Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2018

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Grand Forks, ND

June 29, 2018Benson County, Ramsey County, Towner County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 29, 2018, 1:48 AM CDT for Benson County, Ramsey County, Towner County, North Dakota. It was in force for 57 min. 5 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jun 29, 2018, 1:48 AM CDT (06:48 UTC)
Expired: Jun 29, 2018, 2:45 AM CDT
In force: 57 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Benson County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Towner County, ND

The radar

The Minot AFB radar (KMBX), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jun 29, 2:35 AM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	Leeds, ND	A FEW LARGE 3-5 INCH DIAMTER TREE BRANCHES DOWN AROUND TOWN.
Jun 29, 2:48 AM CDT	TSTM WND GST 56	7 E Leeds, ND	LEEDS RWIS MEASURED WIND GUST OF 56.5 MPH.
Jun 29, 2:48 AM CDT	TSTM WND GST 56.5	7 E Leeds, ND	LEEDS RWIS MEASURED WIND GUST OF 56.5 MPH.
Jun 29, 2:55 AM CDT	TSTM WND GST 58	1 Sw Cando, ND	AWOS MEASURED WIND GUST TO 58 MPH.
Jun 29, 2:55 AM CDT	TSTM WND GST 58	2 Wsw Cando, ND	AWOS MEASURED WIND GUST TO 58 MPH AT THE CANDO AIRPORT /K9D7/.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 47 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 28, 10:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	9 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 6.8 hours before the alert went out and 193 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2612 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -51 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1800 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 84 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 172 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.4
Supercell composite: 11.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

442 
WUUS53 KFGF 290648
SVRFGF
NDC005-071-095-290745-
/O.NEW.KFGF.SV.W.0068.180629T0648Z-180629T0745Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
148 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

The National Weather Service in Grand Forks has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Benson County in northeastern North Dakota...
  Towner County in northeastern North Dakota...
  West central Ramsey County in northeastern North Dakota...

* Until 245 AM CDT.

* At 147 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Shell Valley to near Pleasant Lake to 7 miles
  northeast of Anamoose, moving east at 30 mph. 

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Severe thunderstorms will be near...
  Pleasant Lake around 150 AM CDT.
  Knox around 200 AM CDT.
  York around 215 AM CDT.
  Esmond around 220 AM CDT.
  Leeds around 225 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4837 9985 4837 9949 4900 9953 4900 9900
      4837 9898 4785 9928 4785 9981 4802 9981
      4802 9985
TIME...MOT...LOC 0647Z 270DEG 27KT 4884 9989 4838 9985 4797 10014 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Knutsvig

1 follow-up statement

862 
WWUS53 KFGF 290719
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
219 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

NDC005-071-095-290745-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-180629T0745Z/
Benson ND-Towner ND-Ramsey ND-
219 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 AM CDT
FOR BENSON...TOWNER AND WEST CENTRAL RAMSEY COUNTIES...

At 218 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Esmond to near Maddock to near Flora, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

These severe storms will be near...
  Flora and Maddock around 220 AM CDT.
  Baker around 230 AM CDT.
  Harlow around 235 AM CDT.
  Minnewaukan around 240 AM CDT.
  Brinsmade, Leeds and Penn around 245 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4899 9900 4837 9898 4785 9928 4785 9978
      4791 9981 4802 9981 4802 9985 4809 9985
      4813 9984 4836 9981 4837 9980 4837 9949
      4890 9952 4899 9949
TIME...MOT...LOC 0718Z 241DEG 40KT 4809 9977 4801 9959 4790 9941 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Knutsvig

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 28, 11:55 PM CDT, 1 hour 53 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 28, 11:55 PM CDT, 1 hour 53 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1155 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Updated forecast to increase chances of rain as the line of
thunderstorms comes through tonight. Also, tried to get timing
down to the hour. It looks like it will be around 3 AM at Devils
Lake, 5 AM Grand Forks/Fargo, and 7 AM Baudette/Bemidji/Park
Rapids. Damaging winds will be the biggest threat although hail
and isolated mesovortex-type tornadoes not out of the question.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Ongoing thunderstorm activity is tied to convergence near warm front
that has lifted north over our CWA. Northern extent of upper ridge
has flattened and very weak impulses may be aiding in thunderstorm
development near frontal zone. CAP has weakened and strong deep
layer shear, increasing BL moisture/instability have led to severe
thunderstorm development with some supercells. Initiation could
occur at most locations and severe potential may continue through
the evening. We are still expecting one or several complexes to
develop and track across the region after roughly 8-9Z and may
continue to impact our eastern CWA through Friday morning. Supercell
potential early on raises the possibility for hail 2" or larger and
tornado potential. Activity tonight is still shown by some CAMs to
develop into possible bow and raises the possibility of a large scale
damaging wind event.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Unsettled pattern expected through the extended periods as H5
ridge flattens and zonal flow eventually develops by late next
week. This will support potential for cold frontal passages
followed by quick temperatures recovery. Consensus keeps
thunderstorm possibilities in place, but due to progressive nature
of these embedded impulses through the extended overall
confidence isn't high. For Friday/Friday night we may see
redevelopment with cold pool in and southwest flow in place, but
guidance is very inconstant in coverage and signal. There could
be enough instability to support a few strong updrafts in the
afternoon Temperatures should be cooler this weekend (near normal
in the 80s), but recovery to above normal (possibly 90s) by late
next week is expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Line of thunderstorms will sweep through the area tonight...likely
dropping cigs and vis to MVFR or IFR levels. Should be reaching
DVL by 8Z and BJI by 12Z. Strong winds are likely with this
line...and will update TAFs to increase winds even more if
upstream obs warrant it.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Knutsvig
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...DJR
AVIATION...Knutsvig

