be the main issues for the
period.

Ongoing MCS entering our western counties will continue to push
eastward early this morning. Southeasterly winds have been feeding
rich moisture with MU CAPE around 3000 J/kg into the complex.
Effective deep layer bulk shear is in the 50-70 kt range. The
complex has a history of producing 80 mph or greater winds, and
there have been indications of some brief QLCS circulations. Bulk
shear from 0-3km is out of the southwest, so any part of the line that
starts bulging north or northeast will be prime for producing a
brief spin up. Will also have to watch for enhanced convective
activity along the warm front, which is stretched across the
northern counties. See little reason for the thunderstorm complex
to fizzle like the RAP shows, and think we will continue to have
severe potential as it crosses the CWA. HRRR is doing a decent job
depicting the line, but is too slow. The storms will continue to
impact the western counties for the next hour or so, and will be
nearing the Red River around 10Z or so, pushing off out of our MN
counties a couple hours later. Tried to time the complex as it
moves through, but will make some further adjustments to timing as
it comes through.

The main shortwave generating this thunderstorm complex will
quickly lift off to north of the Great Lakes by this afternoon.
Our region will remain under southwesterly flow aloft. There is
the possibility of another weak shortwave moving through and
providing some upper support for storms to redevelop. The warm
front will be lifting north towards the Canadian border this
morning, and a cold front will be entering the west by afternoon
as the surface low moves into the Red River Valley. Highs will be
near 90 in the southern counties, with low to mid 70s in the
northwest behind the cold front. CAM models only have some weak
showers and are not very impressive for redevelopment this
afternoon. Will keep some broadbrushed 20-40 POPs, and refine
later as we see how this morning convection plays out.

Southwesterly flow aloft will continue into tonight, with the cold
front pushing the rest of the way through and the surface low
entering the MN arrowhead. Most of the models have some scattered
post frontal precip, so kept our low POPs going for much of the
area. Winds will keep us mixed and there will be plenty of
lingering clouds, so have lows mainly in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018

Unsettled weather will continue through most of the long term.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler with highs near or below the 80
mark behind the cold front over the weekend. Weak shortwaves will
be embedded in the broad trough across the region, although timing
and placement is pretty uncertain so will keep fairly low POPs
that the blend gives us. The upper flow briefly becomes more zonal
at the beginning of the work week, but then shifts back to the
southwest. The GFS and ECMWF both have good signal for some sort
of precipitation event Tuesday into Tuesday night. Upper ridging
builds in strongly for mid-week, with Independence Day and the
day afternoon looking pretty hot and some ridge riding
thunderstorms not out of the question, especially in the north.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Line of thunderstorms will sweep through the area tonight...likely
dropping cigs and vis to MVFR or IFR levels. Should be reaching
DVL by 8Z and BJI by 12Z. Strong winds are likely with this
line...and will update TAFs to increase winds even more if
upstream obs warrant it.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...Knutsvig

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
351 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-290900-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh County-
351 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
early this morning, mainly south of the highway 200 corridor. By
late this morning, through the afternoon and into the early
evening, isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible,
but mainly between the highway 2 and 200 corridor. Finally, after
midnight, the greatest risk for severe storms will arrive. These
storms will mainly affect areas along and north of the Interstate
94 corridor, but could also affect areas to the south as well.
These storms will have the potential to produce hail of 2 inches
in diameter or larger, wind gusts of 75 mph or greater, isolated
tornadoes, and localized heavy rain. Since the greatest risk for
storms will occur when most people are sleeping tonight, plan to
have a way to receive watches and warnings if and when they are
issued. Have a plan of action before going to bed tonight!

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

It will stay active, with periodic chances for thunderstorms
throughout.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
950 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLIMAX                  47.61N 96.81W
06/28/2018                   POLK               MN   PUBLIC

            A FEW LARGE 3-4 INCH DIAMTER TREE BRANCHES BROKEN DOWN IN
            TOWN. A FEW MINUTES OF PEA TO PENNY SIZED HAIL AS WELL.

0225 PM     HAIL             2 NE LAVINIA            47.54N 94.78W
06/28/2018  E1.50 INCH       Beltrami           MN   PUBLIC

            HAIL FELL FOR SEVERAL MINUTES. LARGEST STONES RANGED FROM
            1.25 TO 1.5 INCH DIAMETER. REPORT AND PHOTO POSTED TO
            SOCIAL MEDIA.

0240 PM     HAIL             3 E FERTILE             47.53N 96.23W
06/28/2018  E1.00 INCH       Polk               MN   PUBLIC

0245 PM     HAIL             5 W TRAIL               47.78N 95.81W
06/28/2018  E1.00 INCH       Polk               MN   PUBLIC

            PENNY TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. SOME 2-3
            INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES BROKEN DOWN IN YARD.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
951 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             2 N CROOKSTON           47.80N 96.61W
06/28/2018  E1.00 INCH       Polk               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0244 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 WSW RINDAL            47.48N 96.19W
06/28/2018                   Norman             MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BRIEF FUNNEL REPORTED. TIME AND LOCATION ESTIMATED BASED
            ON RADAR.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1020 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     HAIL             4 NW LARIMORE           47.95N 97.69W
06/28/2018  E1.75 INCH       Grand Forks        ND   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAY 2, ABOUT 3 MILES WEST OF ND18
            INTERSECTION.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
301 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 AM     TSTM WND GST     7 E LEEDS               48.29N 99.29W
06/29/2018  M56 MPH          Benson             ND   MESONET

            LEEDS RWIS MEASURED WIND GUST OF 56.5 MPH.

&&

AMOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
307 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 SW CANDO              48.48N 99.22W
06/29/2018  M58 MPH          Towner             ND   AWOS

            AWOS MEASURED WIND GUST TO 58 MPH.

&&

AMOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
319 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 W DEVILS LAKE         48.11N 98.92W
06/29/2018  M54 MPH          Ramsey             ND   AWOS

&&

AMOORE