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 28, 3:51 AM CDT, 21 hours 57 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
351 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-290900-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh County-
351 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
early this morning, mainly south of the highway 200 corridor. By
late this morning, through the afternoon and into the early
evening, isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible,
but mainly between the highway 2 and 200 corridor. Finally, after
midnight, the greatest risk for severe storms will arrive. These
storms will mainly affect areas along and north of the Interstate
94 corridor, but could also affect areas to the south as well.
These storms will have the potential to produce hail of 2 inches
in diameter or larger, wind gusts of 75 mph or greater, isolated
tornadoes, and localized heavy rain. Since the greatest risk for
storms will occur when most people are sleeping tonight, plan to
have a way to receive watches and warnings if and when they are
issued. Have a plan of action before going to bed tonight!

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

It will stay active, with periodic chances for thunderstorms
throughout.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 28, 8:54 PM CDT, 4 hours 54 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
854 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             5 SW BAKER              48.11N 99.72W
06/28/2018  E1.00 INCH       Benson             ND   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC ESTIMATED PEA TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

&&

AMOORE

Local storm report, Jun 28, 9:01 PM CDT, 4 hours 47 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
901 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     HAIL             1 NE EAST GRAND FORKS   47.94N 97.00W
06/28/2018  E1.25 INCH       Polk               MN   PUBLIC

            PHOTO RELAYED THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA SHOWS HAIL SLIGHTLY
            LARGER THAN QUARTER SIZED.

&&

AMOORE

Local storm report, Jun 28, 9:10 PM CDT, 4 hours 38 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
910 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     HAIL             EAST GRAND FORKS        47.93N 97.02W
06/28/2018  E0.88 INCH       POLK               MN   PUBLIC

            PHOTO RELAYED THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA SHOWS HAIL JUST
            SMALLER THAN QUARTER SIZED.

&&

AMOORE

Local storm report, Jun 28, 9:50 PM CDT, 3 hours 58 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
950 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLIMAX                  47.61N 96.81W
06/28/2018                   POLK               MN   PUBLIC

            A FEW LARGE 3-4 INCH DIAMTER TREE BRANCHES BROKEN DOWN IN
            TOWN. A FEW MINUTES OF PEA TO PENNY SIZED HAIL AS WELL.

0225 PM     HAIL             2 NE LAVINIA            47.54N 94.78W
06/28/2018  E1.50 INCH       Beltrami           MN   PUBLIC

            HAIL FELL FOR SEVERAL MINUTES. LARGEST STONES RANGED FROM
            1.25 TO 1.5 INCH DIAMETER. REPORT AND PHOTO POSTED TO
            SOCIAL MEDIA.

0240 PM     HAIL             3 E FERTILE             47.53N 96.23W
06/28/2018  E1.00 INCH       Polk               MN   PUBLIC

0245 PM     HAIL             5 W TRAIL               47.78N 95.81W
06/28/2018  E1.00 INCH       Polk               MN   PUBLIC

            PENNY TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. SOME 2-3
            INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES BROKEN DOWN IN YARD.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jun 28, 9:51 PM CDT, 3 hours 57 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
951 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             2 N CROOKSTON           47.80N 96.61W
06/28/2018  E1.00 INCH       Polk               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0244 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 WSW RINDAL            47.48N 96.19W
06/28/2018                   Norman             MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BRIEF FUNNEL REPORTED. TIME AND LOCATION ESTIMATED BASED
            ON RADAR.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jun 28, 10:20 PM CDT, 3 hours 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1020 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     HAIL             4 NW LARIMORE           47.95N 97.69W
06/28/2018  E1.75 INCH       Grand Forks        ND   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAY 2, ABOUT 3 MILES WEST OF ND18
            INTERSECTION.

&&

GGUST

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 28, 8:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson	28 min
Jun 29, 2:08 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Eddy, Ramsey	67 min
Jun 29, 2:27 AM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Benson, Ramsey	14 min
Jun 29, 2:44 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cavalier, Towner	46 min
Jun 29, 2:45 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Ramsey, Towner	45 min
Jun 29, 2:59 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Barnes, Cass, Grand Forks, Griggs, Steele, Traill	61 min
Jun 29, 3:15 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Eddy, Grand Forks, Griggs, Nelson, Ramsey and 2 more	60 min
Jun 29, 3:16 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Barnes, Cass, Ransom, Sargent	59 min
Jun 29, 3:30 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Cavalier, Ramsey, Towner, Walsh	45 min
Jun 29, 3:31 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Towner	29 min
Jun 29, 3:40 AM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Grand Forks, Nelson, Steele	35 min
Jun 29, 3:51 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cass, Grand Forks, Steele, Traill	54 min
Jun 29, 3:58 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Grand Forks, Nelson, Walsh	47 min
Jun 29, 4:06 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cass, Ransom, Richland, Sargent	54 min
Jun 29, 4:25 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Grand Forks, Traill, Walsh	65 min
Jun 29, 4:57 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Richland	63 min
Jun 29, 5:05 AM CDT	High Wind Warning	FGF	Benson, Cavalier, Eddy, Grand Forks, Griggs, Nelson and 5 more	4 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2018 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.